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Peru’s very strong macroeconomic policies and institutional policy frameworks have helped anchor strong growth and stability over the past several years and navigate the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The confluence of a sound inflation-targeting regime, flexible exchange rate, credible fiscal framework, reflected in very low public debt, and sound financial sector supervision and regulation have allowed the country to deploy a robust policy response to mitigate the socio-economic impact of the pandemic while sustaining strong access to international capital markets. Following the worst economic contraction in 30 years, economic activity is expected to rebound this year as COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out, and the pandemic is gradually brought under control. Real GDP is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by 2022, supported by improved terms-of-trade and a pick-up in domestic demand. The second round of presidential elections is scheduled for June 6.

Peru

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Published: 2023-05-19

Total Pages: 52


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Peru’s long track record of very strong economic fundamentals and institutional policy frameworks allowed the country to deploy a robust policy response to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and a subsequent successful withdrawal, while preserving macroeconomic stability and sustaining ample access to international capital markets. GDP growth slowed in 2022, falling below potential as the policy stimulus was withdrawn, the external backdrop turned more challenging, and political instability weighed on private investment. Growth is expected to remain subdued in 2023 and to converge gradually to potential over the medium term. Inflation rose in line with international trends but is expected to fall towards the upper end of the target range by year-end. The macroeconomic policy mix is broadly appropriate.
Over the last quarter of a century, Peru has become one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America. During this period, Peru built very strong policy and institutional frameworks and economic fundamentals while maintaining external, financial, and fiscal stability. The strength of the Peruvian economy was tested with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when the economy collapsed, leading to a significant deterioration of the fiscal accounts. Subsequently, the economy recovered strongly in 2021, and the fiscal position strengthened considerably, while inflationary pressures emerged (in line with global trends). However, Peru is bearing a very high humanitarian and economic cost from the COVID-19 pandemic, sizable under-employment, and a large increase in poverty. These challenges and recent social unrest related to high energy and food prices point to the need to accelerate structural reforms to foster high and inclusive growth. While political uncertainty has risen, with frequent cabinet reshufflings, the authorities remain committed to maintaining their very strong policy frameworks and prudent macroeconomic policies.
COVID-19 has taken a severe toll on Colombia’s society and economy—including over 60,000 deaths and over 5 million jobs temporarily lost in Colombia’s largest recession on record. A gradual but uneven recovery led by private domestic demand and manufacturing is underway, but services continue to be weak. While the economy had remained resilient before the pandemic owing to very strong policy frameworks, economic activity is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2022.

Peru

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Published: 2020-05-29

Total Pages: 76


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This paper highlights Peru’s Request for Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL). Peru qualifies for the FCL by virtue of its very strong fundamentals and institutional policy frameworks and track record of economic performance and policy implementation. The coronavirus disease 2019 shock poses an extraordinary challenge, which is pushing the Peruvian economy into a recession. The authorities have responded decisively by putting in place stringent containment measures and a large policy package to limit the socio-economic fallout, which has been possible thanks to Peru’s ample fiscal space and monetary policy credibility. The package includes a broad set of measures aimed at containing the health emergency, supporting vulnerable businesses and households, and maintaining adequate credit flows to the economy. Nonetheless, and despite its very strong policy buffers, Peru remains vulnerable to external tail risks. A prolonged Covid-19 outbreak would have significant repercussions for trade and financial flows, which could put significant pressure on Peru’s balance of payments and magnify the adverse domestic impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 shock.
This paper discusses Poland’s performance under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement. In recent years, Poland’s macroeconomic policies have focused on further strengthening fundamentals and institutional frameworks. Fiscal consolidation has led to an exit from the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Monetary policy has been eased to help lift inflation. Financial sector supervision has been strengthened with a new macroprudential framework. Reserves are broadly adequate against standard metrics. The new government has pledged to maintain prudent policies, including gradual fiscal consolidation over the medium term, and to ensure the continued stability of the banking system. In the period ahead, it will be important to identify specific growth-friendly measures to underpin the fiscal adjustment and reduce implementation risk.

Colombia

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Published: 2012-09-20

Total Pages: 33


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Colombia’s very strong track record of macroeconomic policy management, underpinned by robust fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, has reduced vulnerabilities in recent years and helped weather the global financial crisis. The authorities’ policy focus has shifted from supporting the recovery through appropriate countercyclical measures to rebuilding policy buffers through fiscal consolidation, the normalization of monetary policy, and a strengthening of the reserve position.
After being hit very hard by the pandemic in 2020, both in terms of health and economic outcomes, Peru experienced an equally strong economic rebound in 2021. A new administration was inaugurated in July 2021 with a program focused on reducing inequality and improving social conditions, but limited support from Congress and lack of cohesion heightened political uncertainty. While real GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic level by 2021, labor force participation and total employment have not fully recovered yet. Poverty increased significantly in 2020 and, despite some improvement in 2021, remains higher than in 2019. On May 27, 2021, the IMF Executive Board completed the mid-term review of Peru’s continued qualification under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement.

Mexico

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Published: 2024-11

Total Pages: 132


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Economic activity is decelerating, and inflation pressures are receding. The fiscal deficit is expected to register a substantial increase in 2024. Mexico maintains sizable buffers, a strong external position, and effective financial oversight. A range of supply-side reforms will be needed to catalyze lasting higher growth.

Colombia

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Published: 2024-05-02

Total Pages: 71


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Colombia’s very strong policies and policy frameworks have helped to significantly reduce domestic and external imbalances and brought the economy to more sustainable levels of activity and demand. Market confidence has improved, but risk premia remain high compared to peers. The authorities remain committed to sustaining their track record of very strong policies to durably eliminate imbalances while facilitating a smooth convergence of the economy to potential levels and enhancing the country’s resilience and capacity to respond to shocks.