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This economic and regulatory analysis meets the requirements of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which calls for an evaluation of the potential economic impacts of the gasoline rationing contingency plan. In addition, this analysis is intended to satisfy the requirements of the President's Executive Order No. 12044 of March 23, 1978, regarding government regulations, and provides an inflationary impact statement for the proposed rationing plan. To perform the analysis of rationing program impacts on the total national economy, three separate projections were required. First, a projection is made of the ''normal'' U.S. economy for a future period--the last quarter of 1980 through the third quarter of 1981 in this analysis. Second, a projection is made of the impacts which a petroleum supply interruption would have on the U.S. economy during this future period, assuming that DOE's standby allocation and price control regulations were implemented for crude oil and products. Third, and most significant, an estimate is made of the incremental impacts of the gasoline rationing program on this already-perturbed future U.S. economy.
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