International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Published: 2024-01-26
Total Pages: 133
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Recent Developments, Outlook and Risks. Staff project GDP growth of 2.3 percent in 2023, lower than at the time of PLL arrangement approval, driven by lower external demand and a slowdown in investment. Staff expect an investment recovery to be a key driver of the recovery in 2024, with projected GDP growth of 3.0 percent. Inflation is coming down, driven by monetary tightening and lower global commodity prices, and is projected to be at 4.5 percent average in 2024. The current account is benefitting from lower international energy prices, and international reserves are at an adequate level and projected to remain so. Risks are mainly related to geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and unfunded promises ahead of the elections planned for the spring.