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The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE)-have laid out a path to a common market by 2007 and monetary union by 2010, based on economic convergence. To monitor convergence and support economic and monetary policy, comparable economic data for member countries and data for the region as a whole will be essential. What is the most efficient way to produce these data? The authors survey the statistical institutions in the GCC countries and present the case for creating "Gulfstat"-a regional statistical agency to operate within a "Gulf States System of Statistics." Valuable lessons can be learned from regional statistical organization in Africa and the European Union-Afristat and Eurostat.
It remains open to question whether or not the unfolding global economic slowdown will aid or abet the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) monetary union plans. In fact there are cogent arguments to suppose it could do either. On the one hand, the fate of the Icelandic Krona and the sharp fall of Sterling suggest that staying outside of a monetary union (MU) can be costly and by default Eurozone membership has thus far acted as a safety net. Yet the uncertainty brought about by the credit crunch and ensuing liquidity crisis has resulted in a precipitous fall in both the demand for and price of oil. So, on the other hand, it is now increasingly hard for GCC governments to determine their own revenue streams let alone those of their neighbors. Therefore, their ability to meet and monitor MU convergence targets between now and 2010 will now be that much harder to achieve. The following country by country cost-benefit analysis provides some initial guidance on the country-specific factors that may well influence decisions on whether or not a given country ultimately decides to join the MU. Despite the fact that as this paper goes to press, four of the six GCC states still officially intend to enter into a MU as scheduled next year; it is entirely possible that the launch date may be deferred. It is clear that this ambitious integration project is more than a pipe dream with concrete steps taken such as the launch of a GCC customs union in 2003 and a common market in 2008. Despite all six states signing up to the GCC Economic Agreement of 2001, which clearly set out the roadmap towards a single currency by 2010, Oman’s decision to opt out (citing ‘a lack of progress’ in 2006), the UAE’s concerns over the location of the central bank and Kuwait’s move away from the collective dollar peg (in order to tackle ‘imported inflation’ in 2007) can only be viewed as setbacks. However, these setbacks are not insurmountable, as shown by several European Union countries, notably the UK and Sweden, which decided not to go along with the European Monetary Union (EMU) process.
At a time of momentous shifts in the balance of world economic forces epitomized by the current oil price boom, the weakening US dollar and the global credit crunch; the meteoric rise of the Arabian peninsula cannot be understated. Neither, therefore, can their planned monetary union. As key suppliers of the worlds oil and gas the Gulf states have
The six member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)--Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates--have made important progress toward economic and financial integration, with the aim of establishing an economic and monetary union. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the economic performance and policies of the GCC countries during 1990-2002. Drawing on the lessons from the experience of selected currency and monetary unions in Africa, Europe, and the Caribbean, it assesses the potential costs and benefits of a common currency for GCC countries and also reviews the options for implementing a monetary union among these countries.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Possessing a significant share of the world's oil and gas reserves and including some of the world's fastest growing economies, the GCC is a significant regional grouping. As with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Council has made significant progress towards economic integration. Seeking to draw out lessons applicable to ASEAN, this report looks at the structure and evolution of the GCC. This includes the context within which the Council was established, its rationale, and economic importance. It then follows the organization's development over time, paying particular importance to its progress from Customs Union and Common Market towards Monetary Union. The report then sets out the key challenges ahead for the Council, and concludes by highlighting the structural, organizational, and political lessons that resonate with ASEAN and its membership.
East Asian countries were notably uninterested in regional monetary integration until the late 1990's, when the Asian financial crisis revealed the fragility of the region's exchange rate arrangements and highlighted the need for a stronger regional financial architecture. Since then, the countries of East Asia have begun taking steps to explore monetary and financial cooperation, establishing such initiatives as regular consultations among finance ministers and central bank governors and the pooling of foreign exchange reserves. In this book Ulrich Volz investigates the prospects for monetary cooperation and integration in East Asia, using state-of-the-art theoretical and empirical tools to analyze the most promising policy options. --
Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.
Monetary and Financial Integration in West Africa details the progress, challenges faced, and potential of the project intended to create a West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) between Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. Given the trend towards regionalization of economic ties across the world, especially after the successful launch of the euro, a detailed analysis of the WAMZ is needed. As this is the first book on monetary and financial integration in Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Nigeria and Sierra Leone, it is an essential read for anyone interested in economic development in West Africa, and indeed in Africa as a whole. This book is extremely well-researched, with detail on virtually all aspects of economic integration in the region; with issues ranging from the institutional details of integration, trade and financial market integration, to progress on convergence of macroeconomic fundamentals to the required payments system infrastructure. The book deploys solid empirical facts and sophisticated analyses to thoroughly defend its assertions. This collection is a valuable contribution and an excellent companion book for monetary economics or international economics classes as well as African development literature. It will provide students and researchers with an exciting chance to apply concepts of, for example, optimum currency areas, central bank structure or monetary policy approaches, to a real-world case of potential monetary union. Dr. Temitope W. Oshikoya and his collaborators have written the authoritative book on the subject of monetary union in the West African Monetary Zone. As is evident in the level of detail of the book, Dr. Oshikoya brings rich field experience from his role as Director General and CEO of the West African Monetary Institute. This book will be of interest to postgraduates and researchers in development economics; as well as policymakers, monetary authorities and development practitioners.
This book explores a central issue of the world economy today: the role of regional integration for economic development and global governance. The importance of this issue comes from the fact that the globalisation process that we have been experiencing in recent decades is also a process of open regionalism. [¿] To what extent does this process contribute to development? The reader will find many interesting answers to this question in the book, [which] is an outstanding contribution to this debate. I welcome its publication and look forward to its influence on global debates on the relations between regional integration, development and global governance.' - From the foreword by José Antonio Ocampo, Columbia University, US The contributors expertly provide a comparative perspective on regional integration in different regions of the world while at the same time analysing the various facets of integration, relating to trade, FDI, finance and monetary policies. They provide a comprehensive treatment of the subject and offer new perspectives on the potential developmental effects of regional integration and the implications of regional integration for global economic governance. Whilst highlighting and illustrating the potential benefits deriving from regional economic integration, the book also stresses the problems and challenges regional integration processes are usually confronted with.