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This paper determines the impacts of the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) for Brazil under alternative assumptions concerning the returns to scale and the nature of competition in several industries, emphasizing the effects on the agribusiness activities. The GTAPinGAMS applied general equilibrium model is used to run the simulations. The results suggest different changes in output, imports, exports, and prices under alternative assumptions about market structure. The FTAA allows the exploitation of economies of scale and reduction of markups in almost all industries, with evidences of rationalizing and pro-competitive effects occurring in the industries under imperfect competition. The welfare gains from the FTAA are larger in the model with market imperfections. If the FTAA excludes products from the agribusiness sectors, the Brazilian agricultural industries will exploit less the economies of scale.
Harrison, Rutherford, Tarr, and Gurgel estimate that the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA), the EU-MERCOSUR agreement, and multilateral trade policy changes will all be beneficial for Brazil. The Brazilian government strategy of simultaneously negotiating the FTAA and the EU-MERCOSUR agreement, while supporting multilateral liberalization through the Doha Agenda, will increase the benefits of each of these policies.The authors estimate that the poorest households typically gain roughly three to four times the average for Brazil from any of the policies considerethe United States protects its most highly protected markets. Both the FTAA and the EU-MERCOSUR agreements are net trade-creating for the countries involved, but excluded countries almost always lose from the agreements. The authors estimate that multilateral trade liberalization of 50 percent in tariffs and export subsidies results in gains to the world more than four times greater than either the FTAA or the EU-MERCOSUR agreement. This shows the continued importance to the world trading community of the multilateral negotiations.This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the impact of trade liberalization on poverty.
Over the medium time horizon, skill upgrading, differentials in sectoral technological progress, and migration of labor out of farming activities are some of the major structural adjustment factors shaping the evolution of an economy and its connected poverty trends. The main focus of the authors is understanding, for the case of Brazil, how a trade shock interacts with these structural forces and ascertaining whether it enhances or hinders medium-term poverty reduction. In particular, they consider the interactions between the migration of labor out of agriculture, a potentially important poverty reduction factor, and trade liberalization, which increases the price incentives to stay in agriculture. A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model simulates Doha scenarios and compares them against a business as usual scenario. The authors estimate the poverty effects using a microsimulation model that primarily takes into account individuals' labor supply decisions. Their analysis shows that trade liberalization does contribute to structural poverty reduction. But unless increased productivity and stronger growth rates are attributed to trade reform, its contribution to medium-term poverty reduction is rather small.
Poverty reduction is deemed to be a centerpiece of the Doha Development Agenda currently being negotiated under the auspices of the WTO. Yet there is considerable debate about the poverty impacts of such an agreement. Some are convinced it will increase poverty, while others are equally convinced that it will lead to poverty reduction. This book brings the best scientific methods to bear on this question, taking into account the specific characteristics embodied in the Doha Development Agenda.
By looking at the link between trade liberalization and pro-poor growth in Nepal, this book explores how a developing and transition economy can attain higher and pro-poor growth along with the ongoing trend of globalization. The author develops a social accounting database for Nepal and applies it to quantify computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the trade-offs between growth and distribution that are associated with opening up the economy and deregulating it. The book presents a number of pragmatic scenarios that bring about the desired pro-poor growth effects in order to demonstrate possible outcomes for policy making. The research findings apply to other economies with similar macroeconomic structure to Nepal; those small economies with a dominant, traditional, and stagnant agriculture; fragile industrial base, weak and volatile external sector, and almost half of the population living below the poverty line. This book will be of considerable interest to students and scholars in the areas of development economics, political economy of policy reforms, and trade and poverty with special emphasis on South Asia.
This book gauges possible development implications of current WTO trade negotiations by examining various proposals and assessing their likely economic impact. The experiences of a number of countries at different levels of development and across various regions are examined to ascertain the impact of their trade reforms.
A companion to the bestseller, The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution, this title deals with theoretical challenges and cutting-edge macro-micro linkage models. The authors compare the predictive and analytical power of various macro-micro linkage techniques using the traditional RHG approach as a benchmark to evaluate standard policies, such as a typical stabilization package and a typical structural reform policy.
The period of transition from socialism to capitalism in parts of Europe and Asia over the past 25 years has attracted considerable interest in academia and beyond. From the Editors of Palgrave's iconic series 'Studies in Economic Transition' comes the Palgrave Dictionary of Emerging Markets and Transition Economics. This dictionary addresses the needs of students, lecturers and the interested general public to quickly find definitions and explanations of topics, institutions, personalities and processes in this historical phase of changing societies, which as such is not concluded. Today newly emerging market economies try to learn from the experiences of transition economies. Those who love The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics will enjoy the format of this Dictionary, which uses an encyclopaedia-based approach, where articles not only define the terms but provide an overview of the evolution of the term or theory and also touch on the current debates.
Abstract: This paper addresses the potential effects of the Doha round of trade negotiations on poverty and income distribution in Brazil, using an applied general equilibrium (AGE) and micro-simulation model of Brazil tailored for income distribution and poverty analysis. Of particular importance is the fact that the representative household hypothesis is replaced by a detailed representation of households. The model distinguishes 10 different labor types and has 270 different household expenditure patterns. Income can originate from 41 different production activities (which produce 52 commodities), located in 27 different regions in the country. The AGE model communicates to a micro-simulation model that has 112,055 Brazilian households and 263,938 adults. Poverty and income distribution indices are computed over the entire sample of households and persons, before and after the policy shocks. Model results show that even important trade policy shocks, such as those applied in this study, do not generate dramatic changes in the structure of poverty and income distribution in the Brazilian economy. The simulated effects on poverty and income distribution are positive, but rather small. The benefits are concentrated in the poorest households.