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This book has a strong theoretical focus and is unique in addressing both mortality and fertility over the full span of human history. It examines the demographic transition in the change in the human condition from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility. It asks if fluctuating populations is a new phenomenon, or if there has long been an inherent tendency in Man to maximize survival and to control family size.
Demographic transition constitutes one of the most fundamental modern historical changes; people live much longer, have fewer children, and experience higher mobility. This book examines the basic mechanisms behind the modernisation of demographic behaviour. The author has marshalled an impressive array of statistical material relating to sixty-seven countries, half of them less developed countries. Most of the tables are time-series, covering many decades and sometimes go back to the nineteenth, and even eighteenth centuries. The whole sweep of western experience is dealt with here impartially. Though technically sophisticated, the book also covers issues of interpretation and analysis. The author puts forward a number of challenging propositions: mortality decrease is shown to necessarily precede fertility and decline, so-called execptions being simply false exceptions. He shows how the decline of fertility is dependent on important and manifold social transformations. The strong connections between international migration and the course of demographic transition are demonstrated, as is the fact that less developed countries are following the same general patterns as MDCs. There is also discussion of why the theory of demographic transition must include the effect of population changes on the economic progress of society.
This book discusses policies to achieve inclusive growth in India and realise the demographic dividend, which will end by 2040 when India will become an aging society. India is the world's fastest growing large economy, but jobs are not growing equally rapidly. The size of India's youth workforce is worrying, and the largely informal workforce is not covered by social insurance. Universal elementary education, despite the Right to Education Act 2009, is yet to be achieved. Health outcomes have improved only slowly over the years. Furthermore, sanitation still remains a very serious problem. As an economist and former policy-maker, the author discusses specific policies to address these problems, well beyond what is currently being practised. The book also deals with the governance issues that need to be addressed before inclusive growth can be attained.
Large cohorts of young adults are poised to add to the working-age population of developing economies. Despite much interest in the consequent growth dividend, the size and circumstances of the potential gains remain under-explored. This study makes progress by focusing on India, which will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition ahead. It exploits the variation in the age structure of the population across Indian states to identify the demographic dividend. The main finding is that there is a large and significant growth impact of both the level and growth rate of the working age ratio. This result is robust to a variety of empirical strategies, including a correction for inter-state migration. The results imply that a substantial fraction of the growth acceleration that India has experienced since the 1980s - sometimes ascribed exclusively to economic reforms - is attributable to changes in the country’s age structure. Moreover, the demographic dividend could add about 2 percentage points per annum to India’s per capita GDP growth over the next two decades. With the future expansion of the working age ratio concentrated in some of India’s poorest states, income convergence may well speed up, a theme likely to recur on the global stage.
The contributors looks at the transition and some of the factors underlying it, such as how Kerala differs from other Indian states, the role played by education, age at marriage and the use of contraception, and the impact of migration.
There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
As the world's population exceeds an incredible 6 billion people, governmentsâ€"and scientistsâ€"everywhere are concerned about the prospects for sustainable development. The science academies of the three most populous countries have joined forces in an unprecedented effort to understand the linkage between population growth and land-use change, and its implications for the future. By examining six sites ranging from agricultural to intensely urban to areas in transition, the multinational study panel asks how population growth and consumption directly cause land-use change, and explore the general nature of the forces driving the transformations. Growing Populations, Changing Landscapes explains how disparate government policies with unintended consequences and globalization effects that link local land-use changes to consumption patterns and labor policies in distant countries can be far more influential than simple numerical population increases. Recognizing the importance of these linkages can be a significant step toward more effective environmental management.
This open access book draws the big picture of how population change interplays with politics across the world from 1990 to 2040. Leading social scientists from a wide range of disciplines discuss, for the first time, all major political and policy aspects of population change as they play out differently in each major world region: North and South America; Sub-Saharan Africa and the MENA region; Western and East Central Europe; Russia, Belarus and Ukraine; East Asia; Southeast Asia; subcontinental India, Pakistan and Bangladesh; Australia and New Zealand. These macro-regional analyses are completed by cross-cutting global analyses of migration, religion and poverty, and age profiles and intra-state conflicts. From all angles, this book shows how strongly contextualized the political management and the political consequences of population change are. While long-term population ageing and short-term migration fluctuations present structural conditions, political actors play a key role in (mis-)managing, manipulating, and (under-)planning population change, which in turn determines how citizens in different groups react.
The demographic transition and its related effects of population growth, fertility decline and ageing populations are fraught with controversy. When discussed in relation to the global south and the modern project of development, the questions and answers become more problematic. Population and Development offers an expert guide on the demographic transition, from its origins in Enlightenment Europe through to the rest of the world. Tim Dyson examines how, while the phenomenon continues to cause unsustainable population growth with serious economic and environmental implications, its processes have underlain previous periods of sustained economic growth, helped to liberate women from the domestic domain, and contributed greatly to the rise of modern democracy. This accessible yet scholarly analysis will enable any student or expert in development studies to understand complex and vital demographic theory.