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A Brookings Institution Press and Asian Development Bank Institute publication Meet the next global currency: the Chinese renminbi, or the "redback." Following the global financial crisis of 2008, China's major monetary policy objective is the internationalization of the renminbi, that is, to create an inter-national role for its currency akin to the international role currently played by the U.S. dollar. Renminbi internationalization is a hot topic, for good reason. It is, essentially, a window onto the Chinese government's aspirations and the larger process of economic and financial transformation. Making the renminbi a global currency requires rebalancing the Chinese economy, developing the country's financial markets and opening them to the rest of the world, and moving to a more flexible exchange rate. In other words, the internationalization of the renminbi is a monetary and financial issue with much broader supra-monetary and financial implications. This book offers a new perspective on the larger issues of economic, financial, and institutional change in what will eventually be the world's largest economy.
"This book argues that only by reforming the international monetary system can we prevent financial crises in the future and the internationalization of the Renminbi, China's national currency, will be an important step in the process. Just as the old saying goes, "An old building needs to be demolished before a new one can be erected in its place," there will be no construction without destruction. The commencement of the dismantling of the old monetary system is also the beginning of the construction of the new one. Contrary to Western rhetoric, which portrays China as part of the cause of the recent financial crisis, the author contends that China is actually a victim of the current unjust international economic and monetary system. To address the imbalance and break the dollar-dominated international monetary system, the author calls for the internationalization of the Renminbi and diversification of the international monetary system. Written by one of the foremost financial practitioners in China, this book is thought-provoking and provides a unique Chinese perspective on how the international monetary system should be reformed, what the future system should look like and the role China should play in the process. It is a required reading for anyone interested in understanding China's own vision in its rise in the global political, economic and financial systems."--
This book argues that only by reforming the international monetary system can we prevent financial crises in the future and the internationalization of the Renminbi, China's national currency, will be an important step in the process.Just as the old saying goes, 'An old building needs to be demolished before a new one can be erected in its place,' there will be no construction without destruction. The commencement of the dismantling of the old monetary system is also the beginning of the construction of the new one. Contrary to Western rhetoric, which portrays China as part of the cause of the recent financial crisis, the author contends that China is actually a victim of the current unjust international economic and monetary system. To address the imbalance and break the dollar-dominated international monetary system, the author calls for the internationalization of the Renminbi and diversification of the international monetary system.Written by one of the foremost financial practitioners in China, this book is thought-provoking and provides a unique Chinese perspective on how the international monetary system should be reformed, what the future system should look like and the role China should play in the process. It is a required reading for anyone interested in understanding China's own vision in its rise in the global political, economic and financial systems.
China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.
China has experienced a remarkable transformation since the 1990s. It now boasts the second-largest — some would argue the largest — economy in the world, having evolved from a closed economy into the leading goods-trading nation. China’s economic rise has given it increasing prominence in international monetary and financial governance, but it also exposes China to new risks associated with its integration into the global financial system. Drawing insights from economics and political science, Enter the Dragon: China in the International Financial System takes a broad conceptual approach and tackles the questions that accompany China’s ascendance in international finance: What are the motivations and consequences of China’s effort to internationalize the renminbi? What is the political logic underlying China’s foreign financial policy? What forces have shaped China’s preferences and capacities in global financial governance? Enter the Dragon contributes to the ongoing debate over China’s political interests, its agenda for economic and financial cooperation, and the domestic and international implications of its economic rise. Bringing together experts from both inside and outside of China, this volume argues that China’s rise in the international financial system is a highly complex and political process, and can only be understood by incorporating analysis of domestic and international political economy.
What is the extent of currency diversification in the international monetary system? How has it evolved over time? In this paper, we quantify the degree of currency diversification using regression methods of currency co-movements to determine the extent to which national currencies across the world belong to a reserve currency bloc. We then use these estimates to calculate the economic size of each currency bloc. A key contribution of our paper is that we quantify the size of the Chinese renminbi bloc. Our analysis suggests that the international monetary system has transitioned from a bi-polar system - consisting of the U.S. dollar and the euro - to a tri-polar one that includes the renminbi. The dollar bloc is estimated to continue to dominate, having the largest share in global GDP (40 percent), followed by the renminbi (30 percent) and the euro blocs (20 percent). The geographical area of influence for the RMB bloc appears to be most evident among the BRICS’ currencies. The British pound and the Japanese yen blocs appear to play minor roles.
