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Investigates the nature and consequences of the relationship between external imbalances and public finances and focusses on the role that fiscal policy can play in addressing and correcting existing and emerging external imbalances in the context of the global financial crisis.
We estimate a panel VAR model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries using quarterly data for the period 1999-2016. Our analysis suggests that fiscal spillovers are significant and tend to be larger for countries with close trade and financial links as well, as for fiscal shocks originating from larger countries. The current account appears to be the main channel of transmission, although strong trade integration among countries in the euro area and spillback effects tend to zero-out the net trade impact in some cases. A subsample analysis shows that the effects of fiscal policy have changed over time, with larger estimated domestic multipliers and spillovers between 2011 and 2014.
This volume presents a selection of contributions to the XXIV Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar on “Public debt, global governance and economic dynamism”. For the past 23 years, the Seminar has provided an ideal opportunity to meet and discuss the most topical issues in economic research. The quality of the scientific contributions and ensuing debates has consistently been outstanding owing to the participation of leading experts, and the most recent Seminar was no exception. The Seminar was held against the backdrop of high levels of public debt, especially in Europe, combined with very low growth in productivity. Furthermore, markets have been dominated by financial instability, raising the question of whether this is the result of the high debt levels or insufficient economic dynamism. Among the topics covered in this book are the economic challenges and growth policies in the United States; issues relating to the G20, global governance and regional integration; EU governance, growth and the Eurozone crisis; and EMU policy and public debt. Individual contributions also address the impact of labor market reforms, the need for sectoral rebalancing in the Euro area, fiscal multipliers and public debt dynamics, and the effects of fiscal shocks in Italy. The book concludes with a contribution on policy recommendations.
Klaas, who is with the monetary and economic policy department De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, explores the potential effects of fiscal policy on financial markets in the Union, taking into account the gradual liberalization of capital movements throughout Western Europe and the institutional framework of the European monetary system. He takes a new approach to the impact of budget deficits on interest rates, especially in relation to international financial integration. He concludes that budget deficits since the early 1970s have raised interest rates and recommends balanced budgets to keep money cheap. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Upholding the EU fiscal rules at the elevated public debt level due to the Corona crisis would trigger a phase of long-standing austerity in the euro area. In this study, major proposals for reforms are reviewed, with a critical focus on the expenditure rule, which is central in many think-tanks' and academic researchers' advice. A different reform based on a fiscal analogue to the well-known Taylor-rule for monetary policy is designed here. It is argued that under a low-interest environment growth rates exceed interest rates, a fact not compatible with the present ruleset and with far-reaching consequences. This requires redefining debt sustainability. The proposal chooses as the operational variable for fiscal policy primary balances rather than structural balances. The anchor for fiscal stability, until know the 60% cap on public debt, should be replaced by a cap on the interest payments on public debt at roughly 3% of GDP. This allows higher fiscal space for investment and innovations. The fact that the interest rate burden of all Member States in the euro area stands at the lowest level ever experienced, although the debt level is at an all-time high, clarifies that the focus on the debt ratio is misleading. Change could be possible in the secondary law of the EU without change of the Treaties.
This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.