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This report discusses key policy challenges that need to be addressed if the Philippines were to embark on sustainable and inclusive growth. We take the view that the main reason behind the Philippines' lagging growth and development outcomes in the regional context lies in a sluggish transformation of the economy---in particular, stagnant industrialization. Chronic problems of unemployment, poverty, and low investment are reflections of weak industrial development. The economy has been led by services, and it has been further shifting toward services with the growing business process outsourcing. Nevertheless, sole development of the services sectors is not sufficient to address the development challenges and lead to inclusive growth. We propose more targeted public sector support, which focuses on specific industries and products for industrial upgrading and diversification. This report shows a methodology of choosing products for targeted public sector support, and recommends effective dialogue between the public and private sectors to identify constraints specific to the target products and to develop adequate solutions. The Philippines needs to develop a stronger industrial base to enable the economy to "walk on two legs" of industry and modern services, to create productive job opportunities for the growing working-age population.
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
To achieve the AmBisyon Natin 2040, the Philippines needs to triple its income per capita in the next two decades. The AmBisyon Natin 2040 is the government's plan to transform the country into a prosperous middle-class society free of poverty by 2040. This implies that the Philippine economy needs to grow at an annual average of 6.5 percent in the next 22 years, faster than the average growth of 5.3 percent since 2000-a challenge that only the Asian Tigers and China have managed to accomplish in the past. This report shows that sustaining high growth can only be achieved if the Philippines succeeds in sustaining high Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth while accelerating capital accumulation. To achieve the GDP per capita target by 2040, numerous scenarios regarding the potential mix of growth drivers were evaluated. The first key finding is that sustaining high TFP growth will be crucial to achieve the target. Specifically, the Philippines needs to sustain an average annual TFP growth rate of 1.5 percent or higher in the next 22 years, more than double the world average since 2000. Such a high rate of TFP growth will require deep structural reforms to remove constraints and distortions faced by the private sector. The second key finding is that accelerating capital accumulation in the medium term will be essential to reduce current infrastructure and capital constraints to growth. The Philippines can meet the capital accumulation requirement by doubling the growth rate in the physical investment-to-GDP ratio over the next five years through higher private and public investment, which would require the implementation of important reforms that are highlighted in this report. The top three policy reform areas for sustaining high growth and productivity, prerequisites for achieving Ambisyon Natin 2040 are: (i) improving market competition through regulatory reforms; (ii) improving trade and investment climate policies and regulations; (iii) reducing labor market rigidities and costs. By creating competitive and flexible markets, poverty alleviation is likely to accelerate through more jobs, higher labor productivity, and lower consumer prices. An equal playing field and a regulatory environment that makes it easy to do business encourage firms to enter the market, invest, grow, create jobs, and innovate, leading to higher productivity. Market competition coupled with flexible a labor market and abundant labor supply allows higher productivity to reduce product prices, which increases workers' real income. As a result of more and higher paid jobs, more people will move out of poverty, helping achieve the AmBisyon Natin 2040 vision of a society free of poverty.
This book addresses the rising productivity gap between the global frontier and other firms, and identifies a number of structural impediments constraining business start-ups, knowledge diffusion and resource allocation (such as barriers to up-scaling and relatively high rates of skill mismatch).