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This is an examination of how the political design for restoring Russia's 'greatness' has been shaped by the increase of its profile as a key energy supplier and the continuing decline of its military might.
The dissolution of the Soviet Union left Russia without efficient military power and with a tumbled-down defense industry that are critically important to support its resurfaced superpower ambitions. This obstacle could be overcome by substituting military power with the economic one through domination as the leading energy supplier. Establishment of governmental control over the energy sector became a key element of the Russian domestic policy that would convert the energy resources into the instrument of the state's power. All major energy transportation routes between Russian energy producers and European consumers are in possession of the former Soviet republics. Russia has become heavily dependent on these countries as energy transit intermediaries. To ensure consistency of the energy supply flow and to lessen Russia's reliance on the transit states, Russia is seeking ways to diversify energy transportation routes to Europe. Russia is willing to pay a significantly higher cost for a complex construction of new pipelines that bypass intermediaries. The establishment of Russian monopolistic control over energy flow to Europe might be converted into a regional political dominance. Threatening the possibility of abrupt energy disruption and price manipulation could become an efficient tool of state power to achieve Russia's political objectives.
This book examines Russia's new assertiveness and the role of energy as a key factor in shaping the country's behavior in international relations, and in building political and economic power domestically, since the 1990s. Energy transformed Russia's fortunes after its decline during the 1990s. The wealth generated from energy exports sparked economic recovery and political stabilization, and has significantly contributed to Russia's assertiveness as a great power. Energy has been a key factor in shaping Russia's foreign relations in both the Eurasian and global context. This development raises a host of questions for both Russia and the West about the stability of the Russian economy, how Russia will use the power it gains from its energy wealth, and how the West should react to Russia's new-found political weight. Given that energy is likely to remain at the top of the global political agenda for some time to come, and Russia's role as a key energy supplier to Europe is unlikely to diminish soon, this book sheds light on one of the key security concerns of the 21st century: where is Russia headed and how does energy affect the changing dynamics of Russia's relations with Europe, the US and the Asia-Pacific region. This book will be of interest to students of Russian politics, energy security, international relations and foreign policy in general. Jeronim Perovic is a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich. Robert Orttung is a visiting scholar at the Center for Security Studies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich and a senior fellow at the Jefferson Institute. Andreas Wenger is professor of international security policy and director of the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich.
This book examines the interplay between energy policy and security policy under Vladimir Putin, and his drive to re-establish Russia’s ‘greatness’. Assessing the internal contradictions of this policy, the book argues that Russia’s desire to strengthen its role of ‘energy security’ provider is undermined by its inability to secure growth in production of oil and gas. Further, the pressing demand to channel more resources into the military-industrial complex clashes with the growing need to invest in the energy complex, and the priority granted to strategic forces deprives the conventional forces of strike power and strategic mobility. In conclusion, the author anticipates how these contradictions could be resolved, and suggests three short scenarios for Russia’s continuing transition in the next decade. This book will be of interest to students of Russian politics, European politics and international security.
The challenges in Russia’s energy sector are changing. On the demand side, Europe is seeking to limit its dependence on Russian oil and gas, with the result that China and other Asian countries are likely to eventually become growing export markets for Russian energy. On the supply side, oil and gas fields in West Siberia are diminishing and in future Russia’s energy will have to come more from East Siberia and the Arctic, which will necessitate new infrastructure development and the employment of advanced technologies, which may increase Russia’s dependence on commercial partners from outside Russia. This book explores the challenges facing Russia’s energy sector and the resulting security implications. It includes a discussion of how far the Russian state is likely to continue to monopolise the energy sector, and how far competition from private and foreign companies might be allowed.
The slow re-emergence of Russia as a world power despite its weak military force is of critical significance for the strategic interests of the United States in Europe. Since the Cold War, Russia has been perceived as a broken nation that no longer represents a threat to the North Atlantic Alliance. This monograph emphasizes that Russia overcame this major vulnerability by developing the capacity to use unilateral economic sanctions in the form of gas pricing and gas disruptions against many European North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states. It agrees with many scholars and politicians alike who fear that Russia will leverage its monopoly of natural gas to gain political concessions. The author suggests it is only a matter of time until Russia will use natural gas as an instrument of coercion to disrupt NATO's decisionmaking process. A key aim of this monograph is to explain why the rapid global transition from oil to natural gas will redefine the way policymakers and strategic security scholars look at the scarcity of natural gas in Europe. What is unique about this monograph is that it analyzes the oil and gas markets separately and illustrates, with examples, why in Europe natural gas is a more potent instrument of coercion than oil. Despite these revelations, only 1 month after the German Government announced its plans to abandon nuclear power by 2022, in July 2011 German Chancellor Angela Merkel disclosed that Germany will need to import more Russian natural gas to make up for the loss of over 10 gigawatts of generation capacity. Almost simultaneously, Germany's largest energy utilities group, RWE, and the Russian state-controlled gas giv vi ant, Gazprom, have agreed to form a strategic partnership. The author argues that situations like these create a delicate state of affairs that will ultimately undermine the de facto power of NATO in the contemporary security environment, particularly vis-�vis Russia, unless the dependency on Russian natural gas is promptly addressed.
Introduction: the guns of August -- Contours of Russian foreign policy -- Bulldogs fighting under the rug: the making of Russian foreign policy -- Resetting expectations: Russia and the United States -- Europe: between integration and confrontation -- Rising China and Russia's Asian vector -- Playing with home field advantage? Russia and its post-Soviet neighbors -- Conclusion: dealing with Russia's foreign policy reawakening.
This book provides an original and thoroughly academic analysis of the link between Russian energy and foreign policies in Eurasia, as well as offering an interpretation of Russia’s coherence on the international stage, seeking to understand Russia and explain its behaviour. The authors analyse both energy and foreign policies together, in order to better grasp their correlation and gain deeper understanding of broader geopolitical issues in Eurasia at a time when things could go either way—towards producers or towards consumers. Questioning the concept of ‘energy deterrence’ which aims to fuel uncertainty in Russia’s relations with its partners, as well as projecting its overall power on the international scene, this provocative volume seeks to stimulate debate on this very important issue. Assessing the weight that energy has in Russia’s foreign policy and in its pursuit of power on the international stage, this book will be of interest to students and scholars of international relations, energy politics, geopolitics and Russian and Central Asian Studies.