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Economic prospects for the countries of the Middle East and North Africa are assessed in light of the changing world economy, increasing integration of trade and financial markets, greater needs for educated labour, and growing concerns about poverty and environmental degradation. Cross-country papers on thematic topics by international scholars are presented. The need for major economic reforms is emphasized if the region is to use greater integration in the world economy as the basis for generating growth and jobs and reducing poverty.
Economic prospects for the countries of the Middle East and North Africa are assessed in light of the changing world economy, increasing integration of trade and financial markets, greater needs for educated labour, and growing concerns about poverty and environmental degradation. Cross-country papers on thematic topics by international scholars are presented. The need for major economic reforms is emphasized if the region is to use greater integration in the world economy as the basis for generating growth and jobs and reducing poverty.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is a large, complex, and diverse region, which faces a wide range of economic issues. The MENA group includes Algeria, Bahrain, Cyprus, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.The purpose of this book is not to provide a country-by-country study, but rather to deal with general economic themes found in Arab MENA and Israel, such as problems associated with growth and structural change; the role of State-intervention in country-specific local markets; labor market imperfections driven by gender bias; technology gaps and endogenous growth; capital market development in a restricted financial model based on religious constraints; savings and investment behaviour in a model of state subsidization and intervention designed to control local development; and the role of the state in constraining private sector activity. Data sources used in this second edition include country-specific data, the World Bank, the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.The new material in this second edition includes a discussion of the impending and inevitable leadership changes which will occur throughout Arab MENA over the next decades. The evidence to support this evaluation is based on the current lack of transparent markets; the lack of inclusive macro policies, the impact of distortionary micro economic policies across all sectors; and the impact of anti-globalization and xenophobia on innovation. Old chapters are revised with updated data, a discussion of the role of the 'State' and 'Oligarchies' in the economies of most of the MENA countries, an in-depth exploration of the investment in human capital and growth and an identification of the most important binding constraints to economic development in Arab MENA and Israel.This book serves as both a textbook and a summary of the very large literature on MENA. It examines the economic realities of the region and compares them across the MENA economies. It should be stressed that this book is not about the latest political debate on who did what to whom in the Middle East or in North Africa. The focus is on economics, not political economics.
First Published in 2005. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
Overconfident: How Economic and Health Fault Lines Left the Middle East and North Africa Ill-Prepared to Face COVID This report examines the region’s economic prospects in 2021, forecasting that the recovery will be both tenuous and uneven as per capita GDP level stays below pre-pandemic levels. COVID-19 was a stress-test for the region’s public health systems, which were already overwhelmed even before the pandemic. Indeed, a decade of lackluster economic reforms left a legacy of large public sectors and high public debt that effectively crowded out investments in social services such as public health. This edition points out that the region’s health systems were not only ill-prepared for the pandemic, but suffered from over-confidence, as authorities painted an overly optimistic picture in self-assessments of health system preparedness. Going forward, governments must improve data transparency for public health and undertake reforms to remedy historical underinvestment in public health systems.
Using cases on individual countries, Economic Development in the Middle East and North Africa offers diverse theoretical and empirical evidence on a variety of issues facing policymakers, investors, and other stakeholders in the region.
"After a sharp fall in 2017, economic growth in MENA is projected to rebound to 3.1 percent in 2018, thanks to the positive global outlook, oil prices stabilizing at relatively higher levels, stabilization policies and reforms, and recovery and reconstruction as conflicts recede. The outlook for MENA remains positive, and the growth rebound is expected to gain momentum over the next two years, exceeding 3 percent in 2020. While stabilization policies have helped economies adjust in recent years, .a second phase of reforms is needed should be transformative if the region is to reach its potential and create jobs for hundred million young people who will enter the labor market in coming decades. In this report, we explore the role that public-private partnerships can play. not only in providing an alternative source of financing but in helping change the role of the state from the main provider of employment to an enabler of private sector activity. Studies have shown that the gap between MENA economies and fast-growing ones is the performance of the services sector. The disruptive technology offers new opportunities for boosting private-sector-led growth through enhancement of high-tech jobs in the services sector. The report argues that combining the region's fast-growing pool of university graduates and a heavy penetration of social media and smartphone, could serve as the foundation for a digital sector that could create much-needed private sector jobs for the youth over the next decade."
The Middle East and North Africa economies face an uncertain recovery. The war in Ukraine presents significant challenges to the global economy and the MENA region. Inflationary pressures brought about by the pandemic are likely to be further exacerbated by the conflict. The potential for rising food prices is even higher, which is likely to hurt the wallets of the poor and vulnerable in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cast a shadow. As the latest variant sweeps over the region, countries grapple with a host of problems depending on initial conditions and policy priorities. The region, like the rest of the world, is not out of the woods yet. Vaccinations remain the effective path out of the pandemic, leading to lower hospitalizations and death rates. Testing helps curb the spread. During times of uncertainty, it is important to not be overconfident about the region’s growth prospects. Growth forecasts serve as a significant signpost for policymakers to chart a path forward. Over the last decade, growth forecasts in the MENA region have often been inaccurate and overly optimistic, which can lead to economic contractions down the road due to ebullient borrowing. There is considerable room for the region to improve its forecasts that are largely hindered by opaque data systems, growth volatility and conflict. The MENA region lags considerably in the timely production of credible statistics. A key finding of the report is that the best way to improve forecasters is to provide forecasters with as much good quality information as possible.
Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA’s economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks—most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.