Published: 2020
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This outlook covers the period from 2020 to 2030 and reflects on current agricultural and trade policies. Projections are based on the latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook updated with the most recent global macroeconomic and market data. According to macroeconomic assumptions, the global economy will rebound in 2021-2022 and level off at an annual average growth of 3% by 2030. The EU economy should recover to its pre-COVID-19 level by 2023. The oil price, after bottoming out at USD 41/bbl in 2020, is due to reach USD 83/bbl in 2030. A moderate appreciation of the euro is expected in the medium term, reaching USD 1.16/EUR by 2030. These assumptions are based on average economic trends, so they presume market developments to be relatively smooth. However, in reality markets tend to be much more volatile. Recent free trade agreements (FTAs) are included if they have already been implemented (with Ukraine, Japan, Vietnam and Canada), while the ones only concluded are not (with Mercosur and the updated FTA with Mexico). Regarding the future relationship between the EU-27 and the UK, there is a purely technical assumption that duty-free/quota-free trading relations will continue. As macroeconomic projections and crop yield expectations are by nature surrounded by uncertainty, a systemic uncertainty analysis has been carried out, which enables us to illustrate possible developments caused by the uncertain conditions in the economy and agricultural markets. This report presents possible price ranges around the expected baseline. In addition, to address the implications of the uncertainties surrounding the post-pandemic recovery, specific scenarios look at alternative COVID-19 recovery pathways. Finally, a scenario about the use of food losses and food waste for insect farming to produce protein meal and oil for aquaculture is analysed and presented in the report.