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In October 2004, the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN) held its first annual research conference. Its theme was "Business Cycles and Growth in Europe". The thirteen papers presented are collected here in revised form in two volumes as Economic Paper number 227, 1/2 and 2/2. Some of the contributions are followed by comments made by the discussants.
Recoge: 1. Introduction - 2. Characterising migration in the EU - 3. Policy approaches - 4. Conclusions - 5. Annex - 6. References.
Recoge: 1. Introduction. - 2. Stylised facts about labour productivity growth and its driving forces. - 3. Evaluation of the different approaches for making long-run productivity projections. - 4. Overview of the methodology adopted for the present projections. - 5. Main results of baseline projections. - 6. Sensitive tests on productivity and GDP per capita. - 7. Concluding remarks. - 8. Annexes.
Recoge: 1. Introduction - 2.A simple model - 3. The Nash equilibrium - 4. Systematic misperceptions on the side of the fiscal authority - 5. Stackelberg equilibrium - 6. Conclusions.
Any meaningful analysis of cyclical developments, of medium term growth prospects or of the stance of fiscal and monetary policies are all predicated on either an implicit or explicit assumption concerning the rate of potential output growth. Given the importance of the concept, the measurement of potential output is the subject of contentious and sustained research interest. All the available methods have "pros" and "cons" and none can unequivocally be declared better than the alternatives in all cases. Thus, what matters is to have a method adapted to the problem under analysis, with well defined limits and, in international comparisons, one that deals identically with all countries. This is the approach adopted in the present paper where it is stated clearly that the objective is to produce an economics based, production function, method which can be used for operational EU policy surveillance purposes.
Recoge: Executive symmary. 1. A working definition of spillover. - Part 1: Theory. - 2. A working definition of spillover. - Part 2: Empirical findings. - 3. Budgetary spillover and short-term interest rates. - 4. Budgetary spillover and long-term interest rates. - 5. Budgetary stabilisation and the level of public debt. - 6. Spillover form economic reform. - 7. Macroeconomic and welfare effects of structural and budgetary policies: spillover in the MSG3 model. - Part 3: conclusions. - 8. Summary, recommendations and future research. - Appendix. - References.