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Having the high unemployment in Germany in mind, this book discusses how macroeconomic theory has evolved over the past forty years. It shows that in recent years a convergence has taken place, with modern models embodying a Keynesian transmission mechanism, monetarist policy implication, and modeling techniques inspired by new classical economics and real business cycle theory. It also probes in which direction models may be extended from here. Empirically, the book uses different econometric techniques to investigate the relevance and implications of different macroeconomic theories for German data. A key question this book investigates is the role of demand and supply side conditions for the increase in the German unemployment rate. On a policy level, the book relates the implications of the different theories to the ongoing debate on the appropriate roles of demand and supply side policies for curing the German unemployment problem.
In 2003–05, Germany undertook extensive labor market reforms which were followed by a large and persistent decline in unemployment. Key elements of the reforms were a drastic cut in benefits for the long-term unemployed and tighter job search and acceptance obligations. Using a large confidential data set from the German social security administration, we find that the reforms were associated with a fall in the earnings of workers returning to work from short-term unemployment relative to workers in long-term employment of about 10 percent. We interpret this as evidence that the reforms strengthened incentives to return to work but, in doing so, they adversely affected post re-entry earnings.
The empirical analysis indicates that in the Federal Republic the unemployed primarily influence the relationship between the level of real wages and productivity, rather than the growth of wages. This result suggests a distinction between an equilibrium natural rate of unemployment, which is estimated to have been 3-4 percent in the 1980s, and a quasi-equilibrium unemployment rate closer to actual rates of 7-8 percent. Corresponding to these two concepts of equilibrium unemployment, estimates are presented of alternative concepts of potential output that differ according to whether labor input is consistent with the quasi-equilibrium rate of unemployment or with the natural rate of unemployment.
Weder empirische Daten noch die ökonomische Theorie geben klare Anhaltspunkte, wie sich regionale Disparitäten entwickeln und welche politischen Maßnahmen angebracht sind, um diese zu reduzieren. Dies gilt insbesondere für Deutschland, wo die Wiedervereinigung zwischen West- und Ostdeutschland im Jahr 1990 die regionalen Arbeitslosigkeitsunterschiede deutlich verstärkt hat. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt Marcus Kunz drei zentrale Fragen: 1. Zeigen Arbeitslosenquoten in den Kreisen und Regionen Deutschlands regionale Konvergenz oder Divergenz? 2. Wie erfolgt die Anpassung von Kreisen und Regionen nach einem regionalen Arbeitsmarktschock? 3. Welche Faktoren sind für die regionalen Arbeitslosigkeitsunterschiede in Westdeutschland verantwortlich? Im Gegensatz zu anderen Studien über regionale Arbeitslosenquoten in Deutschland, die sich ausschließlich auf größere Regionen konzentrieren, zeichnet die Studie von Kunz ein detaillierteres empirisches Bild, da der Fokus auf der Entwicklung der Kreisebene liegt, wo die Unterschiede besonders ausgeprägt sind. Publikationssprache: Englisch
Arguing that Canada's unemployment crisis could have been avoided with better government policies, particularly less restrictive monetary control, contributors examine the effect of the Bank of Canada's zero-inflation policy and the role of unemployment insurance on the crisis of recent years. Analysis also includes discussion of unemployment in France, Germany, and Japan. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR