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Authority, Ascendancy, and Supremacy examines the American, Chinese, and Russian (Big 3) competition for power and influence in the Post-Cold War Era. With the ascension of regional powers such as India, Iran, Brazil, and Turkey, the Big 3 dynamic is an evolving one, which cannot be ignored because of its effect to not only reshape regional security, but also control influence and power in world affairs. How does one define a "global" or "regional" power in the Post-Cold War Era? How does the relationships among the Big 3 influence regional actors? Gregory O. Hall utilizes country data from primary and secondary sources to reveal that since the early 1990s, competition for influence and power among the Big 3 has intensified and could result in armed confrontation among the major powers. He assesses the state of affairs in each country’s economic, resource, military, social/demographic, and political spheres. In addition, events data, which focuses on international interactions, facilitates identifying trends in Big 3 interactions as well as their concerns and affairs with regional players. Opinion data, drawn from policy makers, scholarly interviews, and survey research data, identifies foreign policy interests among the Big 3, as well non-Big 3 foreign policy behaviors. With its singular focus on American, Chinese, and Russian interactions, policy interests, and behaviors, Authority, Ascendancy, and Supremacy represents a significant contribution for understanding and managing Post-Cold War conflicts and promises to be an important book.
The United States is a nation in crisis. While Washington’s ability to address our most pressing challenges has been rendered nearly impotent by ongoing partisan warfare, we face an array of foreign-policy crises for which we seem increasingly unprepared. Among these, none is more formidable than the unprecedented partnership developing between Russia and China, suspicious neighbors for centuries and fellow Communist antagonists during the Cold War. The two longtime foes have drawn increasingly close together because of a confluence of geostrategic, political, and economic interests—all of which have a common theme of diminishing, subverting, or displacing American power. While America’s influence around the world recedes—in its military and diplomatic power, in its political leverage, in its economic might, and, perhaps most dangerously, in the power and appeal of its ideas—Russia and China have seen their influence increase. From their support for rogue regimes such as those in Iran, North Korea, and Syria to their military and nuclear buildups to their aggressive use of cyber warfare and intelligence theft, Moscow and Beijing are playing the game for keeps. Meanwhile America, pledged to “leading from behind,” no longer does much leading at all. In The Russia-China Axis, Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan systematically chronicle the growing threat from the Russian-Chinese Axis, and they argue that only a rebirth of American global leadership can counter the corrosive impact of this antidemocratic alliance, which may soon threaten the peace and security of the world.
From two former military officers and award-winning authors, a chillingly authentic geopolitical thriller that imagines a naval clash between the US and China in the South China Sea in 2034 - and the path from there to a nightmarish global conflagration. On March 12, 2034, US Navy Commodore Sarah Hunt is on the bridge of her flagship, the guided missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones, conducting a routine freedom of navigation patrol in the South China Sea when her ship detects an unflagged trawler in clear distress, smoke billowing from its bridge. On that same day, US Marine aviator Major Chris "Wedge" Mitchell is flying an F35E Lightning over the Strait of Hormuz, testing a new stealth technology as he flirts with Iranian airspace. By the end of that day, Wedge will be an Iranian prisoner, and Sarah Hunt's destroyer will lie at the bottom of the sea, sunk by the Chinese Navy. Iran and China have clearly coordinated their moves, which involve the use of powerful new forms of cyber weaponry that render US ships and planes defenseless. In a single day, America's faith in its military's strategic preeminence is in tatters. A new, terrifying era is at hand. So begins a disturbingly plausible work of speculative fiction, coauthored by an award-winning novelist and decorated Marine veteran and the former commander of NATO, a legendary admiral who has spent much of his career strategically outmaneuvering America's most tenacious adversaries. Written with a powerful blend of geopolitical sophitication and human empathy, 2034 takes us inside the minds of a global cast of characters - Americans, Chinese, Iranians, Russians, Indians - as a series of arrogant miscalculations on all sides leads the world into an intensifying international storm. In the end, China and the United States will have paid a staggering cost, one that forever alters the global balance of power. Everything in 2034 is an imaginative extrapolation from present-day facts on the ground combined with the authors' years of working at the highest and most classified levels of national security. Sometimes it takes a brilliant work of fiction to illuminate the most dire of warnings: 2034 is all too close at hand, and this cautionary tale presents the readers a dark yet possible future that we must do all we can to avoid. --
