Download Free Sectoral Impact And Propagation Of Weather Shocks Book in PDF and EPUB Free Download. You can read online Sectoral Impact And Propagation Of Weather Shocks and write the review.

Local weather shocks have been shown to affect local economic output, however, little is known about their propagation through production networks. Using a six-sector global dataset over the past fifty years, this paper examines the effect of weather fluctuations and extreme weather events on sectoral economic production and the transmission of weather shocks across sectors, countries and over time. I document that agriculture is the most harmed sector by heat shocks, droughts and cyclones. Using input-output interlinkages, I find that sectors at later stages of the supply chain suffer from substantial and persistent losses over time due to domestic and foreign heat shocks in other sectors. A counterfactual analysis of the average annual output loss accounting for heat shocks across trade partners shows a substantial underestimation of the economic cost of temperature increases since 2000.
Using a comprehensive drought measure and a panel autoregressive distributed lag model, the paper finds that worsening drought conditions can result in long-term scarring of real GDP per capita growth and affect long-term price stability in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS), more so than in other countries, leaving them further behind. Lower crop productivity and slower investment are key channels through which drought impacts economic growth in FCS. In a high emissions scenario, drought conditions will cut 0.4 percentage points of FCS’ growth of real GDP per capita every year over the next 40 years and increase average inflation by 2 percentage points. Drought will also increase hunger in FCS, from alreay high levels. The confluence of lower food production and higher prices in a high emissions scenario would push 50 million more people in FCS into hunger. The macroeconomic effects of drought in FCS countries are amplified by their low copying capacity due to high public debt, low social spending, insufficient trade openness, high water insecurity, and weak governance.
This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.
On top of a decade of exacerbated disaster loss, exceptional global heat, retreating ice and rising sea levels, humanity and our food security face a range of new and unprecedented hazards, such as megafires, extreme weather events, desert locust swarms of magnitudes previously unseen, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Agriculture underpins the livelihoods of over 2.5 billion people – most of them in low-income developing countries – and remains a key driver of development. At no other point in history has agriculture been faced with such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks, interacting in a hyperconnected world and a precipitously changing landscape. And agriculture continues to absorb a disproportionate share of the damage and loss wrought by disasters. Their growing frequency and intensity, along with the systemic nature of risk, are upending people’s lives, devastating livelihoods, and jeopardizing our entire food system. This report makes a powerful case for investing in resilience and disaster risk reduction – especially data gathering and analysis for evidence informed action – to ensure agriculture’s crucial role in achieving the future we want.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
This comprehensive Handbook examines the links between energy, the economy, and the environment. Esteemed international experts explore the ways in which energy contributes to economic growth, particularly in the context of geopolitical uncertainties.
Offering a comprehensive guide to financial shocks and crises, this book explores their increasing occurrence in current market economies, as well as their power to wrench the macroeconomy. The book discusses three critical questions: what causes financial shocks; which channels may exacerbate their impact; and what policies could help avoid them or limit their negative effect on the economy and society at large.

Turn Down the Heat

A Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Analytics.

Published: 2013-06-19

Total Pages: 253


Get eBook

This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day, 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, and coastal vulnerability. It finds many significant climate and development impacts are already being felt in some regions, and that as warming increases from present day (0.8°C) to 2°C and 4°C, multiple threats of increasing extreme heat waves, sea-level rise, more severe storms, droughts and floods are expected to have further severe negative implications for the poorest and most vulnerable. The report finds that agricultural yields will be affected across the three regions, with repercussions for food security, economic growth, and poverty reduction. In addition, urban areas have been identified as new clusters of vulnerability with urban dwellers, particularly the urban poor, facing significant vulnerability to climate change. In Sub-Saharan Africa, under 3°C global warming, savannas are projected to decrease from their current levels to approximately one-seventh of total land area and threaten pastoral livelihoods. Under 4°C warming, total hyper-arid and arid areas are projected to expand by 10 percent. In South East Asia, under 2°C warming, heat extremes that are virtually absent today would cover nearly 60-70 percent of total land area in northern-hemisphere summer, adversely impacting ecosystems. Under 4°C warming, rural populations would face mounting pressures from sea-level rise, increased tropical cyclone intensity, storm surges, saltwater intrusions, and loss of marine ecosystem services. In South Asia, the potential sudden onset of disturbances to the monsoon system and rising peak temperatures would put water and food resources at severe risk. Well before 2°C warming occurs, substantial reductions in the frequency of low snow years is projected to cause substantial reductions in dry season flow, threatening agriculture. Many of the worst climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming below 2°C, but the window for action is closing rapidly. Urgent action is also needed to build resilience to a rapidly warming world that will pose significant risks to agriculture, water resources, coastal infrastructure, and human health.
This report indicates that climate change will significantly affect the availability and trade of fish products, especially for those countries most dependent on the sector, and calls for effective adaptation and mitigation actions encompassing food production.