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"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
A film director is dying of cancer. His greatest film would have told the story of a European village as the last hour of 999 AD approached—bringing Armageddon. Now that story will never be told. But he’s still working it out in his head, making a film that no one will ever see.
Mexico City, 1988. Long before iTunes or MP3s, you said "I love you" with a mixtape. Meche, awkward and fifteen, discovers how to cast spells using music, and with her friends Sebastian and Daniela will piece together their broken families, and even find love... Two decades after abandoning the metropolis, Meche returns for her estranged father's funeral, reviving memories from her childhood she thought she buried a long time ago. What really happened back then? Is there any magic left?
DIVExamines the role of media technologies in shaping urban Africa through an ethnographic study of popular culture in northern Nigeria./div
Jack Potter puts computer cryptography to work for the highest bidder: sometimes for private corporations, sometimes for the government. Sometimes the work is legal; if not, Jack simply raises his price. But one day, Jack discovers something cloaked in the hiss of background radiation streaming past the Earth from deep space: a message from an alien civilization. One that's eager to do business with humanity -- and its representative. Before he knows it, Jack has entered into a partnership that will open a Pandora's Box of potential profit and loss. The governments, the multinationals, and mysterious players more powerful still, all want a piece of the action -- and they're willing to kill, even wage war, to get it. Now Jack is entangled shifting web of deceit and intrigue in which no one, not even his closest friends, can be trusted. For Earth's cloak-and-dagger business practices are writ large in the heavens...and hostile takeovers are just as common across light years as they are across boardroom tables.
Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal. With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals. Key features: Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains. Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver. Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences. Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise. An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.
This textbook introduces methods of geoscientific data acquisition using MATLAB in combination with inexpensive data acquisition hardware such as sensors in smartphones, sensors that come with the LEGO MINDSTORMS set, webcams with stereo microphones, and affordable spectral and thermal cameras. The text includes 35 exercises in data acquisition, such as using a smartphone to acquire stereo images of rock specimens from which to calculate point clouds, using visible and near-infrared spectral cameras to classify the minerals in rocks, using thermal cameras to differentiate between different types of surface such as between soil and vegetation, localizing a sound source using travel time differences between pairs of microphones to localize a sound source, quantifying the total harmonic distortion and signal-to-noise ratio of acoustic and elastic signals, acquiring and streaming meteorological data using application programming interfaces, wireless networks, and internet of things platforms, determining the spatial resolution of ultrasonic and optical sensors, and detecting magnetic anomalies using a smartphone magnetometer mounted on a LEGO MINDSTORMS scanner. The book’s electronic supplementary material (available online through Springer Link) contains recipes that include all the MATLAB commands featured in the book, the example data, the LEGO construction plans, photos and videos of the measurement procedures.
Signal & Noise is the epic page-turning story of the laying of the trans-Atlantic cable, and the men and women who are caught in its monumental tide. It is also a novel about the collision of worlds seen and unseen: the present and the future; the living and the dead; the real and the imagined. On a wet London morning in 1857, American engineer Chester Ludlow arrives on the muddy banks of the Isle of Dogs to witness the launch of the largest steamship ever built, the Great Eastern. Also amidst the tumultuous throng is Jack Trace, a lonely bachelor and sketch artist hoping to make his name as an illustrator and journalist in the hurly burly of Fleet Street. Other witnesses include a drunken German by the name of Marx; the child who will christen the massive vessel by the wrong name; and Isambard Kingdom Brunel, the ship's apoplectic and dwarfish architect who will soon die in ignominy. As chief engineer for the Atlantic Cable Company, the charismatic Chester enters the orbit of business and showmanship embodied by J. Beaumol Spude, the bombastic Western beef magnate who will mastermind the funding of the project; Joachim Lindt, creator of the Phantasmagorium, an animated tableaux vivant; and his beautiful wife, the musician Katerina Lindt. Drawn by the demands and adventure of creating the first transoceanic telegraph, Chester leaves behind his fragile wife, Franny, at the family estate of Willing Mind in Maine. Abandoned and still mourning the accidental death of their four-year-old daughter, Franny finds solace in the company of Chester's troubled brother, Otis, who introduces her to the mysteries of the world of spiritualism just as séancing is becoming all the rage in the jittery times leading up to the Civil War. As Chester achieves renown as the glamorous engineer of the trans-Atlantic project, Franny, desperate to contact her dead child, becomes the preeminent spirit conjuror of a war-torn America.
The Second Edition is an updated revision to the authors highly successful and widely used introduction to the principles and application of the statistical theory of signal detection. This book emphasizes those theories that have been found to be particularly useful in practice including principles applied to detection problems encountered in digital communications, radar, and sonar. Detection processing based upon the fast Fourier transform
Noise and Vibration Analysis is a complete and practical guide that combines both signal processing and modal analysis theory with their practical application in noise and vibration analysis. It provides an invaluable, integrated guide for practicing engineers as well as a suitable introduction for students new to the topic of noise and vibration. Taking a practical learning approach, Brandt includes exercises that allow the content to be developed in an academic course framework or as supplementary material for private and further study. Addresses the theory and application of signal analysis procedures as they are applied in modern instruments and software for noise and vibration analysis Features numerous line diagrams and illustrations Accompanied by a web site at www.wiley.com/go/brandt with numerous MATLAB tools and examples. Noise and Vibration Analysis provides an excellent resource for researchers and engineers from automotive, aerospace, mechanical, or electronics industries who work with experimental or analytical vibration analysis and/or acoustics. It will also appeal to graduate students enrolled in vibration analysis, experimental structural dynamics, or applied signal analysis courses.