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Traces the evolution of popular theories of stock market behavior, showing how they have become widely accepted over time and clarifying some of those them.
With a new Afterword on the current state of the stock market, the ongoing debate over the "new economy," and the larger implications of "irrational exuberance." In this controversial, hard-hitting account of today's explosive market, Robert J. Shiller, a leading expert on market volatility, evokes Alan Greenspan's infamous 1996 reference, "irrational exuberance," to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. Shiller's unconventional yet persuasive argument credits an unprecedented confluence of events with driving stocks to uncharted heights, and he analyzes the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind these levels of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. Now more relevant than ever, this analysis is both chilling and convincing-a must-read for the individual investor, the policy maker, and the investment professional.
Generation X's most respected economic writer refutes the myths and stereotypes of her generation. CNN Financial News Network's Meredith Bagby--author of THE ANNUAL REPORT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA--examines the ways in which her generation, against the odds, is steering our economy in a new direction.
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Why the irrational exuberance of investors hasn't disappeared since the financial crisis In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008–9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets—and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity—and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.
"BusinessWeek's" chief economist calls for a new era of aggressive growth to combat the growing economic pessimism in America.
The True History, and Dangerous Myths, of the Modern Stock Market. The stock market is big news now, influencing every aspect of the modern economy. Accepted wisdom has it that the market will provide retirement security for anyone willing to diligently save and invest. Yet many people can remember a time when the stock market was little more than a primitive insiders' game, viewed by most Americans with skepticism and suspicion. In Toward Rational Exuberance, B. Mark Smith, a professional stock trader with two decades of practical experience, tells the fascinating story of how this stunning transformation occurred. Smith traces the evolution of popular theories of stock market behavior, showing how they have become widely accepted over time. He also clarifies some of these theories -- such as the notion that the market is often susceptible to speculative "bubbles" that will inevitably burst -- and explains how they are based on faulty interpretations of market history. The central thesis of Toward Rational Exuberance is that the modern stock market is the product of a dynamic evolutionary process; it cannot be predicted by extrapolating arbitrary historical standards into the future. It is only by understanding the way the modern market has been created that today's investor can begin to understand the market itself.
Rational Exuberance for Renewable Energy is a beyond-the-hype account of the underlying issues that encourage or plague widespread dissemination of renewable energy (RE) technologies. Renewable energy operates in the real world, and it cannot be assumed that the conventional theories and incentive structures of economics and business do not apply. The author argues that grants and subsidies could be provided to support research, development and technology improvement efforts, but should not be employed as an instrument of state policy to intervene in specific markets. It is important to recognize that although investors often demonstrate an appetite for market risk, they find technology risks and policy uncertainty much less appealing. Rational Exuberance for Renewable Energy blends classical economic theory with the everyday realities of the RE industry to identify incentive structures contributing to the success – or otherwise – of project implementation involving renewable sources and appropriate technologies. The book is a compilation of articles that analyze individual RE technologies, and offer multiple perspectives of the RE industry and markets. Rational Exuberance for Renewable Energy is intended for policy makers, advanced students of energy economics and sustainable development, and for potential mainstream investors.