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Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner, tackling the question, "What is risk analysis?" Distilling the common principles of many risk dialects into serviceable definitions, it provides a foundation for the practice of risk management and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all disciplines. New in this edition is an expanded risk management emphasis that includes an overview chapter on enterprise risk management and a chapter on decision making under uncertainty designed to help decision makers use the results of risk analysis in practical ways to improve decisions and their outcomes. This book will empower you to enter the world of risk management in your own domain of expertise by providing you with practical, insightful, useful and adaptable knowledge of risk analysis science including risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication. Features: Answers the fundamental question, "What is Risk Analysis?" Presents the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Responds to the continuing evolution of risk science and addresses the language of risk as it continues to evolve Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Includes a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty provides practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis This book is suitable for executives, professionals and students who seek a fundamental understanding of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication. A more detailed examination of this topic, suitable for practitioners from any discipline as well as students and professionals who aspire to become experts in the practice of risk analysis science, is found in Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-47820-6.
In every decision problem there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant changes. The language has been updated and expanded throughout the text and the book features several new areas of expansion including five new chapters. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. Features: Details the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Provides sufficient detail to empower professionals in any discipline to become risk practitioners Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment tools in a new chapter Practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty Practical methods for helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus of a new chapter Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners. Files used in the creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free student version of Palisade Corporation’s Decision Tools Suite software are available with the purchase of this book. A less detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a
What would you do if a law that enabled your investment to operate successfully abroad suddenly changed, and your business could no longer operate profitably there? Imagine exporting goods to a government buyer only to discover after the fact that your home country, or the United Nations, has just imposed an embargo on that country. Managing Country Risk: A Practitioner’s Guide to Effective Cross-Border Risk Analysis explains how to identify and manage the many risks associated with conducting business abroad. Daniel Wagner, an industry expert with decades of battle-tested experience, provides the real-world insight needed to think outside the box and anticipate the impact of change on your business operations. Using case studies and practical examples, it supplies essential information on country risk management and explains how these concepts apply to every day operational examples. Considering the impact of perception on investment decisions, it demonstrates how to put a country risk assessment into practice and explains how to create a framework, select the right tools, and map out a country risk analysis methodology. Appropriate for a wide audience—from individual entrepreneurs and small exporters to multinational corporations—the book provides a solid foundation in the basics of country risk analysis. It facilitates an understanding of the full range of cross-border risks and explains how to manage them. The strategies, concepts, and tools outlined in the book provide you with the understanding needed to help your organization make more-informed decisions about how it does business abroad. Practical examples and case studies provide the real-world insight needed to add value to the risk management processes in your organization and enhance your company’s ability to make a profit.
Building upon the technical and organizational groundwork presented in the first edition, Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Second Edition addresses the many aspects of risk/uncertainty (R/U) process implementation. This comprehensive volume covers four broad aspects of R/U: general concepts, i
More than any other book available, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics introduces the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and analysis, the author leads readers from the fundamental concepts through the theory, applications, and data requirements, sources, and collection. He emphasizes the practical use of the methods presented and carefully examines the limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of each. Case studies that incorporate the techniques discussed offer a practical perspective that helps readers clearly identify and solve problems encountered in practice. If you deal with decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, this book is required reading. The presentation includes more than 300 tables and figures, more than 100 examples, many case studies, and a wealth of end-of-chapter problems. Unlike the classical books on reliability and risk assessment, this book helps you relate underlying concepts to everyday applications and better prepares you to understand and use the methods of risk analysis.
Guides the reader through a risk assessment and shows them the proper tools to be used at the various steps in the process This brand new edition of one of the most authoritative books on risk assessment adds ten new chapters to its pages to keep readers up to date with the changes in the types of risk that individuals, businesses, and governments are being exposed to today. It leads readers through a risk assessment and shows them the proper tools to be used at various steps in the process. The book also provides readers with a toolbox of techniques that can be used to aid them in analyzing conceptual designs, completed designs, procedures, and operational risk. Risk Assessment: Tools, Techniques, and Their Applications, Second Edition includes expanded case studies and real life examples; coverage on risk assessment software like SAPPHIRE and RAVEN; and end-of-chapter questions for students. Chapters progress from the concept of risk, through the simple risk assessment techniques, and into the more complex techniques. In addition to discussing the techniques, this book presents them in a form that the readers can readily adapt to their particular situation. Each chapter, where applicable, presents the technique discussed in that chapter and demonstrates how it is used. Expands on case studies and real world examples, so that the reader can see complete examples that demonstrate how each of the techniques can be used in analyzing a range of scenarios Includes 10 new chapters, including Bayesian and Monte Carlo Analyses; Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Analysis; Threat Assessment Techniques; Cyber Risk Assessment; High Risk Technologies; Enterprise Risk Management Techniques Adds end-of-chapter questions for students, and provides a solutions manual for academic adopters Acts as a practical toolkit that can accompany the practitioner as they perform a risk assessment and allows the reader to identify the right assessment for their situation Presents risk assessment techniques in a form that the readers can readily adapt to their particular situation Risk Assessment: Tools, Techniques, and Their Applications, Second Edition is an important book for professionals that make risk-based decisions for their companies in various industries, including the insurance industry, loss control, forensics, all domains of safety, engineering and technical fields, management science, and decision analysis. It is also an excellent standalone textbook for a risk assessment or a risk management course.