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Romania’s external position continues to improve. Inflation peaked in December 2010, and is now likely to decline. Financial market stress has remained relatively low in recent months. The current account deficit improved from 131⁄2 percent of GDP in 2007 to about 41⁄4 percent of GDP in 2010, driven by a strong shrinking trade deficit. Significant progress has been made under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) in achieving fiscal consolidation and safeguarding the financial sector. Most performance criteria and structural benchmarks were met throughout the program.
This paper discusses Romania’s fourth review under the Stand-By Arrangement and request for modification of performance criteria. The authorities are treating the arrangement as precautionary. Additional funds under the program are provided by the European Union. The economy grew by 2.5 percent in 2011, driven by an exceptional agricultural harvest and strong industrial output growth. Domestic demand strengthened as construction and retail sales started to recover, fuelled by higher real disposable incomes.
This paper discusses Romania’s Seventh and Eighth Reviews Under the Stand-by Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria. Continued strong fiscal consolidation would enable Romania to exit the EU Excessive Deficit Procedure by mid-2013; prudent monetary policy kept core inflation low, and close supervision buttressed banking sector stability. Fiscal and international reserves buffers and a well-capitalized banking sector provide a cushion against shocks. Market sentiment toward Romania improved as political uncertainty subsided in the aftermath of the December 2012 parliamentary elections, which the ruling coalition won. Structural reforms, however, advanced slowly, and the recovery has lagged behind that in most other European emerging economies.
In order to improve the quality and efficiency of youth employment, this book examines the cases of the Romanian labour market and of youth employment performance. Recent developments in the labour market participation of young people indicate an accentuation of labour market segmentation and a decrease in job security for young people, with the risk of exclusion and marginalization, fuelled by longer transition processes towards decent employment. This transition may seem clear when one looks at two aspects: education and employment. The challenge the transition towards employment presents is faced by all, regardless of one’s level of education, as employment security is uncertain. The situation young people find themselves in when they finish school and have no job opportunities is a rather delicate one as society offers no “safety nets”. This book, as well as others in the ADAPT Labour Studies Book-Series, explains the challenges young people deal with while playing a vital role within the community they live in. As Kafka has been quoted as saying, “Youth is happy because it has the ability to see beauty. Anyone who keeps the ability to see beauty never grows old”. Therefore, young people, and those young at heart, perform an integral role in society, and they must be well integrated to enable their successful engagement within their communities.
This book makes a unique contribution in advancing understanding of the fiscal condition and growth potential of the New Member States of the European Union. It provides new data, policy evaluation, and offers national and regional perspectives. The core research questions are the effect of public investment in the context of macroeconomic disequilibrium and how it is possible to finance capital accumulation in the present and future conditions of mounting public sector debt. The contributors reveal that there is now a convincing case for public investment as an essential driver of convergence and growth in Europe. However, a new international and inter-generational fiscal pact to frame a more optimistic view of the role of government is needed. This book explores how public investment matters for growth, how fiscal conditions may support investment, and the role EU regional policy can have in terms of structural change and investment needs. Public Investment, Growth and Fiscal Constraints provides new data analyses on the EU New Member States in Central and Eastern Europe making it an essential tool for academics, students and practitioners interested in public finance and European Economics. The structural and public finance issues in these former transition economies raised in this book will also strongly appeal to policymakers, officials and consultants. The book is based on an independent research project of the University of Milan, supported by the European Investment Bank.
This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review for Pakistan and a request for the augmentation of access under the Stand-By Arrangement. Program performance has been mixed. All end-March quantitative performance criteria were met, but structural reform has been slower than programmed. The authorities indicated that the fiscal deficit ceiling may have been exceeded by 0.9 percent of GDP and, therefore, request a waiver of nonobservance for the related end-June 2009 performance criterion. The authorities also request waivers of applicability for other end-June quantitative performance criteria.
This paper discusses a request from the Sri Lankan authorities for a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The proposed SBA (of 400 percent of quota or SDR1.65 billion) would aim to smooth adjustment to the external shock that has hit the country, restore health to the country’s public finances, allow for greater exchange rate flexibility, address weaknesses in the financial system, and protect the most vulnerable from the burden of the needed adjustment. In addition, the IMF program will provide a basis for the authorities to approach donors for supporting a longer-term reconstruction program.
This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy tool for influencing activity and inflation, and there is little agreement about the appropriate role of the exchange rate.The exchange rate is a more important monetary policy tool for emerging economies that have adopted inflation targeting than it is for inflation-targeting advanced economies. Inflation-targeting emerging economies generally have less flexible exchange rate arrangements and intervene more frequently in the foreign exchange market than their advanced economy counterparts. The enhanced role of the exchange rate reflects these economies' greater vulnerability to exchange rate shocks and their less developed financial markets. However, their sharper focus on the exchange rate may cause some confusion about the commitment of their central banks to achieve the inflation target and may also complicate policy implementation. Global inflation pressures, greater exchange rate volatility, and the financial stresses from the global financial turmoil that began in mid-2007 are heightening these tensions.
The Greek economy is teetering owing to heavy public debt and loss of market access. Greece is adopting an ambitious comprehensive multiyear adjustment program to lower the fiscal deficit and the debt ratio, reduce domestic demand in line with capacity, and increase supply and competitiveness so that the economy can step onto a higher growth path led by investments and exports. Greece needs a strong and sustained adjustment program to lower the fiscal deficit substantially and create the basis for a declining debt ratio.