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This book presents recent research on robustness in econometrics. Robust data processing techniques – i.e., techniques that yield results minimally affected by outliers – and their applications to real-life economic and financial situations are the main focus of this book. The book also discusses applications of more traditional statistical techniques to econometric problems. Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. In day-by-day data, we often encounter outliers that do not reflect the long-term economic trends, e.g., unexpected and abrupt fluctuations. As such, it is important to develop robust data processing techniques that can accommodate these fluctuations.
This highly accessible book presents robustness testing as the methodology for conducting quantitative analyses in the presence of model uncertainty.
The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selectedbooks that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effortto increase global appeal and general circulation. With these newunabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives ofthese works by making them available to future generations ofstatisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "This is a nice book containing a wealth of information, much ofit due to the authors. . . . If an instructor designing such acourse wanted a textbook, this book would be the best choiceavailable. . . . There are many stimulating exercises, and the bookalso contains an excellent index and an extensive list ofreferences." —Technometrics "[This] book should be read carefully by anyone who isinterested in dealing with statistical models in a realisticfashion." —American Scientist Introducing concepts, theory, and applications, RobustStatistics is accessible to a broad audience, avoidingallusions to high-powered mathematics while emphasizing ideas,heuristics, and background. The text covers the approach based onthe influence function (the effect of an outlier on an estimater,for example) and related notions such as the breakdown point. Italso treats the change-of-variance function, fundamental conceptsand results in the framework of estimation of a single parameter,and applications to estimation of covariance matrices andregression parameters.
This book offers solutions to such topical problems as developing mathematical models and descriptions of typical distortions in applied forecasting problems; evaluating robustness for traditional forecasting procedures under distortionism and more.
WILEY-INTERSCIENCE PAPERBACK SERIES The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selectedbooks that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effortto increase global appeal and general circulation. With these newunabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives ofthese works by making them available to future generations ofstatisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "The writing style is clear and informal, and much of thediscussion is oriented to application. In short, the book is akeeper." –Mathematical Geology "I would highly recommend the addition of this book to thelibraries of both students and professionals. It is a usefultextbook for the graduate student, because it emphasizes both thephilosophy and practice of robustness in regression settings, andit provides excellent examples of precise, logical proofs oftheorems. . . .Even for those who are familiar with robustness, thebook will be a good reference because it consolidates the researchin high-breakdown affine equivariant estimators and includes anextensive bibliography in robust regression, outlier diagnostics,and related methods. The aim of this book, the authors tell us, is‘to make robust regression available for everyday statisticalpractice.’ Rousseeuw and Leroy have included all of thenecessary ingredients to make this happen." –Journal of the American Statistical Association
This Lecture Note deals with asymptotic properties, i.e. weak and strong consistency and asymptotic normality, of parameter estimators of nonlinear regression models and nonlinear structural equations under various assumptions on the distribution of the data. The estimation methods involved are nonlinear least squares estimation (NLLSE), nonlinear robust M-estimation (NLRME) and non linear weighted robust M-estimation (NLWRME) for the regression case and nonlinear two-stage least squares estimation (NL2SLSE) and a new method called minimum information estimation (MIE) for the case of structural equations. The asymptotic properties of the NLLSE and the two robust M-estimation methods are derived from further elaborations of results of Jennrich. Special attention is payed to the comparison of the asymptotic efficiency of NLLSE and NLRME. It is shown that if the tails of the error distribution are fatter than those of the normal distribution NLRME is more efficient than NLLSE. The NLWRME method is appropriate if the distributions of both the errors and the regressors have fat tails. This study also improves and extends the NL2SLSE theory of Amemiya. The method involved is a variant of the instrumental variables method, requiring at least as many instrumental variables as parameters to be estimated. The new MIE method requires less instrumental variables. Asymptotic normality can be derived by employing only one instrumental variable and consistency can even be proved with out using any instrumental variables at all.
