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From Nobel Prize–winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller, a groundbreaking account of how stories help drive economic events—and why financial panics can spread like epidemic viruses Stories people tell—about financial confidence or panic, housing booms, or Bitcoin—can go viral and powerfully affect economies, but such narratives have traditionally been ignored in economics and finance because they seem anecdotal and unscientific. In this groundbreaking book, Robert Shiller explains why we ignore these stories at our peril—and how we can begin to take them seriously. Using a rich array of examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that influence individual and collective economic behavior—what he calls "narrative economics"—may vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises and other major economic events. The result is nothing less than a new way to think about the economy, economic change, and economics. In a new preface, Shiller reflects on some of the challenges facing narrative economics, discusses the connection between disease epidemics and economic epidemics, and suggests why epidemiology may hold lessons for fighting economic contagions.
Macroeconomics tries to describe and explain the economywide movement of prices, output, and unemployment. The field has been sharply divided among various schools, including Keynesian, monetarist, new classical, and others. It has also been split between theorists and empiricists. Ray Fair is a resolute empiricist, developing and refining methods for testing theories and models. The field cannot advance without the discipline of testing how well the models approximate the data. Using a multicountry econometric model, he examines several important questions, including what causes inflation, how monetary authorities behave and what are their stabilization limits, how large is the wealth effect on aggregate consumption, whether European monetary policy has been too restrictive, and how large are the stabilization costs to Europe of adopting the euro. He finds, among other things, little evidence for the rational expectations hypothesis and for the so-called non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) hypothesis. He also shows that the U.S. economy in the last half of the 1990s was not a new age economy.
Milton Friedman is regarded as one of the most influential economists of the twentieth century. This volume assesses the importance of the full range of Friedman's ideas, from his work on methodology in economics, and his consumption theory, his research on monetary economics, to his views on contentious social and political issues such as education, conscription, and drugs. It also presents personal recollections of Friedman by some of those who knew him, both asstudents and colleagues, and offers new evidence on Friedman's interactions with other noted economists. The volume provides readers with an up to date account of Friedman's continuing influence andwill help to stimulate further research across a variety of areas, including macroeconomics, the history of economic thought, and public policy. With contributions from a stellar cast, this book will be invaluable to academics and students alike.
This book is intended to provide a somewhat more comprehensive and unified treatment of large sample theory than has been available previously and to relate the fundamental tools of asymptotic theory directly to many of the estimators of interest to econometricians. In addition, because economic data are generated in a variety of different contexts (time series, cross sections, time series--cross sections), we pay particular attention to the similarities and differences in the techniques appropriate to each of these contexts.
Written from the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission econometric perspective, this book provides an account of the advances in the field of econometrics since the 1970s.
This book illustrates how economists first learnt to harness statistical methods to measure and test the 'laws' of economics.