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This report examines agricultural policies in Switzerland and makes a series of recommendations concerning regulation, reducing trade barriers, reducing direct payments to farmers, implementing regional policies and addressing sustainability.
Countries emerging from civil war attract both aid and policy advice. This paper provides the first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post-conflict growth process. It is based on a comprehensive data set of large civil wars and covers 27 countries that were in their first decade of post-conflict economic recovery during the 1990s. The authors first investigate whether the absorptive capacity for aid is systematically different in post-conflict countries. They find that during the first three post-conflict years, absorptive capacity is no greater than normal, but that in the rest of the first decade it is approximately double its normal level. So ideally, aid should phase in during the decade. Historically, aid has not, on average, been higher in post-conflict societies, and it has tended to taper out over the course of the decade. The authors then investigate whether the contribution of policy to growth is systematically different in post-conflict countries, and in particular, whether particular components of policy are differentially important. For this they use the World Bank policy rating database. The authors find that growth is more sensitive to policy in post-conflict societies. Comparing the efficacy of different policies, they find that social policies are differentially important relative to macroeconomic policies. However, historically, this does not appear to have been how policy reform has been prioritized in post-conflict societies.
Moving Beyond Modern Portfolio Theory: Investing That Matters tells the story of how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) revolutionized the investing world and the real economy, but is now showing its age. MPT has no mechanism to understand its impacts on the environmental, social and financial systems, nor any tools for investors to mitigate the havoc that systemic risks can wreck on their portfolios. It’s time for MPT to evolve. The authors propose a new imperative to improve finance’s ability to fulfil its twin main purposes: providing adequate returns to individuals and directing capital to where it is needed in the economy. They show how some of the largest investors in the world focus not on picking stocks, but on mitigating systemic risks, such as climate change and a lack of gender diversity, so as to improve the risk/return of the market as a whole, despite current theory saying that should be impossible. "Moving beyond MPT" recognizes the complex relations between investing and the systems on which capital markets rely, "Investing that matters" embraces MPT’s focus on diversification and risk adjusted return, but understands them in the context of the real economy and the total return needs of investors. Whether an investor, an MBA student, a Finance Professor or a sustainability professional, Moving Beyond Modern Portfolio Theory: Investing That Matters is thought-provoking and relevant. Its bold critique shows how the real world already is moving beyond investing orthodoxy.
Abstract: Facing runaway inflation and budget discipline problems in the early 1990s, the Zambian government introduced the so-called cash budget in which government domestic spending is limited to domestic revenue, leaving no room for excess spending. Dinh, Adugna, and Myers review Zambia's experience during the past decade, focusing on the impact of the cash budget on poverty reduction. They conclude that after some initial success in reducing hyperinflation, the cash budget has largely failed to keep inflation at low levels, created a false sense of fiscal security, and distracted policymakers from addressing the fundamental issue of fiscal discipline. More important, it has had a deeply pernicious effect on the quality of service delivery to the poor. Features inherent to the cash budgeting system facilitated a substantial redirection of resources away from the intended targets, such as agencies and ministries that provide social and economic services. The cash budget also eliminated the predictability of cash releases, making effective planning by line ministries difficult. Going forward, Zambia must adopt measures that over time will restore the commitment to budget discipline and shelter budget execution decisions from the pressures of purely short-term exigencies. This paper"a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Division 1, Africa Region"is part of a larger effort in the region to review public expenditure management.
Agenor attempts to examine analytically and empirically the extent to which globalization affects the poor in low- and middle-income countries. He begins with a description of various channels through which trade openness and financial integration may have an adverse effect on poverty. However, the author also stresses the possible nonlinearities involved-possibilities that have seldom been recognized in the ongoing debate. Agenor then presents cross-country regressions that relate measures of real and financial integration to poverty. The regressions control for changes in income per capita and output growth rates, as well as various other macroeconomic and structural variables, such as the inflation tax, changes in the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, health and schooling indicators, and macroeconomic volatility. The author uses not only individual indicators of trade and financial openness but also a "globalization index" based on principal components analysis, and tests for both linear and nonlinear effects. The results suggest the existence of a nonmonotonic, Laffer-type relationship between globalization and poverty. At low levels, globalization appears to hurt the poor; but beyond a certain threshold, it seems to reduce poverty-possibly because it brings with it renewed impetus for reform. So, globalization may hurt the poor not because it went too far, but rather because it did not go far enough.
High levels of protection and domestic support for farmers in industrial countries significantly affect many developing countries, both directly and through the price-depressing effect of agricultural support policies. High tariffs--in both rich and poor countries--and domestic support may also lower the world price of agricultural products, benefiting net importers. Hoekman, Ng, and Olarreaga assess the impact of reducing tariffs and domestic support in a sample of 119 countries. Least developed countries (LDCs) are disproportionately affected by agricultural support policies. More than 18 percent of LDC exports are subject to domestic support in at least one World Trade Organization (WTO) member, as compared to only 9 percent of their imports. For other developing countries the figures are around 4 percent for both their exports and imports. So, the prevailing pattern of trade suggests the world price-reducing effect of agricultural domestic support policies may induce a welfare loss in LDCs. The authors develop a simple partial equilibrium model of global trade in commodities that benefit from domestic support in at least one WTO member. The simulation results suggest there will be large differences between LDCs and other developing economies in terms of the impact of a 50 percent cut in tariffs as compared to a 50 percent cut in domestic support. Developing countries as a group would suffer a welfare loss from a cut in support, while LDCs would experience a small gain. For both groups of countries, tariff reductions by WTO members--including own liberalization--will have a positive effect on welfare. The results show both the importance of focusing on tariffs as well as subsities, and the need for complementary actions to allow a domestic supply response to occur in developing countries if world prices rise. This paper--a product of Trade, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the effects of trade-related policies on developing countries.
In the globalizing economy, national policymakers are often forced to accept the challenge of financial integration. Faced with the potentially destabilizing effects of international financial markets, they have to strengthen financial regulation, importing international best practices and aligning domestic with foreign regulation, to avoid destabilizing phenomena of regulatory arbitrage. The authors explore the main features of the ongoing process of worldwide financial regulatory convergence and the role played by the global dissemination of financial standards and codes. They analyze the reasons behind the generalized acceptance of international best practices and the limits of the standards and codes approach to financial regulatory harmonization.
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