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When John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen's early work in econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he was expressing a widely held view of a new discipline. However, even after half a century of practical work and theorizing by some of the most accomplished social scientists, Keynes' comments are still repeated today. This book assesses the foundations and development of econometrics and sets out a basis for the reconstruction of the foundations of econometric inference by examining the various interpretations of probability theory which underlie econometrics. Keuzenkamp claims that the probabilistic foundations of econometrics are weak, and although econometric inferences may yield interesting knowledge, claims to be able to falsify or verify economic theories are unwarranted. Methodological falsificationism in econometrics is an illusion. Instead, it is argued, econometrics should locate itself in the tradition of positivism.
Probability, Statistics and Econometrics provides a concise, yet rigorous, treatment of the field that is suitable for graduate students studying econometrics, very advanced undergraduate students, and researchers seeking to extend their knowledge of the trinity of fields that use quantitative data in economic decision-making. The book covers much of the groundwork for probability and inference before proceeding to core topics in econometrics. Authored by one of the leading econometricians in the field, it is a unique and valuable addition to the current repertoire of econometrics textbooks and reference books. - Synthesizes three substantial areas of research, ensuring success in a subject matter than can be challenging to newcomers - Focused and modern coverage that provides relevant examples from economics and finance - Contains some modern frontier material, including bootstrap and lasso methods not treated in similar-level books - Collects the necessary material for first semester Economics PhD students into a single text
This empirical research methods course enables informed implementation of statistical procedures, giving rise to trustworthy evidence.
Notions of probability and uncertainty have been increasingly prominant in modern economics. This book considers the philosophical and practical difficulties inherent in integrating these concepts into realistic economic situations. It outlines and evaluates the major developments, indicating where further work is needed. This book addresses: * probability, utility and rationality within current economic thought and practice * concepts of ignorance and indeterminancy * experimental economics * econometrics, with particular reference inference and estimation.
The standard introductory texts to mathematical statistics leave the Bayesian approach to be taught later in advanced topics courses-giving students the impression that Bayesian statistics provide but a few techniques appropriate in only special circumstances. Nothing could be further from the truth, argues Dale Poirier, who has developed a course for teaching comparatively both the classical and the Bayesian approaches to econometrics. Poirier's text provides a thoroughly modern, self-contained, comprehensive, and accessible treatment of the probability and statistical foundations of econometrics with special emphasis on the linear regression model. Written primarily for advanced undergraduate and graduate students who are pursuing research careers in economics, Intermediate Statistics and Econometrics offers a broad perspective, bringing together a great deal of diverse material. Its comparative approach, emphasis on regression and prediction, and numerous exercises and references provide a solid foundation for subsequent courses in econometrics and will prove a valuable resource to many nonspecialists who want to update their quantitative skills. The introduction closes with an example of a real-world data set-the Challengerspace shuttle disaster-that motivates much of the text's theoretical discussion. The ten chapters that follow cover basic concepts, special distributions, distributions of functions of random variables, sampling theory, estimation, hypothesis testing, prediction, and the linear regression model. Appendixes contain a review of matrix algebra, computation, and statistical tables.
Probability theory
Taken literally, the title "All of Statistics" is an exaggeration. But in spirit, the title is apt, as the book does cover a much broader range of topics than a typical introductory book on mathematical statistics. This book is for people who want to learn probability and statistics quickly. It is suitable for graduate or advanced undergraduate students in computer science, mathematics, statistics, and related disciplines. The book includes modern topics like non-parametric curve estimation, bootstrapping, and classification, topics that are usually relegated to follow-up courses. The reader is presumed to know calculus and a little linear algebra. No previous knowledge of probability and statistics is required. Statistics, data mining, and machine learning are all concerned with collecting and analysing data.
Tools to improve decision making in an imperfect world This publication provides readers with a thorough understanding of Bayesian analysis that is grounded in the theory of inference and optimal decision making. Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics provides readers with state-of-the-art simulation methods and models that are used to solve complex real-world problems. Armed with a strong foundation in both theory and practical problem-solving tools, readers discover how to optimize decision making when faced with problems that involve limited or imperfect data. The book begins by examining the theoretical and mathematical foundations of Bayesian statistics to help readers understand how and why it is used in problem solving. The author then describes how modern simulation methods make Bayesian approaches practical using widely available mathematical applications software. In addition, the author details how models can be applied to specific problems, including: * Linear models and policy choices * Modeling with latent variables and missing data * Time series models and prediction * Comparison and evaluation of models The publication has been developed and fine- tuned through a decade of classroom experience, and readers will find the author's approach very engaging and accessible. There are nearly 200 examples and exercises to help readers see how effective use of Bayesian statistics enables them to make optimal decisions. MATLAB? and R computer programs are integrated throughout the book. An accompanying Web site provides readers with computer code for many examples and datasets. This publication is tailored for research professionals who use econometrics and similar statistical methods in their work. With its emphasis on practical problem solving and extensive use of examples and exercises, this is also an excellent textbook for graduate-level students in a broad range of fields, including economics, statistics, the social sciences, business, and public policy.
Written by one of the best-known probabilists in the world this text offers a clear and modern presentation of modern probability theory and an exposition of the interplay between the properties of metric spaces and those of probability measures. This text is the first at this level to include discussions of the subadditive ergodic theorems, metrics for convergence in laws and the Borel isomorphism theory. The proofs for the theorems are consistently brief and clear and each chapter concludes with a set of historical notes and references. This book should be of interest to students taking degree courses in real analysis and/or probability theory.
Providing an introduction to mathematical analysis as it applies to economic theory and econometrics, this book bridges the gap that has separated the teaching of basic mathematics for economics and the increasingly advanced mathematics demanded in economics research today. Dean Corbae, Maxwell B. Stinchcombe, and Juraj Zeman equip students with the knowledge of real and functional analysis and measure theory they need to read and do research in economic and econometric theory. Unlike other mathematics textbooks for economics, An Introduction to Mathematical Analysis for Economic Theory and Econometrics takes a unified approach to understanding basic and advanced spaces through the application of the Metric Completion Theorem. This is the concept by which, for example, the real numbers complete the rational numbers and measure spaces complete fields of measurable sets. Another of the book's unique features is its concentration on the mathematical foundations of econometrics. To illustrate difficult concepts, the authors use simple examples drawn from economic theory and econometrics. Accessible and rigorous, the book is self-contained, providing proofs of theorems and assuming only an undergraduate background in calculus and linear algebra. Begins with mathematical analysis and economic examples accessible to advanced undergraduates in order to build intuition for more complex analysis used by graduate students and researchers Takes a unified approach to understanding basic and advanced spaces of numbers through application of the Metric Completion Theorem Focuses on examples from econometrics to explain topics in measure theory