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In line with the weaker global outlook, growth in Asia is expected to be slightly lower in 2011-12 than forecast in April 2011, mainly as a result of weakening external demand, but the expansion should remain healthy, supported by domestic demand, which has been generally resilient. Overheating pressures remain elevated in a number of economies, with credit growth still robust and inflation momentum generally high, though inflation is expected to recede modestly after peaking in 2011. The sell-off in Asian financial markets in August and September 2011 underscores that an escalation of euro area financial turbulence and a renewed slowdown in the United States could have severe macroeconomic and financial spillovers to Asia. Against this backdrop, Asian low-income and Pacific Island economies face particular challenges in the near and medium term. In low-income countries, the fight against inflation is complicated by strong second-round effects, the need to phase out subsidies, and less well-anchored inflation expectations. Pacific Island economies need to undertake further structural reforms to lift potential growth. The downside risks to growth amid persistent overheating pressures present Asian policymakers with a delicate balancing act, as they need to guard against risks to growth but also limit the adverse impact of prolonged easy financial conditions on inflation and balance sheet vulnerabilities. At the same time, the weakness in global demand only confirms that Asia would greatly benefit from further progress in rebalancing growth by developing domestic sources of demand. In addition to structural reforms, this would require a reprioritization of fiscal spending, in order to create fiscal space for critical infrastructure investment and social priority expenditure.
In line with the weaker global outlook, growth in Asia is expected to be slightly lower in 2011-12 than forecast in April 2011, mainly as a result of weakening external demand, but the expansion should remain healthy, supported by domestic demand, which has been generally resilient. Overheating pressures remain elevated in a number of economies, with credit growth still robust and inflation momentum generally high, though inflation is expected to recede modestly after peaking in 2011. The sell-off in Asian financial markets in August and September 2011 underscores that an escalation of euro area financial turbulence and a renewed slowdown in the United States could have severe macroeconomic and financial spillovers to Asia. Against this backdrop, Asian low-income and Pacific Island economies face particular challenges in the near and medium term. In low-income countries, the fight against inflation is complicated by strong second-round effects, the need to phase out subsidies, and less well-anchored inflation expectations. Pacific Island economies need to undertake further structural reforms to lift potential growth. The downside risks to growth amid persistent overheating pressures present Asian policymakers with a delicate balancing act, as they need to guard against risks to growth but also limit the adverse impact of prolonged easy financial conditions on inflation and balance sheet vulnerabilities. At the same time, the weakness in global demand only confirms that Asia would greatly benefit from further progress in rebalancing growth by developing domestic sources of demand. In addition to structural reforms, this would require a reprioritization of fiscal spending, in order to create fiscal space for critical infrastructure investment and social priority expenditure.
After the strong rebound of 6.5 percent posted in 2021, growth in Asia and Pacific is expected to moderate to 4.0 percent in 2022 amid an uncertain global environment and rise to 4.3 percent in 2023. Inflation has risen above most central bank targets, but is expected to peak in late 2022. As the effects of the pandemic wane, the region faces new headwinds from global financial tightening and an expected slowdown of external demand. While Asia remains a relative bright spot in an increasingly lethargic global economy, it is expected to expand at a rate that is well below the average rate of 51⁄2 percent seen over the preceding two decades. Policy support is gradually being withdrawn as inflation rises and idle capacity is utilized, but monetary policy should be ready to tighten faster if the rise in core inflation turns out to be more persistent. The region’s rising public debt lev¬els call for continued fiscal consolidation, so interven¬tions to mitigate global food and energy shocks should be well targeted, temporary, and budget neutral. Structural reforms are needed to boost growth and mitigate the scarring that is expected from the pan¬demic, especially making up for lost schooling through investments in education and training, promoting diversification, addressing the debt overhang from the pandemic, and harnessing digitalization. Strong multilateralism—including through international organizations, the Group of Twenty and regional processes—will be needed to mitigate geo-economic fragmentation and deliver much needed progress on climate change commitments.
