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The objective of this study is to evaluate the changes in import and export demand in China and India on the United States and global agriculture in 2020. A spatial equilibrium model is developed to optimize production and trade in China, India, and other major importing and exporting regions in the world. This research focuses on four primary crops: wheat, corn, rice and soybeans. In the model, China and India are divided into 31 and 14 regions, respectively. The model also includes five exporting countries and ten importing countries/regions. The results indicate that India will be able to stay largely self-sufficient in 2020 and China will increase its soybean and corn imports to meet rising domestic demand. The research also gives perspectives on production and trade in the United States and other major exporting and importing countries.
This title was first published in 2003. This prominent and commanding volume collates the best research available on China's agricultural trade. Critically analyzing the agricultural supply and demand factors that underlie trade patterns such as agricultural productivity and policy, it also explores China's agricultural trade and policy including implications for China and elsewhere. Long term issues and productivity growth are taken into consideration, as are specific issues such as WTO accession. The slate of authors combines the leading established scholars in the field and the best of the next generation, including those from China and the West.
It is a cliché that China is the world's manufactured goods factory, but most observers are just as certain that China's farmers are a serious burden on growth. Yet China in fact has the makings of an internationally competitive agricultural sector, with the market setting most prices, farmers shifting quickly toward what they produce best, and significant research and development focused on biotechnology and other promising areas. China's trade interests are changing as its farmers become more competitive, and this transformation will have major implications for world trade talks and global economic welfare. This study traces the steps China has taken to make agriculture a winning sector, the evidence that its initiatives are working, and the course the country is likely to take.
Part I - China's rapid economic growth and its implications for agriculture and food security in China and the rest of the world; Part II - Indian agriculture and scenario for 2020.
China and India are the most extraordinary economic success stories of the developing world. Both nations’ economies have grown dramatically over the past few decades, elevating them from two of the world’s poorest countries into projected economic superpowers. As a result, the numbers of Chinese and Indians living in poverty have rapidly fallen and per capita incomes in China and India have quadrupled and doubled, respectively. This book investigates the reasons for these staggering accomplishments and the lessons that can be applied both to other developing nations and to the problem of poverty that remains in these two countries. The contributors pay particular attention to agriculture and the rural economy, examining how initial conditions and investments and the prioritization and sequencing of different policies and strategies have led to successes, and how the agricultural and rural sectors connect to overall economic expansion. They also emphasize the importance of anti-poverty programs and safety nets in helping poor people escape poverty. The book offers a set of policy and strategic options for future growth and poverty reduction. These include setting the right priorities for public spending, identifying trade and market reforms, building social safety nets for the poorest of the poor, and building accountable institutions that can provide public goods and services effectively. The book concludes by examining future challenges to China and India’s economic development, such as the need to ensure growth that is sustainable, equitable, and environmentally friendly. The Dragon and the Elephant offers valuable insights to development specialists anxious to multiply the benefits experienced by two of the greatest economic successes in recent times.
This book seeks to understand the simultaneous economic and political contributors to China's changing agricultural protection levels and the central government's choice of policy instruments to tax or assist farmers. It theoretically explores the motivation behind agricultural trade-related support policies through extending the two-sector specific factors production model to three sectors, so as to make it more relevant for a one-party state such as China. Chapter three tests that theory empirically, using panel data on agricultural distortions for the period 1981 to 2010 from Anderson and Nelgen (2013). The long-running trend in the level of assistance to the farm sector sees considerable fluctuations in support each year, which has been attributed to fluctuations in international prices of agricultural products. Chapter four seeks to explain the Chinese government's responses to world market price fluctuations. In practice, the government does have other instruments besides trade restrictions to alter domestic producer and consumer prices in the face of fluctuating international prices. Chapter five explores the role that public storage policy can play in contributing to the government's objective of stabilizing the domestic market price of farm products. The final chapter of the book draws out implications for policymakers in China and elsewhere.
China’s rapid rise as a leading global exporter of manufacturing goods since its accession to the WTO in 2001 has been the focus of both admiration and, increasingly, concern, but China is also a large importer of goods, particularly agricultural products. Since China's accession to the WTO, China agricultural exports have increased by 8 percent annually while imports have risen by almost twice that rate. China has become the world's largest importer of agricultural products and the first or second largest destination for many of the world's top agricultural exporters such as the US, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Argentina. This paper examines the evolution of China's agricultural trade since accession and discusses how agricultural trade policy and domestic support policies have evolved, with particularly emphasis on China's experience as complainant and respondent in WTO trade disputes.
China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) has had profound consequences for the structure of its economy, and there will many more before the full benefits of an open trading regime will be realised. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN CHINA explains the background to China's WTO accession and links accession to reforms beginning as far back as 1979. The book highlights China's policymakers' decision to move away from protectionism and grain self-sufficiency and illustrates how China's step away from direct participation in the agricultural sector to indirect regulatory involvement and liberalisation could encourage further economic growth. Yet not all economic growth is cost-free. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN CHINA explores the short-term impacts of WTO accession as well as the mid and long-term implications of greater market involvement at an economy-wide and regional level. Growing divides between coastal and inland regions - and differences in rural and urban growth - will require a better understanding of the consequences of greater market dependency. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN CHINA adds to the existing knowledge of China's agricultural growth as well as the impacts and interrelationships between WTO accession and China's participation in other regional free trade agreements.
Chinese agriculture has experienced some radical changes over the past twenty years. Following the successful introduction of the household production system in the early 1980s, difficulties were encountered in establishing a unified domestic agricultural market in the later 1980s and 1990s. Through a comprehensive analysis of the changes in the Chinese agricultural institutions between the late 1970s and the mid-1990s, this study attempts to provide some answers to the main questions presently facing the agricultural sector. It focuses on the key elements of the pre-reform agricultural institutions, reviews the ways these institutions were refashioned and assesses the resulting changes in agricultural development. The implications of different policy choices are carefully considered with the assistance of a computable general equilibrium model. The author argues that China should push forward with its market-oriented reform measures and introduce the rigours of international competition into the agricultural sector.