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Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
This important book describes procedures for selecting a model from a large set of competing statistical models. It includes model selection techniques for univariate and multivariate regression models, univariate and multivariate autoregressive models, nonparametric (including wavelets) and semiparametric regression models, and quasi-likelihood and robust regression models. Information-based model selection criteria are discussed, and small sample and asymptotic properties are presented. The book also provides examples and large scale simulation studies comparing the performances of information-based model selection criteria, bootstrapping, and cross-validation selection methods over a wide range of models.
A comprehensive and timely edition on an emerging new trend in time series Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH sets a strong foundation, in terms of distribution theory, for the linear model (regression and ANOVA), univariate time series analysis (ARMAX and GARCH), and some multivariate models associated primarily with modeling financial asset returns (copula-based structures and the discrete mixed normal and Laplace). It builds on the author's previous book, Fundamental Statistical Inference: A Computational Approach, which introduced the major concepts of statistical inference. Attention is explicitly paid to application and numeric computation, with examples of Matlab code throughout. The code offers a framework for discussion and illustration of numerics, and shows the mapping from theory to computation. The topic of time series analysis is on firm footing, with numerous textbooks and research journals dedicated to it. With respect to the subject/technology, many chapters in Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis cover firmly entrenched topics (regression and ARMA). Several others are dedicated to very modern methods, as used in empirical finance, asset pricing, risk management, and portfolio optimization, in order to address the severe change in performance of many pension funds, and changes in how fund managers work. Covers traditional time series analysis with new guidelines Provides access to cutting edge topics that are at the forefront of financial econometrics and industry Includes latest developments and topics such as financial returns data, notably also in a multivariate context Written by a leading expert in time series analysis Extensively classroom tested Includes a tutorial on SAS Supplemented with a companion website containing numerous Matlab programs Solutions to most exercises are provided in the book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH is suitable for advanced masters students in statistics and quantitative finance, as well as doctoral students in economics and finance. It is also useful for quantitative financial practitioners in large financial institutions and smaller finance outlets.
R is a language and environment for data analysis and graphics. It may be considered an implementation of S, an award-winning language initially - veloped at Bell Laboratories since the late 1970s. The R project was initiated by Robert Gentleman and Ross Ihaka at the University of Auckland, New Zealand, in the early 1990s, and has been developed by an international team since mid-1997. Historically, econometricians have favored other computing environments, some of which have fallen by the wayside, and also a variety of packages with canned routines. We believe that R has great potential in econometrics, both for research and for teaching. There are at least three reasons for this: (1) R is mostly platform independent and runs on Microsoft Windows, the Mac family of operating systems, and various ?avors of Unix/Linux, and also on some more exotic platforms. (2) R is free software that can be downloaded and installed at no cost from a family of mirror sites around the globe, the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN); hence students can easily install it on their own machines. (3) R is open-source software, so that the full source code is available and can be inspected to understand what it really does, learn from it, and modify and extend it. We also like to think that platform independence and the open-source philosophy make R an ideal environment for reproducible econometric research.
Regression methods have been a necessary piece of time arrangement investigation for over a century. As of late, new advancements have made real walks in such territories as non-constant information where a direct model isn't fitting. This book acquaints the peruser with fresher improvements and more assorted regression models and methods for time arrangement examination. Open to any individual who knows about the fundamental present day ideas of factual deduction, Regression Models for Time Series Analysis gives a truly necessary examination of late measurable advancements. Essential among them is the imperative class of models known as summed up straight models (GLM) which gives, under a few conditions, a bound together regression hypothesis reasonable for constant, all out, and check information. The creators stretch out GLM methodology deliberately to time arrangement where the essential and covariate information are both arbitrary and stochastically reliant. They acquaint readers with different regression models created amid the most recent thirty years or somewhere in the vicinity and condense traditional and later outcomes concerning state space models.
