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With a demonstrated resilience to the crisis and the recovery gaining strength, macroeconomic policies should aim at preserving stability and complementing structural reforms that address long-standing challenges. A medium-term plan to rebuild buffers, support potential growth, and target pockets of vulnerability would help address pre-existing disparities and poverty. Sustained productivity growth, supported by the implementation of politically difficult but needed structural reforms, is the only way to support high wage growth and convergence with Western Europe. Failure to do so could jeopardize Lithuania’s hard-earned competitiveness gains.
This volume addresses and seeks to answer a number of questions on the current issues facing small states/powers in Europe. How can small European states survive and prosper within a multipolar world of great powers? What part should small states take in European integration? Are EU fiscal and monetary policies allowing for Keynesian economic stimulus when needed and are euro area convergence criteria viable as the world recovers from the COVID-19 crisis? Are small state alliances within the EU useful to counterbalance the influence of the larger EU member states? How far should EU and NATO expansion go? Should it include countries such as Ukraine? Can the EU rely on US leadership of NATO for its security? How should small states relate to great powers seeking to influence Europe, most notably the US, the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation? Do smaller states need to choose a single ally among the major powers? Using an interdisciplinary approach, the author discusses issues of economic policy, international relations and politics, economic and political integration, as well as the effects of global and regional institutions, and priorities in bilateral development cooperation, demonstrating how policies are shaped by the interaction between small states (small powers) and large states (great powers).
This paper discusses key issues pertaining to the economy of Lithuania. Good policies and favorable business conditions have helped put Lithuania back on the convergence path with western European living standards. Last year, growth took a temporary hit from difficult external environment. External factors caused the price level to fall in 2015, but deflation is unlikely to take root. The external current account moved into moderate deficit in 2015 due to weak export markets and strong domestic demand. Lithuania needs to focus on raising productivity growth through structural reforms, securing continued competitiveness as labor market tightens, and reducing income inequality through fiscal measures while maintaining a prudent policy stance.
The strong post-pandemic recovery led to demand driven inflationary pressures. Supply side bottlenecks and large increases in commodity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine compounded these pressures and resulted in high and persistent inflation. The negative impact on disposable income, higher interest rates and weaker external demand have led to a deterioration of economic activity. If high inflation becomes entrenched, it will erode competitiveness and slow the successful convergence process. The financial system has ample liquidity and capital buffers to address the weakening economic cycle. Higher interest rates have boosted banks’ profitability, but they also bring significant risks.
After over two decades of unprecedented economic expansion, Panama’s economy contracted sharply in 2020 amidst challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic. As conditions rapidly deteriorated, Panama requested financial support under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) for 100 percent of quota equivalent to US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.4 billion) to address immediate balance of payments needs, which the IMF Executive Board approved on April 15, 2020. Subsequently, uncertainties magnified, and Panama requested a two-year arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) for 500 percent of quota, equivalent to US$2.7 billion (SDR 1.9 billion), as insurance against extreme external shocks, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on January 19, 2021.
With strong policy support, Finland suffered a relatively mild economic contraction in 2020 followed by a swift recovery in 2021. Medium-term growth prospects are less strong, due to adverse demographics and low productivity growth—trends that precede the pandemic. Public debt has increased due to pandemic-related support and will remain on a rising trajectory in the medium term, largely reflecting permanent spending increases.
This report analyses planned infrastructure projects, decision-making frameworks related to infrastructure development and strategic planning documents in the six countries of the EU Eastern Partnership: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.
Estonia’s economy is vulnerable to the fallout from the war in Ukraine given its geographical proximity to Russia, the geopolitical context, and high passthrough from global energy prices to domestic inflation. Although direct exposures to Russia and Ukraine through trade, services, and financial channels appear to be contained, the war is already significantly affecting economic confidence. Nevertheless, economic activity has progressively adapted to the pandemic, rebounding strongly in 2021, and as of mid-2022, remaining resilient to the headwinds from the war. Inflation has surged into double digits and is increasingly broad-based.
Russia’s war on Ukraine triggered supply side disruptions, shifting up price and cost levels compared to the euro area average and hurting competitiveness. These developments added to longer-standing problems. Estonia’s export market share has stalled since soon after the GFC as productivity growth fell and the country’s previous competitive edge slowly eroded.
Context. The global financial crisis and international efforts to address preferential tax regimes exposed the vulnerabilities of San Marino’s oversized financial sector servicing nonresidents. While the banking system entered a deep crisis in 2008 and continues to struggle, the nonfinancial sector has experienced a recovery underpinned by cost-competitiveness and strong corporate balance sheets. More recently, prudent fiscal policies, access to international capital markets and favorable external conditions improved the public finances and boosted confidence. As a result, the economy has been remarkably resilient throughout the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite volatile financial conditions, the government was able to rollover the Eurobond maturing next year. However, San Marino is a microstate subject to very high volatility and financial sector vulnerabilities remain, suggesting that larger-than-usual fiscal buffers are needed.