East Asia has been a paragon of global development success. The dramatic transformation of the region over the past half century—with a succession of countries having progressed from low-income to middle-income and even to high-income status—has been built on what has come to be known as the “East Asian development model.†? A combination of policies that fostered outward-oriented, labor-intensive growth while strengthening basic human capital and providing sound economic governance has been instrumental in moving hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and into economic security. Yet East Asia’s economic resurgence remains incomplete. More than 90 percent of its people now live in 10 middle-income countries, many of which can realistically aspire to high-income status in the next generation or two. But these countries are still much less affluent and productive than their high-income counterparts. Even as the region’s middle-income countries attempt to move up to high-income status, they confront a rapidly changing global and regional economic environment. Slowing growth in global trade and shifts in its patterns, rapid technological change, and evolving country circumstances all present challenges to sustaining productivity growth, fostering inclusion, and enhancing state effectiveness. A Resurgent East Asia: Navigating a Changing World is about how policy makers across developing East Asia will need to adapt their development model to effectively address these challenges in the coming decade and sustain the region’s remarkable development performance. “The world is changing. How do East Asia’s developing economies navigate this change? This is a commendable book on this topic—a must-read for policy makers, academia, and students who are interested in East Asia.†? — Chatib Basri, Former Minister of Finance, Government of Indonesia “A Resurgent East Asia is a vital publication for the most successful region as it looks to the future and the expectations of its citizens. This study helps to identify the new areas of risk and to suggest ways to ameliorate them. In so doing, it is an invaluable resource for governments. Based on first-rate analysis, it is a must-read for policy makers and everyone interested in East Asia’s development prospects!†? — Danny Leipziger, Managing Director, The Growth Dialogue, and Professor of International Business, George Washington University “This report delivers a careful and rigorous analysis of the strengths of East Asia’s ‘growth with equity’ development strategy. While noting the model’s success in lifting millions out of poverty, the report also warns of the looming challenge of maintaining growth with inclusion, and it highlights the need for countries to improve their social protection systems and ensure that opportunities are fair and available to all. A must-read for policy makers and development practitioners alike.†? — Ana Revenga, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Growth in Asia and the Pacific is projected to increase this year to 4.6 percent, up from 3.8 percent in 2022, an upgrade of 0.3 percent from the October 2022 World Economic Outlook. This means the region would contribute over 70 percent to global growth. Asia’s dynamism will be driven primarily by the recovery in China and resilient growth in India, while growth in the rest of Asia is expected to bottom out in 2023, in line with other regions. However, this dynamic outlook does not imply that policymakers in the region can afford to be complacent. The pressures from diminished global demand will weigh on the outlook. Headline inflation has been easing, but remains above targets in most countries, while core inflation has proven to be sticky. Although spillovers from turmoil in the European and US banking sectors have been limited thus far, vulnerabilities to global financial tightening and volatile market conditions, especially in the corporate and household sectors, remain elevated. Growth is expected to fall to 3.9 percent five years out, the lowest medium-term forecast in recent history, thus contributing to one of the lowest medium-term global growth forecasts since 1990.
Despite the rapid economic growth and poverty reduction, inequality in Asia worsened during last two decades. We focus on the determinants of growth inclusiveness and suggest options for reform. A cross cross-country empirical analysis suggests that fiscal redistribution, monetary policy aimed at macro stability, and structural reforms to stimulate trade, reduce unemployment and increase productivity are important determinants of inclusive growth. The main policy implication of our analysis is that there is still room to strengthen such policies in Asia to better achieve growth with shared prosperity. In particular, scenario simulations based on our results suggests that the effect of expanding fiscal redistribution on inclusive growth could be sizeable in emerging Asia, since the estimated improvement in our proxy of inclusive growth – a measure of growth in average income “corrected” for the equity impact—ranges from about 1 to about 8 percentage points.
