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Every year, sports bettors around the world wager billions of dollars on the NFL. But only a small fraction win. The decades of experience the sportsbooks have when creating the lines combined with the vigorish charged on each bet mean that without a battle-tested, mathematically sound handicapping approach, the typical recreational sports bettor has no chance.Picking NFL Winners: A Statistical Handicapping Primer introduces a powerful handicapping methodology grounded in predictive analytics to give the reader the upper hand over the sportsbooks. In this book, we will explore which statistics, ratings, and other information have had the biggest influence on the NFL point spread. Using this knowledge, we then introduce predictive models which the reader can use themselves, leveraging readily-available information, to beat the NFL.Written for intermediate to advanced sports bettors, or anyone else who wants to win, Picking NFL Winners: A Statistical Handicapping Primer addresses many key questions about NFL handicapping, including: -- How to account for injuries-- Which statistics have the most value in predicting the point spread-- How one should weigh recent results versus past results when handicapping-- Why early-season and late-season handicapping are very different-- How big of an influence do short-rest weeks, the bye week, and travel have on the point spread-- Whether time-zone effects / circadian advantage exists in the NFL-- How to use teasers, halftime lines, and line moves to improve your NFL betting resultsAnd much more. Picking NFL Winners: A Statistical Handicapping Primer is an invaluable resource to all serious NFL bettors, and anyone else looking to understand how to beat sports betting, regardless of what sport you wager
How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread will set bettors on a confidence-building path lined with high-priority realities which for decades have flown under the typical football bettor's radar. Smith emphasizes that pure football knowledge must be absorbed, then applied to the world of pointspreads. He teaches his readers to look at the game with the bettor's eye instead of the fan's, and explains his theories on reasonable statistical expectations and how to challenge the oddsmakers. He also discusses the implications of coaching styles, stadium locations, and even the weather on each bet made throughout the season. With years of football betting under his belt, Smith has written a key resource for anyone wagering on America's most popular sport.
This book includes LIFETIME Access my top sports pick(s) VIA Picks Network (a $2,999 value). You'll also have the ability to purchase turnkey handicapping sites at anytime in the future at the current members rate. See site for complete details. You'll also receive a copy of my first book called; GA "Gambling Aimlessly" is for Bitches which will show you how to change your betting advantage from -110 to +120 or more on all your straight wagers. This information is worth $1,000's in itself. I also throw in some of my own gambling angles that I like to use during the year, in addition to special discounts on all my future books you wish to purchase. So you'll not only receive my very own National Football League (NFL) Handicapping Picks for LIFE, but some other useful information as well. So I hope you enjoy it!
In this second edition that takes into consideration the perpetually evolving NFL rules, How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread continues to set bettors on a confidence-building path lined with high-priority realities that for decades have flown under the typical football bettor’s radar. Smith emphasizes that pure football knowledge must be absorbed and then applied to the world of point spreads. He teaches his readers to look at the game with the bettor’s eye instead of the fan’s, and explains his theories about reasonable statistical expectations and ways to challenge the oddsmakers. He also discusses the implications of coaching styles, stadium locations, and even the weather on each bet made throughout the season. With years of football betting under his belt, Smith has written a key resource for anyone wagering on America’s most popular sport. Skyhorse Publishing, as well as our Sports Publishing imprint, are proud to publish a broad range of books for readers interested in sports—books about baseball, pro football, college football, pro and college basketball, hockey, or soccer, we have a book about your sport or your team. Whether you are a New York Yankees fan or hail from Red Sox nation; whether you are a die-hard Green Bay Packers or Dallas Cowboys fan; whether you root for the Kentucky Wildcats, Louisville Cardinals, UCLA Bruins, or Kansas Jayhawks; whether you route for the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, Montreal Canadiens, or Los Angeles Kings; we have a book for you. While not every title we publish becomes a New York Times bestseller or a national bestseller, we are committed to publishing books on subjects that are sometimes overlooked by other publishers and to authors whose work might not otherwise find a home.
Sports betting is the ultimate gambling game, combining the intellectual challenge of handicapping with the excitement of sports that we would all pay to watch anyway. But beating the bookmakers is tough, and after paying the vigorish, almost all bettors lose. To become one of the select few who make money betting sports, you need a plan.Winning Sports Betting lays out everything you need to build your own winning sports betting plan. The tools of the trade employed by all winning sports bettors are discussed in detail, including: -Arbitrage and steam betting-Betting derivatives-Bankroll management-Handicapping-Finding winning trends-Timing your bets-Paying for picks-Bearding / multi-accounting-Syndicates-Turning proThere is no sure-fire path to riches in sports betting, but by following the roadmap provided in Winning Sports Betting you will greatly improve your chances of success
A classic guide to handicap strategies in the field of thoroughbred racing Just as football evolved with the introduction of the forward pass and basketball with the development of the jump shot, so too was handicapping forever changed by the use of speed figures--and it all started with Andrew Beyer. With a foreword discussing the changes that have swept horse racing since the book's original publication in 1975, Picking Winners is essential reading both for serious horseplayers and curious amateurs.