This report presents a set of concrete proposals of increasing ambition for the reform of the international monetary system. The proposals aim at improving the international provision of liquidity in order to limit the effects of individual and systemic crises and decrease their frequency. The recommendations outlined in this report include: / Develop alternatives to US Treasuries as the dominant reserve asset, including the issuance of mutually guaranteed European bonds and (in the more distant future) the development of a yuan bond market. / Make permanent the temporary swap agreements that were put in place between central banks during the crisis. Establish a starshaped structure of swap lines centred on the IMF. / Strengthen and expand existing IMF liquidity facilities. On the funding side, expand the IMF's existing financing mechanisms and allow the IMF to borrow directly on the markets. / Establish a foreign exchange reserve pooling mechanism with the IMF, providing participating countries with access to additional liquidity and, incidentally, allowing reserves to be recycled into productive investments.To limit moral hazard, the report proposes the setting up of specific surveillance indicators to monitor international funding risks associated with increased insurance provision. The report discusses the role of the special drawing rights (SDRs) and the prospects for turning this unit of account into a true international currency, arguing that it would not solve the fundamental problems of the international monetary system. The report also reviews the conditions under which emerging market economies may use temporary capital controls to counteract excessive and volatile capital flows. The potential for negative externalities requires mutual monitoring and international cooperation in terms of financial regulation and suggests that the mandate of the IMF should be extended to the financial account.
This book proposes that the short-term goal of the current reform of the international monetary system should be a combination of controlling 'imbalances' and 'the risk of the dollar', namely using the balance of payments coordination mechanism to suppress risks by exchange rate cooperation. The reforms of international reserve currencies, international financial institutions, and international financial regulation provide a good external environment for the stable development of the world economy. The book discusses the mechanisms that will continue to support the hegemony of the US dollar and the US dollar system in the future, including the commodity dollar return mechanism, the international debt repayment mechanism, the petroleum dollar pricing mechanism and the dollar rescue mechanism in financial crisis. The book predicts that the current international currency system dominated by the US dollar will remain sustainable for a long time. Finally, the book proposes four strategies for China's participation in the reform of the international monetary system.
Critical analysis of RMB internationalization and the coming global currency shift Renminbi Rising charts the emergence of China's internationalizing currency and provides an in-depth analysis of the global repercussions. Written by a team of renown economics researchers, this book describes the pressures that enabled the emergence of a new global monetary system and why China's Renminbi (RMB) became the default 'second in line' as the U.S. receded from leadership. Policy makers and regulators will appreciate the examination of the motivations behind those driving the shift, and financial professionals will find valuable guidance in the discussion surrounding business opportunities that the RMB brings to the table. Coverage includes the emergence of new Chinese-sponsored financial institutions, the scale of various RMB businesses and the coming transformation of the global financial system. Effective management of international monetary affairs has never been more fundamental to the global economic recovery. The rapid emergence of China's RMB is a transformative event of global significance, and this book provides the context you need to understand the depth and breadth of changes on the horizon. Understand why a new global monetary system is needed Consider the outcomes as China emerges and the U.S. recedes Learn the context and motivations behind principal players' strategies Discover the scale of opportunities presented by the rise of the RMB It is essential for finance professionals and economic policy makers to understand the drivers, progress and likely trajectory of the RMB internationalization and to fully grasp the implications for the global financial system, international business and supporting financial products and services. Renminbi Rising offers detailed analysis of the key opportunities and threats inherent in this major economic shift.
As an economic superpower, China has become an increasingly important player in the international monetary system. Its foreign exchange reserves are the largest in the world and its exchange rate policy has become a major subject of international economic diplomacy. The internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) raises critical questions in international policy circles: What kinds of power is China acquiring in international monetary relations? What are the priorities of the Chinese government? What explains its preferences? In The Great Wall of Money, a distinguished group of contributors addresses these questions from distinct perspectives, revealing the extent to which China’s choices, and global monetary affairs, will be shaped by internal political factors and affect world politics. The RMB is a likely competitor for the dollar in the next couple of decades; its emergence as an important international currency would have substantial effects on the balance of power between the United States and China. By illuminating the politics of China’s international monetary relations, this book provides a timely account of the global economy, the role of the renminbi in international relations, and the trajectory of China’s continuing ascendency in the coming decades.