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This article proposes a viral diffusion model (like Covid-19 pandemic) in the ordinary differential equations (ODE) and stochastic differential equations (SDE) framework. The classic models based on the logistic map are analyzed, and then a noise term is introduced that models the behavior of the so-called "deniers". This model fairly faithfully reproduces the Italian situation in today’s period. We then move on to local analysis, arriving at an equation of continuity for what concerns the density of the number of infected in an assigned region. We, therefore, prove a Theorem according to which classical logistics is the most catastrophic of predictions. In a realistic scenario, it is necessary to take into account the inevitable fluctuations in the aforementioned density. This implies a fragmentation of the initial cluster (generated by "patient zero") into an N disjoint sub clusters. For very large N, statistical analysis suggests the use of the two-point correlation function (and more generally, n-points). In principle, an estimate of this function makes it possible to determine the evolution of the pandemic. The distribution of the sub clusters could be fractal, exactly as it happens for the distribution of galaxies starting from a homogeneous and isotropic primordial universe, but with random fluctuations in matter density. This is not surprising, since due to the invariance in scale, fractals have a low "computational cost". The idea that pandemics are cyclical processes, that is, they occur with a given periodicity, would therefore remain corroborated. Marcello Colozzo, laureato in Fisica si occupa sin dal 2008 di didattica online di Matematica e Fisica attraverso il sito web Extra Byte dove vengono eseguite "simulazioni" nell'ambiente di calcolo Mathematica. Negli ultimi anni ha pubblicato vari articoli di fisica matematica e collabora con la rivista Elettronica Open Source. Appassionato lettore di narrativa cyberpunk, ha provato ad eseguire una transizione verso lo stato di "scrittore cyber", pubblicando varie antologie di racconti.
Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downloaded at the web site of the Centre for Disease Modeling (www.cdm.yorku.ca).
An Observer Book of the Year A Times Science Book of the Year A New Statesman Book of the Year A Financial Times Science Book of the Year 'Astonishingly bold' Daily Mail 'It is hard to imagine a more timely book ... much of the modern world will make more sense having read it.' The Times We live in a world that's more interconnected than ever before. Our lives are shaped by outbreaks - of disease, of misinformation, even of violence - that appear, spread and fade away with bewildering speed. To understand them, we need to learn the hidden laws that govern them. From 'superspreaders' who might spark a pandemic or bring down a financial system to the social dynamics that make loneliness catch on, The Rules of Contagion offers compelling insights into human behaviour and explains how we can get better at predicting what happens next. Along the way, Adam Kucharski explores how innovations spread through friendship networks, what links computer viruses with folk stories - and why the most useful predictions aren't necessarily the ones that come true. Now revised and updated with content on Covid-19.
This book is about making decisions driven by experience. In this context, a scenario is an observation that comes from the environment, and scenario optimization refers to optimizing decisions over a set of available scenarios. Scenario optimization can be applied across a variety of fields, including machine learning, quantitative finance, control, and identification. This concise, practical book provides readers with an easy access point to make the scenario approach understandable to nonexperts, and offers an overview of various decision frameworks in which the method can be used. It contains numerous examples and diverse applications from a broad range of domains, including systems theory, control, biomedical engineering, economics, and finance. Practitioners can find "easy-to-use recipes," while theoreticians will benefit from a rigorous treatment of the theoretical foundations of the method, making it an excellent starting point for scientists interested in doing research in this field. Introduction to the Scenario Approach will appeal to scientists working in optimization, practitioners working in myriad fields involving decision-making, and anyone interested in data-driven decision-making.
This monograph concisely but thoroughly introduces the reader to the field of mathematical immunology. The book covers first basic principles of formulating a mathematical model, and an outline on data-driven parameter estimation and model selection. The authors then introduce the modeling of experimental and human infections and provide the reader with helpful exercises. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and graduate students in the field of mathematical biology who wish to be concisely introduced into mathematical immunology.
Fractional calculus is a collection of relatively little-known mathematical results concerning generalizations of differentiation and integration to noninteger orders. While these results have been accumulated over centuries in various branches of mathematics, they have until recently found little appreciation or application in physics and other mathematically oriented sciences. This situation is beginning to change, and there are now a growing number of research areas in physics which employ fractional calculus.This volume provides an introduction to fractional calculus for physicists, and collects easily accessible review articles surveying those areas of physics in which applications of fractional calculus have recently become prominent.
The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of disease transmission models. It includes (i) an introduction to the main concepts of compartmental models including models with heterogeneous mixing of individuals and models for vector-transmitted diseases, (ii) a detailed analysis of models for important specific diseases, including tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, influenza, Ebola virus disease, malaria, dengue fever and the Zika virus, (iii) an introduction to more advanced mathematical topics, including age structure, spatial structure, and mobility, and (iv) some challenges and opportunities for the future. There are exercises of varying degrees of difficulty, and projects leading to new research directions. For the benefit of public health professionals whose contact with mathematics may not be recent, there is an appendix covering the necessary mathematical background. There are indications which sections require a strong mathematical background so that the book can be useful for both mathematical modelers and public health professionals.
The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. It includes model building, fitting to data, local and global analysis techniques. Various types of deterministic dynamical models are considered: ordinary differential equation models, delay-differential equation models, difference equation models, age-structured PDE models and diffusion models. It includes various techniques for the computation of the basic reproduction number as well as approaches to the epidemiological interpretation of the reproduction number. MATLAB code is included to facilitate the data fitting and the simulation with age-structured models.
This book presents a compilation of the most recent implementation of artificial intelligence methods for solving different problems generated by the COVID-19. The problems addressed came from different fields and not only from medicine. The information contained in the book explores different areas of machine and deep learning, advanced image processing, computational intelligence, IoT, robotics and automation, optimization, mathematical modeling, neural networks, information technology, big data, data processing, data mining, and likewise. Moreover, the chapters include the theory and methodologies used to provide an overview of applying these tools to the useful contribution to help to face the emerging disaster. The book is primarily intended for researchers, decision makers, practitioners, and readers interested in these subject matters. The book is useful also as rich case studies and project proposals for postgraduate courses in those specializations.
For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches. Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal "forcing," or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to be used to generate theory. In each of the eight chapters, they deal with a specific modeling approach or set of techniques designed to capture a particular biological factor. They illustrate the methodology used with examples from recent research literature on human and infectious disease modeling, showing how such techniques can be used in practice. Diseases considered include BSE, foot-and-mouth, HIV, measles, rubella, smallpox, and West Nile virus, among others. Particular attention is given throughout the book to the development of practical models, useful both as predictive tools and as a means to understand fundamental epidemiological processes. To emphasize this approach, the last chapter is dedicated to modeling and understanding the control of diseases through vaccination, quarantine, or culling. Comprehensive, practical introduction to infectious disease modeling Builds from simple to complex predictive models Models and methodology fully supported by examples drawn from research literature Practical models aid students' understanding of fundamental epidemiological processes For many of the models presented, the authors provide accompanying programs written in Java, C, Fortran, and MATLAB In-depth treatment of role of modeling in understanding disease control