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As other emerging economies reliant on tourism (about 25 percent total contribution of tourism-related industries in GDP and employment), Croatia has been hit hard by the pandemic and two devastating earthquakes, leading the economy to contract by 8.0 percent in 2020. Vaccinations have been rolled out to about 38 percent of the population (end-June 2021). Staff projects growth to bounce back to 5.4 percent in 2021, driven by a rebound in the services sector and investment, aided by fiscal and monetary policies, and bolstered by large EU grants over the medium-term.
On January 1, 2023, Croatia became the 20th member of the eurozone. The country posted another strong growth year in 2022, among the highest in the eurozone. But the momentum started to slow in H2, while inflation rose to a multi-decade high, reflecting indirect impacts from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Staff expects growth to moderate to 2.4 percent in 2023 and recover to its potential over the medium term. Inflation is projected to average 71⁄2 percent in 2023 and gradually fall towards the 2 percent target. The outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty. Risks to growth are broadly balanced and risks to inflation are tilted to the upside.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic expansion continues, driven primarily by private consumption and exports of goods and services. Discussions primarily focused on increasing the economy’s flexibility and resilience. Fiscal performance has been strong, however, the materialization of contingent liabilities from government guarantees is likely to reduce the overall surplus. Low public and private investment, and continued emigration appear to weigh on medium-term growth prospects. Downside risks in the near-term stem could be due to possible changes in regional or global economic and financial conditions, and the further realization of contingent liabilities. The IMF staff advocated for a moderately faster fiscal adjustment. The report recommends accelerating the pace of debt reduction that would build fiscal space and help reduce downside risks. The Central Bank may need to address potentially tighter external conditions while continuing with strong bank supervision and macroprudential policies. Additional measures to prevent excessive household borrowing could be considered if needed.
San Marino entered the pandemic with substantial vulnerabilities and still struggling from the consequences of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). However, the economy has shown significant resilience supported by a timely and targeted policy response. Fiscal support was substantially scaled up after external borrowing was secured, including through a debut Eurobond. The banking system was rationalized, partly capitalized, its liquidity substantially improved, and a strategy is being adopted to address exceptionally high nonperforming loans (NPLs). Some of these measures, while effective, have increased official public debt substantially.
A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.
After being hit very hard by the pandemic in 2020, both in terms of health and economic outcomes, Peru experienced an equally strong economic rebound in 2021. A new administration was inaugurated in July 2021 with a program focused on reducing inequality and improving social conditions, but limited support from Congress and lack of cohesion heightened political uncertainty. While real GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic level by 2021, labor force participation and total employment have not fully recovered yet. Poverty increased significantly in 2020 and, despite some improvement in 2021, remains higher than in 2019. On May 27, 2021, the IMF Executive Board completed the mid-term review of Peru’s continued qualification under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement.
Recent economic developments. Supported by a large policy package, Serbia’s economy rebounded quickly from the initial COVID-19 shock, recording a 1 percent contraction of real GDP in 2020. Job losses have mostly been contained to the informal sector, thanks to policy measures aimed at preserving formal employment. A supplementary budget for 2021 was adopted in April boosting capital expenditure and extending policy support to households and corporates, against the background of third and fourth waves of infections and related containment measures, as well as a weaker-than-expected economic recovery in key trading partners. Inflation remains low. After rising again in late February, infections tapered, helped by new containment measures and the rapid vaccine rollout.
Malaysia’s economy is showing signs of a gradual yet steady recovery thanks to the authorities’ impressive vaccine rollout, swift and coordinated implementation of multi-pronged support measures. The recovery nevertheless remains uneven and the output gap sizeable, with significant downside risks. Going forward, the authorities should calibrate macroeconomic policies to the pace of the recovery, while preserving policy space given pandemic-related uncertainties, and simultaneously accelerate structural reforms.

Israel

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Published: 2023-06-15

Total Pages: 90


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Following a remarkable recovery from the pandemic anchored in strong fundamentals, the outlook is for growth to slow broadly in line with potential, as inflation falls within the targeted range by end-2024. However, the risk balance is tilted to the downside, reflecting, among other things, external risks and the continued uncertainty around the proposed judicial reform.

Colombia

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Published: 2021-03-23

Total Pages: 73


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COVID-19 has taken a severe social and economic toll, including almost 60,000 deaths. With over 5 million jobs temporarily affected, Colombia recorded its largest recession on record. Since 2020H2, an uneven recovery with intermittent growth has been underway, led by private domestic demand. Staff expects only a gradual recovery in 2021 with economic activity not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until the second half of 2022. Vaccinations began in February with plans to effectively cover the adult population. However, both external and domestic risks remain skewed to the downside.