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Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
In Stateless Commerce, Barak Richman uses the colorful case study of the diamond industry to explore how ethnic trading networks operate and why they persist in the twenty-first century. How, for example, does the 47th Street diamond district in midtown Manhattan—surrounded by skyscrapers and sophisticated financial institutions—continue to thrive as an ethnic marketplace that operates like a traditional bazaar? Conventional models of economic and technological progress suggest that such primitive commercial networks would be displaced by new trading paradigms, yet in the heart of New York City the old world persists. Richman’s explanation is deceptively simple. Far from being an anachronism, 47th Street’s ethnic enclave is an adaptive response to the unique pressures of the diamond industry. Ethnic trading networks survive because they better fulfill many functions usually performed by state institutions. While the modern world rests heavily on lawyers, courts, and state coercion, ethnic merchants regularly sell goods and services by relying solely on familiarity, trust, and community enforcement—what economists call “relational exchange.” These commercial networks insulate themselves from the outside world because the outside world cannot provide those assurances. Extending the framework of transactional cost and organizational economics, Stateless Commerce draws on rare insider interviews to explain why personal exchange succeeds, even as most global trade succumbs to the forces of modernization, and what it reveals about the limitations of the modern state in governing the economy.
When does trade become a one-way relationship? We study bilateral trade balances for a sample of 18 European countries over the period from 1948 through 2008. We find that, with the introduction of the euro, trade imbalances among euro area members widened considerably, even after allowing for permanent asymmetries in trade competitiveness within pairs of countries or in the overall trade competitiveness of individual countries. This is consistent with indications that pair-wise trade tends to be more balanced when nominal exchange rates are flexible. Intra-euro area imbalances also seem to have become more persistent with the introduction of the euro, some of which is linked to labor market inflexibility. Reviewing the direction of imbalances, we find that bilateral trade surpluses are decreasing in the real exchange rate, decreasing in growth differentials, and increasing in the relative volatility of national business cycles. Finally, countries with relatively higher fiscal deficits and less flexible labor and product markets exhibit systematically lower trade surpluses than others.
On October 23 and 24, 1987, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted its twelfth annual economic policy conference, "The U.S. Trade Deficit: Causes, Consequences, and Cures." This book contains the papers and comments delivered at that conference. A sharp decline in the value of the dollar against major foreign cur rencies began in March 1985 and continued through December 1987. Despite this decline, the U.S. trade deficit experienced considerable growth during this time. Many consider the simultaneous occurrence of these two events over so long a period to be a problem requiring a policy response. The conference addresses this issue. Various papers discuss the cause of the trade deficit, the reason for its size and persistence, its relation ship with other macroeconomic variables, its impact on other industrialized countries, and various policy proposals aimed at reducing the deficit. Session I Peter Hooper and Catherine L. Mann provide an analytical setting for the conference with their "The U.S. External Deficit: Its Causes and Persistence." Their observation that the unprecedentedly large U. S. trade imbalance is striking in both its size and its persistence could well be the subtitle of each of the papers presented. The macroeconomic studies, which Hooper and Mann summarize in their review of the existing literature, uniformly conclude that the deficit has not responded to fundamental macroeconomic determinants-relative U.S. income growth and the dollar's exchange rate-in the way that earlier, smaller U.S.
This paper examines the persistence of shocks to world commodity prices, using monthly IMF data on primary commodities between 1957–98. We find that shocks to commodity prices are typically long–lasting and the variability of the persistence of price shocks is quite wide. The paper also discusses the implications of these findings for national and international schemes to stabilize earnings from commodity exports and finds that if price shocks are long–lived, then the cost of stabilization schemes will likely exceed any associated smoothing benefits.
A bold re-conceptualization of the fundamentals driving behavior and dynamics in cyberspace. Most cyber operations and campaigns fall short of activities that states would regard as armed conflict. In Cyber Persistence Theory, Michael P. Fischerkeller, Emily O. Goldman, and Richard J. Harknett argue that a failure to understand this strategic competitive space has led many states to misapply the logic and strategies of coercion and conflict to this environment and, thus, suffer strategic loss as a result. The authors show how the paradigm of deterrence theory can neither explain nor manage the preponderance of state cyber activity. They present a new theory that illuminates the exploitive, rather than coercive, dynamics of cyber competition and an analytical framework that can serve as the basis for new strategies of persistence. Drawing on their policy experience, they offer a new set of prescriptions to guide policymakers toward a more stable, secure cyberspace.
The Bearlake Athapaskan-speaking Indians of Canada's Northwest Territories have valued industriousness, generosity, individual autonomy, and emotional restraint for many generations. They also highly esteem "control" in human thought and behavior. The latter value integrates the others in a coherent framework of moral responsibility that persists as a central feature of Bearlake culture. Rushforth here provides an ethnographic description and analysis of these beliefs and values, which considers their relationship to examples of Bearlake social behavior.
The emerging field of computational topology utilizes theory from topology and the power of computing to solve problems in diverse fields. Recent applications include computer graphics, computer-aided design (CAD), and structural biology, all of which involve understanding the intrinsic shape of some real or abstract space. A primary goal of this book is to present basic concepts from topology and Morse theory to enable a non-specialist to grasp and participate in current research in computational topology. The author gives a self-contained presentation of the mathematical concepts from a computer scientist's point of view, combining point set topology, algebraic topology, group theory, differential manifolds, and Morse theory. He also presents some recent advances in the area, including topological persistence and hierarchical Morse complexes. Throughout, the focus is on computational challenges and on presenting algorithms and data structures when appropriate.
Persistence theory emerged in the early 2000s as a new theory in the area of applied and computational topology. This book provides a broad and modern view of the subject, including its algebraic, topological, and algorithmic aspects. It also elaborates on applications in data analysis. The level of detail of the exposition has been set so as to keep a survey style, while providing sufficient insights into the proofs so the reader can understand the mechanisms at work. The book is organized into three parts. The first part is dedicated to the foundations of persistence and emphasizes its connection to quiver representation theory. The second part focuses on its connection to applications through a few selected topics. The third part provides perspectives for both the theory and its applications. The book can be used as a text for a course on applied topology or data analysis.
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.