This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the Chinese-Russian bilateral relationship, grounded in a historical perspective, and discusses the implications of the burgeoning 'strategic partnership' between these two major powers for world order and global geopolitics. The volume compares the national worldviews, priorities, and strategic visions for the Chinese and Russian leadership, examining several aspects of the relationship in detail. The energy trade is the most important component of economic ties, although both sides desire to broaden trade and investments. In the military realm, Russia sells advanced arms to China, and the two countries engage in regular joint exercises. Diplomatically, these two Eurasian powers take similar approaches to conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, and also cooperate on non-traditional security issues including preventing coloured revolutions, cyber management, and terrorism. These issue areas illustrate four themes. Russia and China have common interests that cement their partnership, including security, protecting authoritarian institutions, and re-shaping aspects of the global order. They are key players not only influencing regional issues, but also international norms and institutions. The Sino-Russian partnership presents a potential counterbalance to the United States and democratic nations in shaping the contemporary and emerging geopolitical landscape. Nevertheless, the West is still an important partner for China and Russia. Both seek better relations with the West, but on the basis of 'mutual respect' and 'equality'. Lastly, Russia and China have frictions in their relationship, and not all of their interests overlap. The Sino-Russian relationship has gained considerable momentum, particularly since 2014 as Moscow turned to Beijing attempting to offset tensions with the West in the aftermath of Russia's annexation of Crimea and intervention in Ukraine. However, so far, China and Russia describe their relationship as a comprehensive 'strategic partnership', but they are not 'allies'.
In the brief experience the world has had during the post-9/11 era, much has been made of the need for sharing intelligence in the war on terror, and a lot of emphasis has been placed on the desirability of interfaith dialogue between Christians and Muslims. But comparatively little attention has been paid to a crucial component of intercultural cooperation on the key global security issues facing the world today: that between and among the United States, Russia, and China. This book examines key security issues of the day from the perspectives of those three powers. From an American perspective, Russia represents an erstwhile enemy of the Cold War era who has the potential to become an ally, while China is poised to become either an enemy, an ally, or an economic rival, depending on whom you listen to. From a Russian perspective, the United States is a former ally during World War II turned Cold War enemy turned lone superpower, with the potential for cooperation and conflict, while China has always embodied both ally and rival, even during the Communist era. To the Chinese, who have had rivalries and cooperative relations with both powers, the United States is currently a valued supplier of both raw materials and a vast market for Chinese goods, while Russia and the United States are rivals in the scramble for influence in the Middle East and elsewhere. With such a complicated history and with a future fraught with all sorts of possibilities, how can these three key powers cooperate in managing and responding to global security threats and terrorism? This book examines key issues of the day, including the threat posed by al Qaeda, WMD, energy security, environmental security, ethnic and religious conflicts, and a nuclear North Korea, from the perspectives of the United States, Russia, and China. Each chapter is written by scholars from at least two of the three countries. In this manner, the book embodies that which it seeks to demonstrate, becoming in itself an artifact of intercultural cooperation in the new international security environment.
For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.
*Shortlisted for the 2020 Arthur Ross Book Award* From America’s leading scholar of democracy, a personal, passionate call to action against the rising authoritarianism that challenges our world order—and the very value of liberty Larry Diamond has made it his life's work to secure democracy's future by understanding its past and by advising dissidents fighting autocracy around the world. Deeply attuned to the cycles of democratic expansion and decay that determine the fates of nations, he watched with mounting unease as illiberal rulers rose in Hungary, Poland, Turkey, the Philippines, and beyond, while China and Russia grew increasingly bold and bullying. Then, with Trump's election at home, the global retreat from freedom spread from democracy's margins to its heart. Ill Winds' core argument is stark: the defense and advancement of democratic ideals relies on U.S. global leadership. If we do not reclaim our traditional place as the keystone of democracy, today's authoritarian swell could become a tsunami, providing an opening for Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and their admirers to turn the twenty-first century into a dark time of despotism. We are at a hinge in history, between a new era of tyranny and an age of democratic renewal. Free governments can defend their values; free citizens can exercise their rights. We can make the internet safe for liberal democracy, exploit the soft, kleptocratic underbelly of dictatorships, and revive America's degraded democracy. Ill Winds offers concrete, deeply informed suggestions to fight polarization, reduce the influence of money in politics, and make every vote count. In 2020, freedom's last line of defense still remains "We the people."
