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Global value chains (GVCs) have driven dramatic expansions in trade, productivity, and economic growth in developing countries. This book examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GVCs and explores whether they can continue to be a driver of trade and development. The report reviews previous crises and what these tell us about the resilience of GVC firms to shocks. It examines the observed impact of COVID-19 on trade during the sharp global recession of 2020. It summarizes discussions with GVC firms on the impacts of, and their responses to, the COVID shock. GVCs showed surprising resilience, but the rapid recovery raised new issues with supply chains. The book then explores simulations from a global economic model of the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on developing countries and other key factors shaping the global economy, including the evolving role of China, increasing trade restrictions and policy responses to global warming. The analysis shows that while there are risks associated with GVCs, especially those concentrated around key nodes and where opportunities to find alternative suppliers or buyers are limited, there are mechanisms by which GVCs maintain trade relationships during a crisis, paving the way for a strong trade-led recovery. Measures are identified that can enhance the resilience of GVCs in low-income countries. This report finds that policies that maintain and enhance trade can contribute toward crisis management and recovery. Attempts to reshore production would make all countries worse off, including those that implement them, and could drive 52 million people, mainly in Africa, into extreme poverty. Measures to meet climate change commitments will have more profound impacts, leading to a shift away from carbon-intensive GVCs, while new opportunities for trade will arise in GVCs that are less carbon intensive.
The book looks to address the following questions in a post-crisis world: How have lead firms responded to the crisis? Have they changed their traditional supply chain strategy and relocated and/or outsourced part of their production? How will those changes affect developing countries? What should be the policy responses to these changes?
A radical shift is underway in global value chains as they increasingly move beyond traditional manufacturing processes to services and other intangible assets. Digitization is a leading factor in this transformation, which is being accelerated by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The Global Value Chain Development Report, the third of a biennial series, explores this shift beyond production. The report shows how the rise of services value chains offers a new path to development and how protectionism and geopolitical tensions, environmental risks, and pandemics are undermining the stability of global value chains and forcing their reorganization geographically. It is co-published by the WTO, the Asian Development Bank, the Research Institute for Global Value Chains at the University of International Business and Economics, the Institute of Developing Economies, and the China Development Research Foundation.
An accessible overview of political, economic, and strategic dimensions of global supply chains in a changing global political economy.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
"Digital technology will bring globalisation and robotics (globotics) to previously shielded professional and service sectors. Jobs will be displaced at the eruptive pace of digital technology while they will be replaced at a normal historical pace. The mismatch will produce a backlash - the globotics upheaval"--
Much has been written about Covid-19 victims, how scientists raced to understand and treat the disease, and how governments did (or did not) protect their citizens. Less has been written about the pandemic’s impact on the global economy and how companies coped as the competitive environment was upended. In his new book, "The New (Ab)Normal", MIT Professor Yossi Sheffi maps how the Covid-19 pandemic impacted business, supply chains, and society. He exposes the critical role supply chains play in helping people, governments, and companies to manage the crisis. The book draws on executive interviews, pandemic media coverage, and historical analyses. Sheffi also builds on themes from his books "The Resilient Enterprise" (2005) and "The Power of Resilience" (2015) to enrich the narrative. The author paints a compelling picture of how the Covid-19 virus is changing many facets of human life and what our post-pandemic world might look like. This must-read book helps companies to redefine their business models and adjust to a fast-evolving economic landscape. The stage is set In Part 1 of the book, “What Happened,” the author looks at how companies fought to mend the global economic fabric even as the virus ripped more holes in it. Part 2, “Living with Uncertainty,” views the crisis through a supply chain risk management lens derived from Yossi Sheffi’s previous books. This perspective shows how companies create corporate immune systems to quickly recognize and manage large-scale disruptions. The ongoing pandemic is creating a new normal in life, work, and education—covered in Part 3, “Adjustment Required.” Consumer fears about the contagion as well as government mandates require businesses in industries such as retail, hospitality, entertainment, sports, and education to create “safe zones” for workers and customers. Many elements of the book – especially in Part 4, “Supply Chains for the Future” – show how the virus accelerated preexisting trends in technology adoption. China was the epicenter of the pandemic; it also was the first nation to be disrupted and recover. Part 5 of the book, “Of Politics and Pandemics,” explains why reports that companies are abandoning China in favor of other offshore manufacturing centers do not reflect reality. Fundamentally, The New (Ab)Normal is about businesses trying to create a better future in a time of extreme uncertainty – a point emphasized in Part 6, “The Next Opportunities.” The outlook is not necessarily gloomy. The advance of technology is accelerating, a trend that can level the playing field between small and large companies. Nimble small businesses are using a growing array of off-the-shelf cloud computing and mobile apps to deploy sophisticated technologies in their supply chains and customer interfaces. The New (Ab)Normal Another new normal is working from home. Remote working enables individuals to live anywhere and companies to recruit talent from anywhere. Education, especially higher education, faces a major disruption (and major opportunity) that is likely to shake the high-cost model of in-person education in favor of online or hybrid education. Regrettably, the book recognizes one trend accentuated by Covid-19--the growing inequality, and anticipates that the new normal will be more stratified.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
In this book, the authors set forth a new model of globalization that lays claims to supersede existing models, and then use this model to assess the way the processes of globalization have operated in different historic periods in respect to political organization, military globalization, trade, finance, corporate productivity, migration, culture, and the environment. Each of these topics is covered in a chapter which contrasts the contemporary nature of globalization with that of earlier epochs. In mapping the shape and political consequences of globalization, the authors concentrate on six states in advanced capitalist societies (SIACS): the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Germany, and Japan. For comparative purposes, other states—particularly those with developing economics—are referred to and discussed where relevant. The book concludes by systematically describing and assessing contemporary globalization, and appraising the implications of globalization for the sovereignty and autonomy of SIACS. It also confronts directly the political fatalism that surrounds much discussion of globalization with a normative agenda that elaborates the possibilities for democratizing and civilizing the unfolding global transformation.
International Business in Times of Crisis classifies studies of crises relevant to international business research following a global pandemic which exposed systems failures and fragilities closely across global economic, financial, political, and social systems.