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Dr. Nektarios examines the principles and criteria under lying public pension programs and assesses the effect of these programs on general economic growth. He begins by discussing the economic rationale of public pensions, then analyzes the influence of economic and demographic variables on the cost of a pension program and the effects of public pension systems on aggregate levels of income and capital stock. Suggesting that Feldstein's social security wealth(SSW) variable overestimates the amount of wealth generated by public pensions, Dr. Nektarios constructs a new SSW variable and uses it to estimate the impact of the u.s. Old Age and Survivors Insurance(OASI) program on capital formation and economic growth in the U.S. economy. The results of his econometric analysis suggest that operation of the OASI program has reduced capital formation by 10to 14 percent.
This book contains material that I have presented in seminars at the Universities of Bochum, Mannheim, Munich, Salerno, and Southern California at Los Angeles, the Institute for Advanced Studies in Vienna, the Max-Planck-Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, and on various international meetings and conferences. In preparing and revising the material I have benefited from comments, discussions, and advice from several colleagues. I had particularly close and friendly collaboration with Alexander Kemnitz and Robert von Weizsicker to whom I am very grateful. I am also grateful to Michele Boldrin, Axel Borsch-Supan, Friedrich Breyer, Karen Feist, Tullio Jappelli, Leo Kaas, Marco Pagano, Gerhard Schwooiauer, Carl Christian von Weizsacker, and Wolfgang Wiegard for their comments and suggestions. Finally, I would like to thank the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft for financial support. Mannheim, January 2002 Berthold U. Wigger Contents 1. Introduction ... 1 2. Public Pensions and Economic Growth: The Basic Framework . . 5 2. 1. The Analytical Elements 7 2. 1. 1. The Individuals 7 2. 1. 2. The Firms 10 2. 1. 3. The Public Pension Program 11 2. 1. 4. The Competitive Equilibrium 12 2. 2. Productivity Growth 13 2. 3. Allocative Efficiency 19 2. 4. Public Pension Reform 25 Appendix 2 ... 30 3. The Allocative Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Endogenous Growth Economies 33 3. 1. Investment Externalities, Intergenerational Transfers, and Pareto-improvements ... 35 Contents x 3. 1. 1. A Subsidy to Private Savings 35 3. 1. 2. A Pareto-Improving Policy 38 3. 2.
The Chilean pension reform of 1981, in which Chile moved from an unfunded to a funded scheme, is considered to have contributed to this country’s excellent economic performance since the mid-1980s. The paper highlights the theoretical underpinnings of the claimed economic effects and presents empirical data and preliminary econometric testing of the conjectured growth, capital formation, and saving effects. The empirical evidence is consistent with most of the claims. In particular, the direct impact of financial market development on private saving is found to be negative, which underscores the importance of sound fiscal policy and public saving to support the transition.
First published in 1998, this volume was developed as part of the Stockholm Initiative and sets out to assess the situation of providing for retirement and pensions. In the wake of intense debate over pay-as-you-go pensions, Lawrence Thomson for the most part leaves social and cultural issues for subsequent analysis, instead examining the economic
The paper explores the macroeconomic effects of three public pension reforms, namely an increase in retirement age, a reduction in benefits and an increase in contribution rates. Using a five-region version of the IMF‘s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), we find that public pension reforms can have a positive effect on growth in both the short run, propelled by rising consumption, and in the long run, due to lower government debt crowding in higher investment. We also find that a reform action undertaken cooperatively by all regions results in larger output effects, reflecting stronger capital accumulation due to higher world savings. An increase in the retirement age reform yields the strongest impact in the short run, due to the demand effects of higher labor income and in the long run because of supply effects.