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The presumed link between mental disorder and violence has been the driving force behind mental health law and policy for centuries. Legislatures, courts, and the public have come to expect that mental health professionals will protect them from violent acts by persons with mental disorders. Yet for three decades research has shown that clinicians' unaided assessments of "dangerousness" are barely better than chance. Rethinking Risk Assessment: The MacArthur Study of Mental Disorder and Violence tells the story of a pioneering investigation that challenges preconceptions about the frequency and nature of violence among persons with mental disorders, and suggests an innovative approach to predicting its occurrence. The authors of this massive project -- the largest ever undertaken on the topic -- demonstrate how clinicians can use a "decision tree" to identify groups of patients at very low and very high risk for violence. This dramatic new finding, and its implications for the every day clinical practice of risk assessment and risk management, is thoroughly described in this remarkable and long-anticipated volume. Taken to heart, its message will change the way clinicians, judges, and others who must deal with persons who are mentally ill and may be violent will do their work.
Rethinking Risk Assessment' tells the story of a pioneering investigation that challenges preconceptions about the frequency and nature of violence among persons with mental disorders, and suggests an innovative approach to predicting its occurrence.
Risk. It’s a given factor in the operation of any organization. From corporate fraud and security issues to technological and other man-made disasters, bad things do happen. And while many businesses build elaborate defenses against these unexpected occurrences, often employing powerful technology to help detect and prevent them, most risk-assessment strategies fail to connect the dots before it’s too late. This book, based on the author’s extensive experience analyzing the sources of corporate and organizational failure, reveals how a company can mitigate risk using available resources, including what may be the most important asset: its people. Readers will discover valuable strategies, enabling them to: Draw “actionable intelligence” from enormous amounts of data • Quickly make better-informed assessments and decisions • Tap into the rich human sources of information that can directly alert them to signs of risk • Do a better job of anticipat ing and avoiding problems Filled with practical, real-world insight and featuring interviews with experienced risk practitioners, this book will help any business recognize the first signs of trouble.
Risk management has become a key factor of successful organizations. Despite risk management's importance, outdated and inappropriate ideas about how to manage risk dominate. This book challenges existing paradigms of risk management and provides readers with new concepts and tools for the current dynamic risk management environment. The framework for the book is a series of questions that allows for an interesting and thought-provoking look at current ideas and forward-looking concepts. This book, intended for senior managers, directors, risk managers, students of risk management, and all others who need to be concerned about risk management and strategy, provides a solid base for not only understanding current best practice in risk management, but also the conceptual tools for exploiting emerging risk management technologies, metrics, regulations, and ideas. The central thesis is that risk management is a value-adding activity that all types of organizations, public, private as well as not-for-profit, can use for competitive advantage and maximum effectiveness.
This book examines the role of risk management in the recent financial crisis and applies lessons from there to the national security realm. It rethinks the way risk contributes to strategy, with insights relevant to practitioners and scholars in national security as well as business. Over the past few years, the concept of risk has become one of the most commonly discussed issues in national security planning. And yet the experiences of the 2007-2008 financial crisis demonstrated critical limitations in institutional efforts to control risk. The most elaborate and complex risk procedures could not cure skewed incentives, cognitive biases, groupthink, and a dozen other human factors that led companies to take excessive risk. By embracing risk management, the national security enterprise may be turning to a discipline just as it has been discredited.
Rethinking Risk and the Precautionary Principle challenges the claim that the precautionary principle is an appropriate guide to public policy decision-making in the face of uncertainty. The precautionary principle is frequently invoked as a justification for regulating human activities. From bans on the use of growth hormones in cattle to restrictions on children's playground activities, precautionary thinking seems to be taking over our lives. As the contributors to this book show, such an approach is of dubious utility and may even be counterproductive. This is a timely and important contribution to the debate on how to manage risk in the modern world. The editor, Julian Morris, is Director of the Environment and Technology Programme at the Institute of Economic Affairs in London. He has written widely on issues relating to environmental protection and technological development. Up to date discussion of current issues and scientific controversies Challenges the claim that the 'precautionary principle' is an appropriate guide to public policy decisions
A Bayesian approach to risk assessment can mitigate the weaknesses in current DOD risk assessment methodology through the integration of three mutually supporting concepts. Bayesian risk assessment begins with a probabilistic approach and is supported by analysis of known data, extrapolation to reasonably known circumstances, and holistic expert perspectives to address uncertainty. The DOD should adopt a suite of capabilities and processes to implement this Bayesian approach. Finally, risk assessments should communicate both the inherent strengths and weaknesses of the data and models upon which they are based. As the data and models improve, risk assessments and assessment methodologies should be updated in near real time. Incorporating this suite of capabilities, structures, and processes will enable a more accurate risk assessment methodology within the DOD. This Bayesian process is necessary to provide accurate and relevant risk assessments in support of globally integrated campaigning and to support informed risk decisions.