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Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.
The twenty-first century has seen a breathtaking expansion of statistical methodology, both in scope and in influence. 'Big data', 'data science', and 'machine learning' have become familiar terms in the news, as statistical methods are brought to bear upon the enormous data sets of modern science and commerce. How did we get here? And where are we going? This book takes us on an exhilarating journey through the revolution in data analysis following the introduction of electronic computation in the 1950s. Beginning with classical inferential theories - Bayesian, frequentist, Fisherian - individual chapters take up a series of influential topics: survival analysis, logistic regression, empirical Bayes, the jackknife and bootstrap, random forests, neural networks, Markov chain Monte Carlo, inference after model selection, and dozens more. The distinctly modern approach integrates methodology and algorithms with statistical inference. The book ends with speculation on the future direction of statistics and data science.
Now available in paperback, this book covers some recent developments in statistical inference. It provides methods applicable in problems involving nuisance parameters such as those encountered in comparing two exponential distributions or in ANOVA without the assumption of equal error variances. The generalized procedures are shown to be more powerful in detecting significant experimental results and in avoiding misleading conclusions.
Recent Developments in Clustering and Data Analysis presents the results of clustering and multidimensional data analysis research conducted primarily in Japan and France. This book focuses on the significance of the data itself and on the informatics of the data. Organized into four sections encompassing 35 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the quantification of qualitative data as a method of analyzing statistically multidimensional data. This text then examines the rules of interpretation of correspondence cluster analysis by selecting classes and explaining variables involved in the algorithm of hierarchical classification. Other chapters consider the bootstrap and cross-validation methods, which are applied to the logistic ad nonparametric regression analyses of ordered categorical responses. The final chapter deals with a simpler treatment to classify the sleep state. This book is a valuable resource for researchers and workers in the fields from the behavioral sciences, biological sciences, medicine, and industrial sciences.
Spatial point processes play a fundamental role in spatial statistics and today they are an active area of research with many new applications. Although other published works address different aspects of spatial point processes, most of the classical literature deals only with nonparametric methods, and a thorough treatment of the theory and applications of simulation-based inference is difficult to find. Written by researchers at the top of the field, this book collects and unifies recent theoretical advances and examples of applications. The authors examine Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and explore one of the most important recent developments in MCMC: perfect simulation procedures.
Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.
This book compiles theoretical developments on statistical inference for time series and related models in honor of Masanobu Taniguchi's 70th birthday. It covers models such as long-range dependence models, nonlinear conditionally heteroscedastic time series, locally stationary processes, integer-valued time series, Lévy Processes, complex-valued time series, categorical time series, exclusive topic models, and copula models. Many cutting-edge methods such as empirical likelihood methods, quantile regression, portmanteau tests, rank-based inference, change-point detection, testing for the goodness-of-fit, higher-order asymptotic expansion, minimum contrast estimation, optimal transportation, and topological methods are proposed, considered, or applied to complex data based on the statistical inference for stochastic processes. The performances of these methods are illustrated by a variety of data analyses. This collection of original papers provides the reader with comprehensive and state-of-the-art theoretical works on time series and related models. It contains deep and profound treatments of the asymptotic theory of statistical inference. In addition, many specialized methodologies based on the asymptotic theory are presented in a simple way for a wide variety of statistical models. This Festschrift finds its core audiences in statistics, signal processing, and econometrics.
From earlier ecological studies it has become apparent that simple univariate or bivariate statistics are often inappropriate, and that multivariate statistical analyses must be applied. Despite several difficulties arising from the application of multivariate methods, community ecology has acquired a mathematical framework, with three consequences: it can develop as an exact science; it can be applied operationally as a computer-assisted science to the solution of environmental problems; and it can exchange information with other disciplines using the language of mathematics. This book comprises the invited lectures, as well as working group reports, on the NATO workshop held in Roscoff (France) to improve the applicability of this new method numerical ecology to specific ecological problems.
This unified volume is a collection of invited chapters presenting recent developments in the field of data analysis, with applications to reliability and inference, data mining, bioinformatics, lifetime data, and neural networks. The book is a useful reference for graduate students, researchers, and practitioners in statistics, mathematics, engineering, economics, social science, bioengineering, and bioscience.