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Keywords: RQMM, SV, Quantile Regression, VaR, Indirect Inference.
Stochastic Volatility (SV) models play an integral role in modeling time varying volatility, with widespread application in finance. Due to the absence of a closed form likelihood function, estimation is a challenging problem. In the presence of outliers, and the high kurtosis prevalent in financial data, robust estimation techniques are desirable. Also, in the context of risk assessment when the underlying model is SV, computing the one step ahead predictive return densities for Value at Risk (VaR) calculation entails a numerically indirect procedure. The Quantile Regression (QR) estimation is an increasingly important tool for analysis, which helps in fitting parsimonious models in lieu of full conditional distributions. We propose two methods (i) Regression Quantile Method of Moments (RQMM) and (ii) Regression Quantile - Kalman Filtering method (RQ-KF) based on the QR approach that can be used to obtain robust SV model parameter estimates as well as VaR estimates. The RQMM is a simulation based indirect inference procedure where auxiliary recursive quantile models are used, with gradients of the RQ objective function providing the moment conditions. This was motivated by the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) approach used in SV model estimation and the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) method. An optimal linear quantile model based on the underlying SV assumption is derived. This is used along with other CAViaR specifications for the auxiliary models. The RQ-KF is a computationally simplified procedure combining the QML and QR methodologies. Based on a recursive model under the SV framework, quantile estimates are produced by the Kalman filtering scheme and are further refined using the RQ objective function, yielding robust estimates. For illustration purposes, comparison of the RQMM method with EMM under different data scenarios show that RQMM is stable under model misspecification, presence of outliers and heavy-tailedness. Comparison of the RQ.
A guide to the implementation and interpretation of Quantile Regression models This book explores the theory and numerous applications of quantile regression, offering empirical data analysis as well as the software tools to implement the methods. The main focus of this book is to provide the reader with a comprehensive description of the main issues concerning quantile regression; these include basic modeling, geometrical interpretation, estimation and inference for quantile regression, as well as issues on validity of the model, diagnostic tools. Each methodological aspect is explored and followed by applications using real data. Quantile Regression: Presents a complete treatment of quantile regression methods, including, estimation, inference issues and application of methods. Delivers a balance between methodolgy and application Offers an overview of the recent developments in the quantile regression framework and why to use quantile regression in a variety of areas such as economics, finance and computing. Features a supporting website (www.wiley.com/go/quantile_regression) hosting datasets along with R, Stata and SAS software code. Researchers and PhD students in the field of statistics, economics, econometrics, social and environmental science and chemistry will benefit from this book.
In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
The analysis prediction and interpolation of economic and other time series has a long history and many applications. Major new developments are taking place, driven partly by the need to analyze financial data. The five papers in this book describe those new developments from various viewpoints and are intended to be an introduction accessible to readers from a range of backgrounds. The book arises out of the second Seminaire European de Statistique (SEMSTAT) held in Oxford in December 1994. This brought together young statisticians from across Europe, and a series of introductory lectures were given on topics at the forefront of current research activity. The lectures form the basis for the five papers contained in the book. The papers by Shephard and Johansen deal respectively with time series models for volatility, i.e. variance heterogeneity, and with cointegration. Clements and Hendry analyze the nature of prediction errors. A complementary review paper by Laird gives a biometrical view of the analysis of short time series. Finally Astrup and Nielsen give a mathematical introduction to the study of option pricing. Whilst the book draws its primary motivation from financial series and from multivariate econometric modelling, the applications are potentially much broader.
This book presents in detail methodologies for the Bayesian estimation of sing- regime and regime-switching GARCH models. These models are widespread and essential tools in n ancial econometrics and have, until recently, mainly been estimated using the classical Maximum Likelihood technique. As this study aims to demonstrate, the Bayesian approach o ers an attractive alternative which enables small sample results, robust estimation, model discrimination and probabilistic statements on nonlinear functions of the model parameters. The author is indebted to numerous individuals for help in the preparation of this study. Primarily, I owe a great debt to Prof. Dr. Philippe J. Deschamps who inspired me to study Bayesian econometrics, suggested the subject, guided me under his supervision and encouraged my research. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier and my colleagues of the Department of Quantitative Economics, in particular Michael Beer, Roberto Cerratti and Gilles Kaltenrieder, for their useful comments and discussions. I am very indebted to my friends Carlos Ord as Criado, Julien A. Straubhaar, J er ^ ome Ph. A. Taillard and Mathieu Vuilleumier, for their support in the elds of economics, mathematics and statistics. Thanks also to my friend Kevin Barnes who helped with my English in this work. Finally, I am greatly indebted to my parents and grandparents for their support and encouragement while I was struggling with the writing of this thesis.
The new edition of this influential textbook, geared towards graduate or advanced undergraduate students, teaches the statistics necessary for financial engineering. In doing so, it illustrates concepts using financial markets and economic data, R Labs with real-data exercises, and graphical and analytic methods for modeling and diagnosing modeling errors. These methods are critical because financial engineers now have access to enormous quantities of data. To make use of this data, the powerful methods in this book for working with quantitative information, particularly about volatility and risks, are essential. Strengths of this fully-revised edition include major additions to the R code and the advanced topics covered. Individual chapters cover, among other topics, multivariate distributions, copulas, Bayesian computations, risk management, and cointegration. Suggested prerequisites are basic knowledge of statistics and probability, matrices and linear algebra, and calculus. There is an appendix on probability, statistics and linear algebra. Practicing financial engineers will also find this book of interest.
A comprehensive reference work for teaching at graduate level and research in empirical finance. The chapters cover a wide range of statistical and probabilistic methods applied to a variety of financial methods and are written by internationally renowned experts.
The latest tools and techniques for pricing and risk management This book introduces readers to the use of copula functions to represent the dynamics of financial assets and risk factors, integrated temporal and cross-section applications. The first part of the book will briefly introduce the standard the theory of copula functions, before examining the link between copulas and Markov processes. It will then introduce new techniques to design Markov processes that are suited to represent the dynamics of market risk factors and their co-movement, providing techniques to both estimate and simulate such dynamics. The second part of the book will show readers how to apply these methods to the evaluation of pricing of multivariate derivative contracts in the equity and credit markets. It will then move on to explore the applications of joint temporal and cross-section aggregation to the problem of risk integration.