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Past literature on managed futures funds has found little evidence that the top performing funds can be predicted. But, the past literature has used small datasets and methods which had little power to reject the null hypothesis of no performance persistence. The objective of this research is to: determine whether performance persists for managed futures advisors using large datasets and methods which have power to reject the null hypothesis.We use data from public funds, private funds, and commodity trading advisors (CTAs). The analysis proceeds in four steps. First, a regression approach is used to determine whether after adjusting for changes in overall returns and differences in leverage that funds all have the same mean returns. Second, we use Monte Carlo methods to demonstrate that Elton, Gruber, and Rentzler's methods have little power to reject false null hypotheses and will reject true null hypotheses too often. Third, we conduct an out-of-sample test of various methods of selecting the top funds. Fourth, since we do find some performance persistence, we seek to explain the sources of this performance persistence by using regressions of (a) returns against CTA characteristics, (b) return risk against CTA characteristics, (c) returns against lagged returns, and (d) changes in investment against lagged returns.Performance persistence could exist due to either differences in cost or differences in the skill of the manager. Our results favor skill as the explanation since returns were positively correlated with cost. The performance persistence is statistically significant, but is small relative to the variation in the data (only 2-4% of the total variation). But, the performance persistence is large relative to the mean. Monte Carlo methods showed that the methods used in past research could often not reject false null hypotheses and would reject true null hypotheses too often. Out-of-sample tests confirmed that there is some performance persistence, but it is small relative to the noise in the data. A return/risk measure showed more persistence than either of the return measures. Picking CTAs based on returns in the most recent year may even be worse than a strategy of randomly picking a CTA.
Examines the role of managed futures in the asset allocation process. Highlights recent innovations in managed futures product development. Examines current research into the nature of market inefficiencies.
An all-inclusive guide to trend following As more and more savvy investors move into the space, trend following has become one of the most popular investment strategies. Written for investors and investment managers, Trend Following with Managed Futures offers an insightful overview of both the basics and theoretical foundations for trend following. The book also includes in-depth coverage of more advanced technical aspects of systematic trend following. The book examines relevant topics such as: Trend following as an alternative asset class Benchmarking and factor decomposition Applications for trend following in an investment portfolio And many more By focusing on the investor perspective, Trend Following with Managed Futures is a groundbreaking and invaluable resource for anyone interested in modern systematic trend following.
Understanding risk is important. Prior to 2008, as the yields on safe assets hit rock bottom, investors began to focus on an alphabet soup of more complex instruments. These complex securities were rated AAA and appeared as safe as U.S. Treasuries, but with much higher yields. The 2008 financial crisis revealed, however, that higher yields on these instruments came with higher risk, albeit too late for these investors. This study seeks to understand the risk–return tradeoff, managerial skill, and factor exposures on the risk-return tradeoff in two financial instruments that have been limitedly investigated: commodity trading advisors (CTAs) and managed futures funds (MFFs). This study begins by documenting the differences between CTAs/MFFs and hedge funds and mutual funds, starting with the legal and operational differences. Next, it conducts a performance analysis, which indicates that CTAs and MFFs, as standalone investment vehicles, provide returns that are higher than the average market returns in bear markets, while carrying lower risk. The strong standing of CTAs and MFFs in bear markets earn them their reputation as “downside risk protectors.” CTAs and MFFs are profitable individual assets but adding these funds to classical asset portfolios enhances portfolio performance significantly. This feature makes them strong hedging assets. As expected, their performance is below that of standard assets in up markets. Chapter 4 finds that the superior performance of CTAs and MFFs can be explained by managerial skill. Positive and significant Jensen alphas are evidence of good performance; moreover, the persistence of the Jensen alphas is supported by both parametric and non-parametric tests. Incentive fees and fund age are found to be positively related to managerial skill, while (somewhat surprisingly) management fees are found to be negatively related to it. Chapter 5 finds that many financial and macroeconomic factors are statistically unrelated to CTA and MFF performance. However, the value premium (HML) factor and industrial production growth (IPG) are correlated with their performance. HML has a relation effect on one-month-ahead fund returns, whereas IPG has a negative association with them. Nonparametric tests support these results marginally. Overall, these findings suggest that both CTAs and MFFs use well-known and well-established predictors of expected returns to generate their alphas.
A provocative and insightful look at using managed futures to diversify investment portfolios Financial advisors have long ignored managed futures. Yet, in the past thirty years, managed futures have significantly outperformed traditional stock and bond investments. In High-Performance Managed Futures: The New Way to Diversity Your Portfolio, author Mark H. Melin advises investors to question the commonly held belief of stocks and bonds, buy and hold. The first book of its kind, Melin advances a Nobel Prize winning investment method that’s been updated for today’s world to describe how managed futures can be used to design portfolios independent of the ups and downs of the stock market. The book: • Details a new path for managing investments that’s not entirely dependent on the economy at large • Describes meaningful asset diversification, while exposing Wall Street myths on the subject Many of today’s investor’s are betrayed by either short-term thinking or the now outdated buy and hold investing philosophy. High-Performance Managed Futures details how to develop a stock market neutral investment portfolio designed for success in the long-term.
