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Dr. Nektarios examines the principles and criteria under lying public pension programs and assesses the effect of these programs on general economic growth. He begins by discussing the economic rationale of public pensions, then analyzes the influence of economic and demographic variables on the cost of a pension program and the effects of public pension systems on aggregate levels of income and capital stock. Suggesting that Feldstein's social security wealth(SSW) variable overestimates the amount of wealth generated by public pensions, Dr. Nektarios constructs a new SSW variable and uses it to estimate the impact of the u.s. Old Age and Survivors Insurance(OASI) program on capital formation and economic growth in the U.S. economy. The results of his econometric analysis suggest that operation of the OASI program has reduced capital formation by 10to 14 percent.
Pension reform is high on the policy agenda of many advanced and emerging market economies. In advanced economies the challenge is generally to contain future increases in public pension spending as the population ages. In emerging market economies, the challenges are often different. Where pension coverage is extensive, the issues are similar to those in advanced economies. Where pension coverage is low, the key challenge will be to expand coverage in a fiscally sustainable manner. This volume examines the outlook for public pension spending over the coming decades and the options for reform in 52 advanced and emerging market economies.
Chile’s pension system came under close scrutiny in recent years. This paper takes stock of the adequacy of the system and highlights its challenges. Chile’s defined contribution system was quite influential when introduced, and was taken as an example by other countries. However, it is now delivering low replacement rates relative to OECD peers, as its parameters did not adapt over time to changing demographics and global returns, while informality persists in the labor market. In the absence of reforms, the system’s inability to deliver adequate outcomes for a large share of participants will continue to magnify, as demographic trends and low global interest rates will continue to reduce replacement rates. In addition, recent legislation allowing for pension savings withdrawals to counter the effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, is projected to further reduce replacement rates and increase fiscal costs. A substantial improvement in replacement rates is feasible, via a reform that raises contribution rates and the retirement age, coupled with policies that increases workers’ contribution density.
This fourth volume in the series of Nobel laureate James Tobin's classic papers represents his work since 1980. This fourth volume in the series of Nobel laureate James Tobin's classic papers represents his work since 1980. Both national and international views are intermingled among the 36 chapters on macroeconomics and fiscal policy, savings, stabilization policy, international coordination of macroeconomic policy, monetary policy, and exchange rates. Several tributes to colleagues--including Walter Heller and Seymour Harris--round out the collection.