East Asia has been a paragon of global development success. The dramatic transformation of the region over the past half century--with a succession of countries having progressed from low-income to middle-income and even to high-income status--has been built on what has come to be known as the "East Asian development model." A combination of policies that fostered outward-oriented, labor-intensive growth while strengthening basic human capital and providing sound economic governance has been instrumental in moving hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and into economic security. Yet East Asia's economic resurgence remains incomplete. More than 90 percent of its people now live in 10 middle-income countries, many of which can realistically aspire to high-income status in the next generation or two. But these countries are still much less affluent and productive than their high-income counterparts. Even as the region's middle-income countries attempt to move up to high-income status, they confront a rapidly changing global and regional economic environment. Slowing growth in global trade and shifts in its patterns, rapid technological change, and evolving country circumstances all present challenges to sustaining productivity growth, fostering inclusion, and enhancing state effectiveness. A Resurgent East Asia: Navigating a Changing World is about how policy makers across developing East Asia will need to adapt their development model to effectively address these challenges in the coming decade and sustain the region's remarkable development performance. "The world is changing. How do East Asia's developing economies navigate this change? This is a commendable book on this topic--a must-read for policy makers, academia, and students who are interested in East Asia." -- Chatib Basri, Former Minister of Finance, Government of Indonesia "A Resurgent East Asia is a vital publication for the most successful region as it looks to the future and the expectations of its citizens. This study helps to identify the new areas of risk and to suggest ways to ameliorate them. In so doing, it is an invaluable resource for governments. Based on first-rate analysis, it is a must-read for policy makers and everyone interested in East Asia's development prospects!" -- Danny Leipziger, Managing Director, The Growth Dialogue, and Professor of International Business, George Washington University "This report delivers a careful and rigorous analysis of the strengths of East Asia's 'growth with equity' development strategy. While noting the model's success in lifting millions out of poverty, the report also warns of the looming challenge of maintaining growth with inclusion, and it highlights the need for countries to improve their social protection systems and ensure that opportunities are fair and available to all. A must-read for policy makers and development practitioners alike." -- Ana Revenga, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
The April 2011 issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific focuses on the policy challenges of managing the next phase of growth after Asia's recovery from the global crisis. The analytical chapters discuss how capital flows to the region may affect the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the role of macroprudential measures in this context, the implications of the Asian supply chain for rebalancing growth across the region, and the policy challenges for Asian low-income and Pacific Island countries. Economic recovery in Asia as a whole has been rapid (8.3 percent in 2010) and fueled by both exports and domestic demand. Looking ahead, growth is expected to continue at a more moderate but also more sustainable pace in 2011 and 2012, led by China and India. Meanwhile, new risks to the outlook have emerged. The full human cost and impact on infrastructure of the mid-March earthquake and tsunami in Japan remain to be determined. The steady response of the Japanese government and people has helped to contain the effects of the disaster on production, but a risk remains of prolonged disruptions in production that could spill over to other Asian economies in the regional supply chain. Moreover, tensions in the Middle East and North Africa and related risk of further oil price spikes could disrupt global growth and affect Asian exports. Finally, pockets of overheating have emerged in Asia, as core inflation and credit growth have accelerated in several Asian economies. The need to tighten macroeconomic policy stances has become more pressing than it was six months ago.
The Pacific Trade and Development (PAFTAD) conference series has been at the forefront of analysing challenges facing the economies of East Asia and the Pacific since its first meeting in Tokyo in January 1968. The 38th PAFTAD conference met at a key time to consider international economic integration. Earlier in the year, the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union and the United States elected Donald Trump as their next president on the back of an inward-looking ‘America First’ promise. Brexit and President Trump represent a growing, and worrying, trend towards protectionism in the North Atlantic countries that have led the process of globalisation since the end of the Second World War. The chapters in the volume describe the state of play in Asian economic integration but, more importantly, look forward to the region’s future, and the role it might play in defending the global system that has underwritten its historic rise. Asia has the potential to stand as a bulwark against the dual threats of North Atlantic protectionism and slowing trade growth, but collective leadership will be needed regionally and difficult domestic reforms will be required in each country.