2019 Edition! Is it really possible to win $700,000 picking winners in professional football? You bet it is! Somebody did it last year (actually he won over a million dollars!), and somebody else (possibly you?) is going to do it again this year. How? The answer is only a click away! If you enjoy picking winners in professional football, then this could be your biggest year ever. I'm talking about a massive payout. I'm talking about $700,000 (or more). What would you do with an extra $700,000? To win that kind of money it helps to have an understanding of the teams, players and coaches in the NFL. So as an added bonus, I'm including in this book my comprehensive analysis and football betting tips for the Week One game between Atlanta and Minnesota, along with each team's prognosis for the entire season. In last year's edition of this book, I recommended taking Cleveland in Week One with the points (a winner), on the money line (a push), under the total (a winner), and over their season win total (another winner). I predicted a final score of 20-17. The final score was 20-20. I predicted Cleveland would win at least division games. They won three division games and tied a fourth. Don't you think it might be worth your while to least see what I have to say about Atlanta and Minnesota in Week One this year? In the 2016 edition of this book, I wrote this about Arizona: "Most sports bettors that I've talked to are expecting a big year from Arizona, and plan to bet them accordingly. Not me. My analysis indicates this team is headed for a major setback. In fact, I think you'll be shocked by what my sources and I have discovered about this team. If you're planning to bet the NFL this season, then you want to be on the right side here, and the right side for Arizona is not the side that everyone is expecting." That analysis was right on the money, in more ways than one. In fact, I'm the only football writer in the entire country that correctly predicted exactly why Arizona would crash and burn. How did I know what I knew? You'll know yourself by the time you finish this book. Football Betting to Win If this little sports betting book is able to help lead you to only one winner, or help lead you off just one loser, it will be worth 50 to 100 times its cost to you. In this work you'll find a way to channel your skill at picking football winners into a possible payout of $700,000. If you have the knowledge - if you can pick winners in professional football - then I'll show you a way to take your sports betting skill and possibly cash the biggest payout of your life. Others have done it, why not you? Week One NFL Winners I would be remiss if I didn't mention the 2019 edition of Week One NFL Winners currently available on Amazon. This is the most comprehensive analysis of the Week One NFL games available anywhere in the world. In it, I cover the entire NFL card, with detailed predictions for every game, recommended teams to bet on or against, football betting tips and betting systems for every team, and the exact games I intend to bet myself. It also includes free updates one week before the season starts. I'm so sure that you'll agree it's the most valuable football handicapping book you've ever read, I offer it with a money-back guarantee. If you're not happy, simply return the book to Amazon and they will cheerfully refund your money. It doesn't get any more honest or fair than that. Thanks for taking the time to read this. Here's to YOU winning $700,000 (or more) this football season! Football Handicapping, Football Betting, Sports Betting Book, sports gambling, NFL betting
What does it take to create a winning sports betting model?Many people are interested in learning how to make smarter sports betting wagers. Not many of those same people are excited at the prospect of learning applied statistics to better inform their choices. You can't entirely blame them. Statistics has a well-earned reputation for being somewhat inaccessible by non-academics. It is a field filled with heavy terminology, confusing formulaic notation and concepts not fully relevant to the beginning sports bettor. To make matters worse, nobody in possession of a positive edge model is all that keen to show you how it works. As a result of this, sports modelling successfully requires a toolbox that you largely have to assemble for yourself. This book is my attempt to correct that, as I pull back the curtain on Excel spreadsheet models and techniques I developed in my first few years of sports betting. It is designed to give you an accessible crash course on modelling that will get you up to speed on the key relevant principles of statistics with a minimum amount of heavy technical jargon. You'll learn the most effective concepts in an easy-to-understand way and greatly speed up your learning curve in the process. Best of all, I'll walk you through sports betting models for many major sports: NFL, NBA, NHL, AFL and the English Premier League. You'll even be able to download these spreadsheet models and work your way through them while following this book.We'll be doing all of this in one of the most user friendly programs available: Excel. This program might not be the expert's first choice of platform for modelling work, but you'll be surprised just how much you can do with a spreadsheet or two.If you're ready to take your sports modelling to the next level - open this book, fire up Excel, and let's get to work. See you on the inside.
Do you bet on football games or participate in office football pools?Are you a professional gambler, a professional sports bettor, or just someone who enjoys betting on sports?If you said Yes to any of these questions, then this book is for you. It's designed to get you off to a winning start, beginning in Week One of the NFL season. Here you'll find comprehensive analysis for all sixteen Week One NFL games, along with tips on sports betting, advice on picking NFL winners, and expert game predictions to help you win hundreds, perhaps even thousands of dollars, along with your football office pool.If you're ready to win money this football season, you've come to the right place.