How does the United States compare when objectively measured shoulder-to-shoulder against the world’s two most influential autocracies? This full-color book provides a solid foundation to enable the reader to create informed opinions about China, Russia, and the United States through comparative examination of their global status and the quality of their peoples’ lives. Data resources—created by many respected organizations including the World Bank, the United Nations, the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and Freedom House, to name a few—have been mined to provide direct comparisons between many key characteristics including health, wealth, poverty, education, employment, crime, imprisonments, freedoms, happiness, natural resources, infrastructure, debt, taxes, trade, military assets, and nuclear warheads. It is the author’s mission to present meaningful data—all with attributed sources—in an inviting, graphic format to convey much more information than would be possible in tabular form. By directly displaying data the usual biases and filters are bypassed enhancing your ability to draw your own conclusions. This visual approach very effectively reveals trends and makes differences between nations and their people self-evident. In the United States (2016): 64,100 people died of drug overdose and 2.2 million people were in prisons The top twenty percent of households received 51.5 percent of all income 1.2 trillion dollars were added to debt and 241 billion was paid in interest Foreigners held one-third of federal debt including 1.1 trillion by China In comparison with the United States Russia had: 12.5 years lower life expectancy for males born in 2016 (only 65.0 years) Double the homicide rate and 40 percent higher suicide rate 60 percent higher alcohol consumption per capita An economy one-fifth as large, measured by GDP in international dollars Equivalent number of nuclear warheads (approximately 7,000) Double the crude oil reserves and five times the natural gas reserves Repressive government—rated within the worst 10 percent by Freedom House 14 times as many residents (67,000) seeking asylum In comparison with the United States China had: An economy 15 percent larger, measured by GDP in international dollars Three times as many patent applications filed by residents One-fifth the homicide rate and one-half the poverty rate 58 percent more outbound international tourists 61 points higher scores in mathematics literacy for students aged 15 years Double the total carbon dioxide emissions Repressive government—rated within the worst 10 percent by Freedom House 44 times as many residents (212,000) seeking asylum
Perfect Imbalance seeks to answer one of the most important outstanding questions in twenty-first century politics: how close are Putin's Russia and Xi's China?Written by a scholar fluent in both Chinese and Russian, this book examines the current China-Russia partnership from several perspectives. First, what Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and their respective foreign policy establishments publicly say about the relationship between the countries. Second, how the two establishments frame their tangible cooperation on matters such as security, the Arctic, space, and international relations with other Eurasian countries. Finally, the book examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic upon Sino-Russian relations. Putin and Xi's stories, where possible, are cross-checked with what is really happening.Perfect Imbalance argues that although Russia has not pivoted towards China, and although there is no official Sino-Russian alliance is in sight, the relationship will continue to grow and expand in search for a perfect imbalance.
Are we losing a war few of us realize we’re fighting? Jim Sciutto, CNN’s Chief National Security Correspondent, reveals the invisible fronts that make up 21st century warfare, from disinformation campaigns to advanced satellite weapons. Poisoned dissidents. Election interference. Armed invasions. International treaties thrown into chaos. Secret military buildups. Hackers and viruses. Weapons deployed in space. China and Russia (and Iran and North Korea) spark news stories by carrying out bold acts of aggression and violating international laws and norms. Isn’t this just bad actors acting badly? That kind of thinking is outdated and dangerous. Emboldened by their successes, these countries are, in fact, waging a brazen, global war on the US and the West. This is a new Cold War, which will not be won by those who fail to realize they are fighting it. The enemies of the West understand that while they are unlikely to win a shooting war, they have another path to victory. And what we see as our greatest strengths—open societies, military innovation, dominance of technology on Earth and in space, longstanding leadership in global institutions—these countries are undermining or turning into weaknesses. In The Shadow War,CNN anchor and chief national security correspondent Jim Sciutto provides us with a revealing and at times disturbing guide to this new international conflict. This Shadow War is already the greatest threat to America’s national security, even though most Americans know little or nothing about it. With on-the-ground reporting from Ukraine to the South China Sea, from a sub under the Arctic to unprecedented access to America’s Space Command, Sciutto draws on his deep knowledge, high-level contacts, and personal experience as a journalist and diplomat to paint the most comprehensive and vivid picture of a nation targeted by a new and disturbing brand of warfare. Thankfully, America is adapting and fighting back. In The Shadow War, Sciutto introduces readers to the dizzying array of soldiers, sailors, submariners and their commanders, space engineers, computer scientists, civilians, and senior intelligence officials who are on the front lines of this new kind of forever war. Intensive and disturbing, this invaluable and important work opens our eyes and makes clear that the war of the future is already here.