The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Robust Bayesian analysis aims at overcoming the traditional objection to Bayesian analysis of its dependence on subjective inputs, mainly the prior and the loss. Its purpose is the determination of the impact of the inputs to a Bayesian analysis (the prior, the loss and the model) on its output when the inputs range in certain classes. If the impact is considerable, there is sensitivity and we should attempt to further refine the information the incumbent classes available, perhaps through additional constraints on and/ or obtaining additional data; if the impact is not important, robustness holds and no further analysis and refinement would be required. Robust Bayesian analysis has been widely accepted by Bayesian statisticians; for a while it was even a main research topic in the field. However, to a great extent, their impact is yet to be seen in applied settings. This volume, therefore, presents an overview of the current state of robust Bayesian methods and their applications and identifies topics of further in terest in the area. The papers in the volume are divided into nine parts covering the main aspects of the field. The first one provides an overview of Bayesian robustness at a non-technical level. The paper in Part II con cerns foundational aspects and describes decision-theoretical axiomatisa tions leading to the robust Bayesian paradigm, motivating reasons for which robust analysis is practically unavoidable within Bayesian analysis.
A new edition of this popular text on robust statistics, thoroughly updated to include new and improved methods and focus on implementation of methodology using the increasingly popular open-source software R. Classical statistics fail to cope well with outliers associated with deviations from standard distributions. Robust statistical methods take into account these deviations when estimating the parameters of parametric models, thus increasing the reliability of fitted models and associated inference. This new, second edition of Robust Statistics: Theory and Methods (with R) presents a broad coverage of the theory of robust statistics that is integrated with computing methods and applications. Updated to include important new research results of the last decade and focus on the use of the popular software package R, it features in-depth coverage of the key methodology, including regression, multivariate analysis, and time series modeling. The book is illustrated throughout by a range of examples and applications that are supported by a companion website featuring data sets and R code that allow the reader to reproduce the examples given in the book. Unlike other books on the market, Robust Statistics: Theory and Methods (with R) offers the most comprehensive, definitive, and up-to-date treatment of the subject. It features chapters on estimating location and scale; measuring robustness; linear regression with fixed and with random predictors; multivariate analysis; generalized linear models; time series; numerical algorithms; and asymptotic theory of M-estimates. Explains both the use and theoretical justification of robust methods Guides readers in selecting and using the most appropriate robust methods for their problems Features computational algorithms for the core methods Robust statistics research results of the last decade included in this 2nd edition include: fast deterministic robust regression, finite-sample robustness, robust regularized regression, robust location and scatter estimation with missing data, robust estimation with independent outliers in variables, and robust mixed linear models. Robust Statistics aims to stimulate the use of robust methods as a powerful tool to increase the reliability and accuracy of statistical modelling and data analysis. It is an ideal resource for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students in statistics, engineering, computer science, and physical and social sciences.
The second edition of a comprehensive state-of-the-art graduate level text on microeconometric methods, substantially revised and updated. The second edition of this acclaimed graduate text provides a unified treatment of two methods used in contemporary econometric research, cross section and data panel methods. By focusing on assumptions that can be given behavioral content, the book maintains an appropriate level of rigor while emphasizing intuitive thinking. The analysis covers both linear and nonlinear models, including models with dynamics and/or individual heterogeneity. In addition to general estimation frameworks (particular methods of moments and maximum likelihood), specific linear and nonlinear methods are covered in detail, including probit and logit models and their multivariate, Tobit models, models for count data, censored and missing data schemes, causal (or treatment) effects, and duration analysis. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data was the first graduate econometrics text to focus on microeconomic data structures, allowing assumptions to be separated into population and sampling assumptions. This second edition has been substantially updated and revised. Improvements include a broader class of models for missing data problems; more detailed treatment of cluster problems, an important topic for empirical researchers; expanded discussion of "generalized instrumental variables" (GIV) estimation; new coverage (based on the author's own recent research) of inverse probability weighting; a more complete framework for estimating treatment effects with panel data, and a firmly established link between econometric approaches to nonlinear panel data and the "generalized estimating equation" literature popular in statistics and other fields. New attention is given to explaining when particular econometric methods can be applied; the goal is not only to tell readers what does work, but why certain "obvious" procedures do not. The numerous included exercises, both theoretical and computer-based, allow the reader to extend methods covered in the text and discover new insights.