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In order to address long-standing economic challenges, in 2016 the Government of Egypt (GOE) put in place a major economic reform program to restore macroeconomic stability and to promote inclusive growth. As a result, there are early signs that the economy is rebounding and Egypt’s economic outlook is becoming more favorable. However, it is less clear how the ongoing reform program is affecting households, especially the poor. To shed light on this question, this paper uses an economy-wide model to estimate the distributional impacts of the energy subsidy cuts in 2014, 2016, and 2017, the currency devaluation at the end of 2016, and the expected complete phasing out of energy subsidies over the coming years.
This paper examines the short- and long-run economic impact of Egypt's energy subsidy reform in July 2014 (without and without compensating transfers for the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution) and the decline in global energy prices, as well as the long-run impact of phasing out the energy subsidies over a 5 year period. The analysis uses a Computable General Equilibrium model with 56 productive sectors, including 11 energy subsectors. The short-run analysis employs a two-stage factor market adjustment, with wages first fixed and then flexible. The long-run analysis is run in a recursive dynamic mode, capturing the impact of improved productivity and increased investment resulting from more efficient allocation of resources and reduction in government deficits. In the short run, the 2014 reforms lead to slightly lower consumption while investment increases strongly and production shifts from highly subsidized energy-intensive sectors such as energy, water and sanitation, and transport to other sectors (notably construction). The impact on overall consumer prices is limited. In the longer run, real GDP growth increases by about one percentage point relative to the baseline before the 2014 reform.
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
Energy subsidies are aimed at protecting consumers, however, subsidies aggravate fiscal imbalances, crowd out priority public spending, and depress private investment, including in the energy sector. This book provides the most comprehensive estimates of energy subsidies currently available for 176 countries and an analysis of “how to do” energy subsidy reform, drawing on insights from 22 country case studies undertaken by the IMF staff and analyses carried out by other institutions.
The reform of energy subsidies is an important but challenging issue for sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. There is a relatively large theoretical and empirical literature on this issue. While this paper relies on that literature, too, it tailors its discussion to SSA countries to respond to the following questions: Why it is important to reduce energy subsidies? What are the difficulties involved in energy subsidy reform? How best can a subsidy reform be implemented? This paper uses various sources of information on SSA countries: quantitative assessments, surveys, and individual (but standardized) case studies.
This comprehensive volume provides the first book-length account on the politics of fossil fuel subsidies. This title is also available as Open Access.
The Egyptian Food Subsidy System: Structure, Performance, and Options for Reform evaluates the economic, political, and technical feasibility of reducing costs while improving or maintaining the welfare of the poor. The report addresses five questions: (1) How well does the present system target the poor? (2) How much leakage- the pilferage of subsidized foods in the distribution channel-occurs? (3) At what cost does the government transfer income to the needy? (4) How can subsidies be better targeted to the needy? And (5) What are politically feasible options for reform?
This report of the evaluation study provides a greater focus on measuring the impact of the larger Takaful program and also attempts to measure the impact of the much smaller Karama program. In addition, IFPRI will conduct a qualitative assessment of the Takaful and Karama program focused on learning about the experience with the program among the poorest beneficiary households. This qualitative assessment will also draw lessons from the quantitative survey to provide another report on the experience of very poor households. The remainder of this report is organized as follows Chapter 2 provides an overview of the Takaful and Karama Program. Chapter 3 summarizes the impact evaluation design. Chapter 4 describes the evaluation survey and sample. Chapter 5 provides context for the program by using the survey data to summarize the characteristics of beneficiary and non-beneficiary households and describe beneficiaries’ experience with program implementation. Chapter 6 presents the impact estimates for Takaful and Chapter 7 the estimates for Karama. Chapter 8 uses data from a separate representative sample of households collected during the survey to assess the targeting performance of the program. Chapter 9 concludes and discusses implications for social policy in Egypt.