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This volume considers the implications of revived interest in regional integration for the world trading system.
This new book highlights the multifaceted effects of regional trade agreements and outlines the strategic options for EU trade policy. It points out what is new about this most recent phase of regionalism and analyzes the effects on economic welfare and trade transaction costs. The authors draw upon elements of game theory to explore a self-reinforcing mechanism that is resulting in a potentially damaging race for markets. They focus in particular on the multiple impacts of regionalism on the WTO and the multilateral trading order. The book arrives at an opportune time, as the Doha Round is reaching a critical phase.
A collection of revised papers from the 'Multilateralizing Regionalism' conference, held at the WTO in September 2007.
November 1996 Do the forces that regional integration arrangements set up encourage or discourage a trend toward globally freer trade? We don't know yet. The literature on regionalism versus multilateralism is growing as economists and political scientists grapple with the question of whether regional integration arrangements are good or bad for the multilateral system. Are regional integration arrangements building blocks or stumbling blocks, in Jagdish Bhagwati's phrase, or stepping stones toward multilateralism? As economists worry about the ability of the World Trade Organization to maintain the GATT's unsteady yet distinct momentum toward liberalism, and as they contemplate the emergence of world-scale regional integration arrangements (the EU, NAFTA, FTAA, APEC, and, possibly, TAFTA), the question has never been more pressing. Winters switches the focus from the immediate consequences of regionalism for the economic welfare of the integrating partners to the question of whether it sets up forces that encourage or discourage evolution toward globally freer trade. The answer is, We don't know yet. One can build models that suggest either conclusion, but these models are still so abstract that they should be viewed as parables rather than sources of testable predictions. Winters offers conclusions about research strategy as well as about the world we live in. Among the conclusions he reaches: * Since we value multilateralism, we had better work out what it means and, if it means different things to different people, make sure to identify the sense in which we are using the term. * Sector-specific lobbies are a danger if regionalism is permitted because they tend to stop blocs from moving all the way to global free trade. In the presence of lobbies, trade diversion is good politics even if it is bad economics. * Regionalism's direct effect on multilateralism is important, but possibly more so is the indirect effect it has by changing the ways in which groups of countries interact and respond to shocks in the world economy. * Regionalism, by allowing stronger internalization of the gains from trade liberalization, seems likely to facilitate freer trade when it is initially highly restricted. * The possibility of regionalism probably increases the risks of catastrophe in the trading system. The insurance incentives for joining regional arrangements and the existence of shiftable externalities both lead to such a conclusion. So too does the view that regionalism is a means to bring trade partners to the multilateral negotiating table because it is essentially coercive. Using regionalism for this purpose may have been an effective strategy, but it is also risky. This paper - a product of the International Trade Division, International Economics Department - was prepared for a conference on regional integration sponsored by the Centre for Economic Policy Research, La Coru-a, Spain, April 26-27, 1996, and will appear in the conference proceedings.
This comprehensive book addresses one of the most important aspects of international trade, namely, regional trade and regional integration agreements (RIAs). The focus of intense global interest and debate over the last decade, RIAs have become an integr
What are the choices the Asia-Pacific community will face if it proceeds further down the path of developing preferential regional trading arrangements? Fragmentation of the region into preferential trading arrangements on a bilateral or subregional basis promises relatively little economic gain and considerable risk of increased trade conflict. Larger preferential trading blocs, spanning the whole of East Asia, the Western Pacific, or the APEC membership, offer greater potential economic benefits but also face formidable political obstacles. In this study, Scollay and Gilbert weigh the economic consequences of the increased use of preferential trading arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region, whether these develop on the basis of trans-Pacific cooperation or solely within the East Asian or Western Pacific sub-regions. They evaluate the economic effects of both the existing proposals for new bilateral and multilateral agreements and of more far-reaching developments involving the creation of a substantial trading bloc or blocs in the region. Comparisons between the economic effects of establishing such bloc(s) in the region and the effects of achieving APEC's Bogor goals on the basis of "open regionalism" suggest that the latter approach continues to offer a worthwhile alternative. The study demonstrates that the benefits of global free trade dominate those available from establishment of any combination of major blocs or from APEC's "open regionalism".
Regional trade agreements (RTAs) are increasingly portrayed as a threat to the free global exchange of goods and services. They involve an ever-growing share of world trade. The proportion of world trade covered by such accords is expected to grow from 43% today to 55% in 2005, if all regional agreements now in discussion are actually put into place. Moreover, in the event of a log jam in the ongoing Doha round of multilateral trade talks under the WTO, many WTO members are ready to place even greater emphasis on regional initiatives. Against this backdrop, this study compares rule-making provisions in regional trade agreements with those of the WTO in individual chapters covering ten specific areas: services, labour mobility, investment, competition policy, trade facilitation, government procurement, intellectual property rights, contingency protection, environment, and rules of origin. Three main questions are addressed: How far do RTAs go beyond existing multilateral trade rules in the WTO? Do they present a divergence from or a convergence with the multilateral system? What are the effects on non-members? It emerges clearly from the ten papers that precisely because they are both a sub-set of liberalisation and an exception to the most-favoured-nation (MFN) principle, RTAs have both positive and negative impacts. How these positive and negative elements play out is, accordingly, a central theme of this study. The principal purpose of this book is to clarify the relationship between regionalism and the multilateral trading system. It also aims to provide an analytical framework for WTO members' ongoing consideration of how best to manage that relationship and how to foster the complementarities between RTAs and the multilateral system.
There is no doubt that the open multilateral trading system after World War II was a key ingredient in the rapid economic development of the entire world. Especially in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, exports increased dramatically both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GNP. In the 1980s, however, preferential trading arrangements (PTAs) began to emerge as significant factors affecting world trade. This volume contains thirteen papers that analyze the tensions between multilateral trading systems and preferential trade arrangements and the impact of these tensions on East Asia. The first four chapters introduce PTAs conceptually and focus on the unique political issues that these agreements involve. The next five essays present more direct empirical analyses of existing PTAs and their economic effects, primarily in East Asia. The last four papers concentrate on the outcomes of individual East Asian nations' trading policies in specific instances of preferential agreements.
This book provides an in-depth analysis of "Mega-Regionals", the new generation of trans-regional free-trade agreements (FTAs) currently under negotiation, and their effect on the future of international economic law. The main focus centres on the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), but the findings are also applicable to similar agreements under negotiation, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).The specific features of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements raise a number of issues with respect to their potential effect on the current system of international trade and investment law. These include the consequences of Mega-Regionals for the most-favoured-nation (MFN) principle, their relation to the multilateral system of the World Trade Organization (WTO), their democratic legitimacy and their interaction with existing bilateral investment treaties (BITs).The book is intended for academics and practitioners working in the field of international economic law.
This book describes the rules governing regional trade agreements, providing new insights into the interplay between regional and multilateral trade rules.