Download Free Regime Stability In The Middle East An Analytical Model To Assess The Possibility Of Regime Change Book in PDF and EPUB Free Download. You can read online Regime Stability In The Middle East An Analytical Model To Assess The Possibility Of Regime Change and write the review.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
The wave of uprisings that swept through Arab states in recent years has transformed the Middle East. Against this background, there is a need for a comprehensive analytical model to help assess both the likelihood of regime stability and the probability of regime change. This study proposes a model to identify the key elements that encourage or inhibit regime change. Assigning numerical weight to each of these elements, it analyzes the dynamics between them. Looking at case studies of four states through the prism of the proposed model, the authors examine the elements that led to the instability in Egypt of January 2011, explain why the Saudi Arabian and Iranian regimes are stable, and provide a better understanding of the struggle in Syria, pointing out factors that will be critical to the fate of the civil war.
The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect.
This book examines the structure of political power amongst elites inside Saudi Arabia and how they might cope with the very serious challenge posed by succession. Presenting a new and refreshing theoretical approach that links elite integration with regime stability, the author shows that the kingdom’s royal elite is far more integrated than it has generally been given credit for. Based on extensive field work inside Saudi Arabia, the book offers a detailed, up-to-date survey and assessment of all the key sectors of the elites in the country. The author examines how the succession process has been used in highly different circumstances - including deposition, assassination, and death by old age - and demonstrates how regime stability in Saudi Arabia rests on the royal family’s ability to unite and to solve the challenge of succession. He offers a strong analysis of intra-ruling family mechanisms and dynamics in this notoriously private royal family, and addresses the question of whether, as the number of royals rapidly grows, the elite is able to remain integrated. Providing a rare insight into the issues facing the royal family and ruling elite in Saudi Arabia, this book will be of great interest to scholars and students of Middle Eastern politics, and Saudi Arabia in particular.
This book examines regime stability and political change in the heartland of the Middle East. It discusses the distribution of power within each regime of the Middle East; the sources of regime legitimacy; and the social, economic, and ideological trends influencing change in the region.
Less than twenty-four months after the hope-filled Arab uprising, the popular movement had morphed into a dystopia of resurgent dictators, failed states, and civil wars. Egypt's epochal transition to democracy ended in a violent military coup. Yemen and Libya collapsed into civil war, while Bahrain erupted in smothering sectarian repression. Syria proved the greatest victim of all, ripped apart by internationally fueled insurgencies and an externally supported, bloody-minded regime. Amidst the chaos, a virulently militant group declared an Islamic State, seizing vast territories and inspiring terrorism across the globe. What happened? The New Arab Wars is a profound illumination of the causes of this nightmare. It details the costs of the poor choices made by regional actors, delivers a scathing analysis of Western misreadings of the conflict, and condemns international interference that has stoked the violence. Informed by commentators and analysts from the Arab world, Marc Lynch's narrative of a vital region's collapse is both wildly dramatic and likely to prove definitive. Most important, he shows that the region's upheavals have only just begun -- and that the hopes of Arab regimes and Western policy makers to retreat to old habits of authoritarian stability are doomed to fail.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.
Political shocks have come to be considered highly salient for explaining major changes to international politics and to the foreign policies of states. Such shocks can occur at all levels of analysis: domestically, dyadically, regionally, or globally. They range from political phenomena such as coups and wars to ecological catastrophes. These shocks are sufficiently disruptive to cause foreign policy makers to reconsider their foreign policy orientations and to contemplate major changes to their policies. In fact, some have argued that it is mostly through political shocks that fundamental policy change occurs in most states. No wonder then that political shocks are now increasingly part of the toolbox of considerations used by foreign policy and international relations scholars as they focus on understanding patterns of conflict and cooperation between states. Given the salience of political shocks to understand foreign policy change, this book brings together a group of both senior and more junior scholars whose previous work has shown substantial promise for moving forward theory and empirical analysis. Their combined efforts in this book highlight the value of multiple theoretical and empirical approaches to a clearer understanding of the nature of political shocks and their consequences for foreign policy and international politics.
The war in Iraq seemed to bring to a head underlying differences between the United States and the vast majority of European countries regarding the best means to maintain international peace and stability. The unilateralism of the United States as opposed to the multilateralism of the European Union is seen as a very significant source of potential rivalry between the two actors. This volume examines in detail whether the policies of the United States and the EU are truly diverging with respect to the most pressing issues facing North Africa, or whether, in fact, they are converging in terms of objectives to be achieved and strategies for their implementation. Through a number of papers that include both comparative and case specific studies, this book enables a better understanding of the differences and similarities in EU and US foreign policies and security strategies for the region, a clearer analysis of their respective democracy promotion policies, and a better examination of their respective approach to the ‘Islamist question’ in light of the continued success of such movements. This book was originally published as a special issue of the Journal of North African Studies.
A comprehensive analysis of politics in a young European democracy, this book describes the principal features of Poland's democratic system-the political institutions, parties, elections, and leaders that have shaped the transition from communism. Raymond Taras examines the complex Walesa phenomenon; the comeback of the communists; and the uneasy