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Although this monograph was written before the pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt in January 2011, it examines the important question as to who might succeed President Hosni Mubarak by analyzing several possible scenarios and what they would mean for U.S. strategic relations with Egypt. The monograph first describes the importance of Egypt in the Middle East region and gives an overview of the U.S.-Egyptian strategic relationship. It then examines the power structure in Egypt to include the presidency, the military, and the ruling party. The monograph next explores various succession scenarios. Although some of the scenarios outlined in this monograph are no longer viable--for example, it is highly unlikely President Mubarak will renege on his recent promise not to run for another presidential term or that Gamal Mubarak will now be a presidential contender--other scenarios remain plausible, particularly given what we see as the more prominent role of the Egyptian military in this fluid political situation. In addition, some of the possible presidential successors that the author mentions have now risen to higher positions in the Egyptian government. He also discusses the sensitive issue of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's most organized opposition group that is opposed to many U.S. policies. He examines a scenario of a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, but notes that this is unlikely to occur unless both the Brotherhood and the Egyptian military split apart.
Although this monograph was written before the pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt in January 2011, it examines the important question as to who might succeed President Hosni Mubarak by analyzing several possible scenarios and what they would mean for U.S. strategic relations with Egypt. The monograph first describes the importance of Egypt in the Middle East region and gives an overview of the U.S.-Egyptian strategic relationship. It then examines the power structure in Egypt to include the presidency, the military, and the ruling party. The monograph next explores various succession scenarios. Although some of the scenarios outlined in this monograph are no longer viable--for example, President Mubarak is now on trial for complicity in the deaths of protesters during the uprising that resulted in his ouster from power--other scenarios remain plausible, particularly given what we see as the more prominent role of the Egyptian military in this fluid political situation. In addition, some of the possible presidential successors that the author mentions have now risen to higher positions in the Egyptian government. The author also discusses the sensitive issue of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's most organized opposition group that is opposed to many U.S. policies. He examines a scenario of a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, but notes that this is unlikely to occur unless both the Brotherhood and the Egyptian military split apart
"The November 2010 People's Assembly elections will be key for assessing the Egyptian authorities' tolerance of free and fair elections, in advance of the critical presidential elections scheduled for 2011. Much stands in the way of voters' ability to express their will at the polls. The longstanding Political Parties Law sets out vague and subjective criteria for forming new parties that allow the government to stop interested groups in their tracks. Since 1981, Egypt has been under the Emergency Law, whose powers security forces used throughout 2010, and especially in the weeks leading up to the November 28 parliamentary elections, to disrupt and prevent gatherings and to arrest individuals solely for exercising their rights to freedom of association, assembly, and expression--freedoms essential to free and fair elections. Authorities particularly targeted the Muslim Brotherhood, arresting more than 1,000 members in the weeks preceding the elections. In 2010, unlike in elections of the past decade, the government drastically limited independent judicial supervision of polling, following constitutional amendments in 2007 that further eroded political rights. The government rejected calls for international observers, terming their presence an intervention in Egypt's domestic affairs, and instead insisted that Egyptian civil society organizations monitor elections. Yet in the past, in advance of the June 1, 2010 elections to the upper house of Parliament, the High Elections Commission rejected 65 percent of the monitoring requests from civil society groups. Four days before the November elections, two coalitions of human rights organizations that submitted over 2,000 requests for monitoring permits had yet to receive any response."--P. [4] of cover.
Why does Islam seem to dominate Egyptian politics, especially when the country's endemic poverty and deep economic inequality would seem to render it promising terrain for a politics of radical redistribution rather than one of religious conservativism? This book argues that the answer lies not in the political unsophistication of voters, the subordination of economic interests to spiritual ones, or the ineptitude of secular and leftist politicians, but in organizational and social factors that shape the opportunities of parties in authoritarian and democratizing systems to reach potential voters. Tracing the performance of Islamists and their rivals in Egyptian elections over the course of almost forty years, this book not only explains why Islamists win elections, but illuminates the possibilities for the emergence in Egypt of the kind of political pluralism that is at the heart of what we expect from democracy.
This book presents the first analytical study of the levels of professionalism of campaigns in the 2012 Egyptian presidential elections. It considers the extent to which the election was professionalised and how far the levels of professionalism impacted the democratisation process of Egypt. It provides the story of the five main campaigns by applying the professionalisation index to analyse their structures (hardware) and strategies (software). The book also evaluates the application of the professionalization index to nascent democracies, and the impact of campaign professionalism on such democracies. The book encourages further studies within similar fragile democratic systems as well as offering campaigners practical guidance when approaching future elections.