A practical guide to institutional investing success Managed Futures for Institutional Investors is an essential guide that walks you through the important questions that need to be addressed before investing in this asset class and contains helpful direction for investors during the investing process. Backed by years of institutional experience, the authors reveal the opportunities offered by managed futures. They also include information on practices in the managed futures area and present the various analytical tools and building blocks required to use managed futures effectively. The book also contains insight on the issues that must be addressed when building and evaluating portfolios. Shows where to find data to evaluate managed futures and explains how managed futures are regulated Offers guidance on how to apply classic portfolio construction tools to managed futures Reveals how managed futures investments can help investors evaluate and meet risk, return, and liquidity objectives Managed Futures for Institutional Investors provides all the practical information to manage this type of investment well.
An in-depth investigation into the increasingly popular investment: managed futures—written by one of the world's leading authorities "Jack Schwager has written the definitive book on managed futures investing. It is exhaustive in coverage, and the analysis is exceptionally rigorous. The writing is refreshingly candid and sure to provoke discussion on many important topics in the managed futures industry. This book should be required reading for anyone considering investing in managed futures." —Scott Irwin Professor, The Ohio State University "Jack continues to be both an educator and a portfolio manager. Managed Trading is a wonderful book and much needed in the industry. I consider it required reading for investors and financial industry professionals. Finally, a road map which outlines and explores investment issues succinctly." —M. Elaine Crocker President, Moore Capital Management, Inc. "This book is a 'must-read' for anyone thinking of investing in managed futures. Schwager combines the best of academic research on managed futures investments with his own practitioner experience to provide a comprehensive and insightful analysis of the managed futures industry." —Franklin R. Edwards Arthur F. Burns, Professor, Finance and Economics Columbia Business School "The futures markets will continue to grow worldwide. You should read Jack Schwager whether you are contemplating such investments or are already investing, or even if you just want to understand what is happening." —Jim Rogers Author, Investment Biker "Schwager puts managed futures in its proper perspective as a portfolio investment, providing the reader a complete and enlightening tour of the managed futures world. His writing style makes for easy reading and his common sense and good judgment shine through as he surveys the academic literature, linking the practical and the theoretical in evaluating these investments. New investors and old hands alike will find this a 'must buy and hold' book." —Mark J. Powers President, Powers & Dubin Asset Allocation and Management Co. Editor, The Journal of Futures Markets
During bull and bear markets, there is a group of hedge funds and professional traders which have been consistently outperforming traditional investment strategies for the past 30 odd years. They have shown remarkable uncorrelated performance and in the great bear market of 2008 they had record gains. These traders are highly secretive about their proprietary trading algorithms and often employ top PhDs in their research teams. Yet, it is possible to replicate their trading performance with relatively simplistic models. These traders are trend following cross asset futures managers, also known as CTAs. Many books are written about them but none explain their strategies in such detail as to enable the reader to emulate their success and create their own trend following trading business, until now. Following the Trend explains why most hopefuls fail by focusing on the wrong things, such as buy and sell rules, and teaches the truly important parts of trend following. Trading everything from the Nasdaq index and T-bills to currency crosses, platinum and live hogs, there are large gains to be made regardless of the state of the economy or stock markets. By analysing year by year trend following performance and attribution the reader will be able to build a deep understanding of what it is like to trade futures in large scale and where the real problems and opportunities lay. Written by experienced hedge fund manager Andreas Clenow, this book provides a comprehensive insight into the strategies behind the booming trend following futures industry from the perspective of a market participant. The strategies behind the success of this industry are explained in great detail, including complete trading rules and instructions for how to replicate the performance of successful hedge funds. You are in for a potentially highly profitable roller coaster ride with this hard and honest look at the positive as well as the negative sides of trend following.
An up-to-date and practical roadmap for diversified futures trading using CTA fund strategies In the newly revised second edition of Following the Trend: Diversified Managed Futures Trading, renowned hedge fund founder and asset manager Andreas F. Clenow presents a systematic asset management methodology in a way that allows readers to emulate the success of CTA industry professionals. In the book, you’ll find performance and attribution details for every year between 2002 and 2021 and detailed explanations of how the markets, industry, and strategy have evolved between the publication of the first edition and today. The author also offers: Detailed discussions of whether CTA hedge funds continue to show high internal correlation and exhibit homogeneous behaviour The impact of low and negative interest rate environments, massive inflows into equity markets, and the rise of quant trading firms Explorations of the combination of different types of trading models to enhance performance, complete with rulesets and fulsome analyses A ground-breaking and thoroughly incisive examination of the commodity trading advisor industry, Following the Trend: Diversified Managed Futures Trading is an essential volume for sophisticated retail traders, day traders, private investors, investment managers, portfolio managers, and institutional investors.