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The aim of this thesis is to combine economic theory and empirical analysis in an effort to understand the dynamic effects of real exchange rate determinants, policies and global factors on real exchange rates. This thesis comprises three related essays.The first essay examines the validity of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (BSH). This study introduces a new approach for classifying traded and non-traded industries which allows for country-specific heterogeneity and trade endogeneity, and then uses this classification in the construction of a model that allows for the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find that in developed countries, productivity growth in traded sectors leads to a real depreciation, inconsistent with the BSH; however, higher economic growth will be followed by a real appreciation. The results of developing countries support the BSH, although persistence profiles show slow speeds of convergence.The second essay extends the analysis into a general model of real exchange rates. It investigates the impact of trade liberalisation, productivity growth, monetary policy and government consumption on real exchange rates in four panels of countries consisting of European, non-European developed, Asian developing and non-Asian developing countries. The analysis is based on a panel structural vector error correction model augmented with foreign variables, and a Bayesian approach is used to implement sign restrictions with a penalty function for undertaking impulse response analysis. We find that trade liberalisation generates depreciation and higher government consumption causes persistent appreciation. A contractionary monetary policy shock has only short-run impact on real exchange rates, corresponding to the long-run neutrality of monetary policy. Traded-sector productivity gains cause an impact appreciation in Asian developing countries and lead to persistent appreciation in non-Asian developing countries, whereas the shocks induce long-run depreciation in developed countries, in line with the results in the first essay.The third essay combines the four panels of countries into a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model to examine how real exchange rates and key macroeconomic variables respond to an oil price shock, a US monetary policy shock and simultaneous shocks to productivity in four large Asian emerging economies. Using a sign restricted impulse response approach, we find that an oil price shock causes a depreciation of the US dollar as well as economic recession and excessive inflation in the global economy. The way in which monetary policy deals with the shock matters for the long-run level of economic activity. An unexpected US monetary tightening causes an appreciation of the US dollar and a fall in real GDP and inflation over the long run. The monetary policy reaction to this change seems to be stronger in developing countries than in developed countries. Simultaneous shocks to traded-sector productivity in China, India, Korea and Indonesia induce a rise in real GDP and currency appreciation in these four countries. Meanwhile, many Asian countries benefit from the shocks with higher productivity and GDP. The value of their currency is likely to appreciate.
The exchange rate is a crucial variable linking a nation's domestic economy to the international market. Thus choice of an exchange rate regime is a central component in the economic policy of developing countries and a key factor affecting economic growth. Historically, most developing nations have employed strict exchange rate controls and heavy protection of domestic industry-policies now thought to be at odds with sustainable and desirable rates of economic growth. By contrast, many East Asian nations maintained exchange rate regimes designed to achieve an attractive climate for exports and an "outer-oriented" development strategy. The result has been rapid and consistent economic growth over the past few decades. Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries explores the impact of such diverse exchange control regimes in both historical and regional contexts, focusing particular attention on East Asia. This comprehensive, carefully researched volume will surely become a standard reference for scholars and policymakers.
We show that the response of firm-level investment to real exchange rate movements varies depending on the production structure of the economy. Firms in advanced economies and in emerging Asia increase investment when the domestic currency weakens, in line with the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. However, in other emerging market and developing economies, as well as some advanced economies with a low degree of structural economic complexity, corporate investment increases when the domestic currency strengthens. This result is consistent with Diaz Alejandro (1963)—in economies where capital goods are mostly imported, a stronger real exchange rate reduces investment costs for domestic firms.
"This book greatly enhances our understanding of the behavior of real exchange rates. It provides an elegant model based on a solid theoretical foundation that links real exchange rates to their fundamental economic determinants and takes proper account of stock and flow considerations. The authors provide a masterful account of how changes in productivity and thrift affect the real exchange rate, and show that the long-run impact depends crucially on whether the change reflects the former fundamental (investment) or the latter (consumption). The empirical implementation uses state-of-the-art cointegration and error correction methodologies that are eminently well suited to capture the short-run adjustment of the real exchange rate to its medium- to long-run equilibrium value. The empirical results are extremely encouraging, as the economic fundamentals identified by the authors can explain a substantial part of the movement in the real exchange rate of a number of countries."--Peter Clark, International Monetary Fund
Serven examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country-time series data set. He builds a GARCH-based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative impact on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. The impact of uncertainty is not uniform, however. There is some evidence of threshold effects, so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level. In addition, the negative impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems.
Although theory suggests that the real exchange rate should depreciate after a credible trade liberalization but could appreciate temporarily with a noncredible one, little empirical evidence exists. Unlike existing studies that use either indirect tests or unreliable openness measures, this paper uses an event study based on carefully documented trade liberalization in 45 countries. The result shows that real exchange rates depreciate after countries open their economies to trade. In countries with multiple liberalization episodes, however, real exchange rates appreciate during early episodes, suggesting that partial or noncredible trade liberalizations are associated with real appreciation.
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The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and the price level in a sample of 33 developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations help to determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. Anticipated exchange rate depreciation, through the supply channel, has limited effects on output growth and inflation. Unanticipated currency fluctuations appear more significant, with varying effects on output growth and price inflation across developing countries.
Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.