A thorough review of the most current regression methods in time series analysis Regression methods have been an integral part of time series analysis for over a century. Recently, new developments have made major strides in such areas as non-continuous data where a linear model is not appropriate. This book introduces the reader to newer developments and more diverse regression models and methods for time series analysis. Accessible to anyone who is familiar with the basic modern concepts of statistical inference, Regression Models for Time Series Analysis provides a much-needed examination of recent statistical developments. Primary among them is the important class of models known as generalized linear models (GLM) which provides, under some conditions, a unified regression theory suitable for continuous, categorical, and count data. The authors extend GLM methodology systematically to time series where the primary and covariate data are both random and stochastically dependent. They introduce readers to various regression models developed during the last thirty years or so and summarize classical and more recent results concerning state space models. To conclude, they present a Bayesian approach to prediction and interpolation in spatial data adapted to time series that may be short and/or observed irregularly. Real data applications and further results are presented throughout by means of chapter problems and complements. Notably, the book covers: * Important recent developments in Kalman filtering, dynamic GLMs, and state-space modeling * Associated computational issues such as Markov chain, Monte Carlo, and the EM-algorithm * Prediction and interpolation * Stationary processes
Writing in honour of Sid Yakowitz, 50 internationally known scholars have collectively contributed 30 papers on modelling uncertainty to this volume. These include papers with a theoretical emphasis and others that focus on applications.
An essential guide on high dimensional multivariate time series including all the latest topics from one of the leading experts in the field Following the highly successful and much lauded book, Time Series Analysis—Univariate and Multivariate Methods, this new work by William W.S. Wei focuses on high dimensional multivariate time series, and is illustrated with numerous high dimensional empirical time series. Beginning with the fundamentalconcepts and issues of multivariate time series analysis,this book covers many topics that are not found in general multivariate time series books. Some of these are repeated measurements, space-time series modelling, and dimension reduction. The book also looks at vector time series models, multivariate time series regression models, and principle component analysis of multivariate time series. Additionally, it provides readers with information on factor analysis of multivariate time series, multivariate GARCH models, and multivariate spectral analysis of time series. With the development of computers and the internet, we have increased potential for data exploration. In the next few years, dimension will become a more serious problem. Multivariate Time Series Analysis and its Applications provides some initial solutions, which may encourage the development of related software needed for the high dimensional multivariate time series analysis. Written by bestselling author and leading expert in the field Covers topics not yet explored in current multivariate books Features classroom tested material Written specifically for time series courses Multivariate Time Series Analysis and its Applications is designed for an advanced time series analysis course. It is a must-have for anyone studying time series analysis and is also relevant for students in economics, biostatistics, and engineering.
This practical, user-oriented second edition describes how to use statistical modeling and analysis methods for forecasting and prediction problems. Statistical and mathematical terms are introduced only as they are needed, and every effort has been made to keep the mathematical and statistical prerequisites to a minimum. Every technique that is introduced is illustrated by fully worked numerical examples. Not only is the coverage of traditional forecasting methods greatly expanded in this new edition, but a number of new techniques and methods are covered as well.
The fourth edition of this popular graduate textbook, like its predecessors, presents a balanced and comprehensive treatment of both time and frequency domain methods with accompanying theory. Numerous examples using nontrivial data illustrate solutions to problems such as discovering natural and anthropogenic climate change, evaluating pain perception experiments using functional magnetic resonance imaging, and monitoring a nuclear test ban treaty. The book is designed as a textbook for graduate level students in the physical, biological, and social sciences and as a graduate level text in statistics. Some parts may also serve as an undergraduate introductory course. Theory and methodology are separated to allow presentations on different levels. In addition to coverage of classical methods of time series regression, ARIMA models, spectral analysis and state-space models, the text includes modern developments including categorical time series analysis, multivariate spectral methods, long memory series, nonlinear models, resampling techniques, GARCH models, ARMAX models, stochastic volatility, wavelets, and Markov chain Monte Carlo integration methods. This edition includes R code for each numerical example in addition to Appendix R, which provides a reference for the data sets and R scripts used in the text in addition to a tutorial on basic R commands and R time series. An additional file is available on the book’s website for download, making all the data sets and scripts easy to load into R.