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Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters covers all major aspects of catastrophe risk modeling, from hazards through to financial analysis. It explores relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies. It also provides further insight into the shortcomings of current models and examines model risk and ideas to diversify risk assessment. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters instructs readers on how to assess, price and then hedge the losses from natural and manmade catastrophes. This book reviews current model development and science and explains recent changes in the catastrophe modeling space, including new initiatives covering uncertainty and big data in the assessment of risk for insurance pricing and portfolio management. Edited by a leading expert in both hazards and risk, this book is authored by a global panel including major modeling vendors, modeling consulting firms, and well-known catastrophe modeling scientists. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters provides important insight into how models are used to price and manage risk. - Includes high profile case studies such as the Newcastle earthquake, Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Katrina - Provides crucial information on new ideas and platforms that will help address the new demands for risk management and catastrophe risk reporting - Presents the theory and practice needed to know how models are created and what is and what is not important in the modeling process - Covers relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies
Based on the research that has been conducted at Wharton Risk Management Center over the past five years on catastrophic risk. Covers a hot topic in the light of recent terroristic activities and nature catastrophes. Develops risk management strategies for reducing and spreading the losses from future disasters. Provides glossary of definitions and terms used throughout the book.
The term 'natural disaster' is often used to refer to natural events such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. However, the phrase 'natural disaster' suggests an uncritical acceptance of a deeply engrained ideological and cultural myth. At Risk questions this myth and argues that extreme natural events are not disasters until a vulnerable group of people is exposed. The updated new edition confronts a further ten years of ever more expensive and deadly disasters and discusses disaster not as an aberration, but as a signal failure of mainstream 'development'. Two analytical models are provided as tools for understanding vulnerability. One links remote and distant 'root causes' to 'unsafe conditions' in a 'progression of vulnerability'. The other uses the concepts of 'access' and 'livelihood' to understand why some households are more vulnerable than others. Examining key natural events and incorporating strategies to create a safer world, this revised edition is an important resource for those involved in the fields of environment and development studies.
Climate change, combined with the rapid and often unplanned urbanisation trends, is associated with a rising trend in the frequency and severity of disasters triggered by natural hazards. In order to face the impacts of such threats, it is necessary to have an appropriate Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA). Traditional DRA approaches for disaster risk reduction (DRR) have focused mainly on the hazard component of risk, with little attention to the vulnerability and the exposure components. To address this issue, this dissertation’s main objective is to develop and test a disaster risk modelling framework that incorporates socioeconomic vulnerability and the adaptive nature of exposure associated with human behaviour in extreme hydro-meteorological events in the context of SIDS. To achieve the objective, an Adaptive Disaster Risk Assessment (ADRA) framework is proposed. ADRA uses an index-based approach (PeVI) to assess the socioeconomic vulnerability using three components: susceptibility, lack of coping capacities, and lack of adaptation. Furthermore, ADRA explicitly incorporates the exposure component using two approaches; first, a logistic regression model was built using the actual evacuation rates observed during Hurricane Irma, and second, an Agent-based model is used to simulate how households change their exposure levels in relation to different sources of information
This book is the second in a series that examines how geographic information te- nologies (GIT) are being implemented to improve our understanding of a variety of hazard and disaster situations. The main types of technologies covered under the umbrella of GIT, as used in this volume, are geographic information systems, remote sensing (not including ground-penetrating or underwater systems), and global po- tioning systems. Our focus is on urban areas, broadly de ned in order to encompass rapidly growing and densely populated areas that may not be considered “urban” in the conventional sense. The material presented here is also unabashedly applied – our goal is to provide GIT tools to those seeking more ef cient ways to respond to, recover from, mitigate, prevent, and/or model hazard and disaster events in urban settings. Therefore, this book was created not only with our colleagues in the academic world in mind, but also for hazards professionals and practitioners. We also believe graduate students will nd the material presented here of interest, as may upper division undergraduate students.
The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.
Climate change is increasingly of great concern to the world community. The earth has witnessed the buildup of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, changes in biodiversity, and more occurrences of natural disasters. Recently, scientists have begun to shift their emphasis away from curbing carbon dioxide emission to adapting to carbon dioxide emission. The increase in natural disasters around the world is unprecedented in earth's history and these disasters are often associated to climate changes. Many nations along the coastal lines are threatened by massive floods and tsunamis. Earthquakes are increasing in intensity and erosion and droughts are problems in many parts of the developing countries. This book is therefore to investigate ways to prepare and effectively manage these disasters and possibly reduce their impacts. The focus is on mitigation strategies and policies that will help to reduce the impacts of natural disasters. The book takes an in-depth look at climate change and its association to socio-economic development and cultures especially in vulnerable communities; and investigates how communities can develop resilience to disasters. A balanced and a multiple perspective approach to manage the risks associated with natural disasters is offered by engaging authors from the entire globe to proffer solutions.
Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance to Manage Disaster Risk presents the second principle from the UNISDR Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015-2030. The framework includes discussion of risk and resilience from both a theoretical and governance perspective in light of the ideas that are shaping our common future and presents innovative tools and best practices in reducing risk and building resilience. Combining the applications of social, financial, technological, design, engineering and nature-based approaches, the volume addresses rising global priorities and focuses on strengthening the global understanding of risk governance practices, initiatives and trends. Focusing on disaster risk governance at the national, regional, and global levels, it presents both historic and contemporary issues, asking researchers and governments how they can use technological advances, risk and resilience metrics and modeling, business continuity practices, and past experiences to understand the disaster recovery process and manage risk. - Follows the global frameworks for disaster risk reduction and sustainability, specifically the UNISDR Sendai Framework for DRR, 2015-2030 - Addresses lessons learned and future paths in disaster risk governance models - Integrates public and private interests in risk governance - Presents methodologies dealing with risk uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity
Emphasizes Resilient Policies, Rather Than Rigid PhilosophyEconomic and environmental consequences of natural and man-made disasters have grown exponentially during the past few decades. Whether from hurricanes, chemical spills, terrorist incidents, or other catastrophes, the negative impacts can often be felt on a global scale. Natural Hazards Ana
A unique interdisciplinary approach to disaster risk research, including global hazards and case-studies, for researchers, graduate students and professionals.