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The perception of risk to natural hazards is a very complex topic and there are multiple factors that influence it. However, two factors have generally been overlooked. Through the use of mail-out surveys of residents in Beaufort County and Dare County, North Carolina, this research explores how risk perception varies with location and addresses how changes in the characteristics of a hurricane influence the perception of their risk to hurricanes. Location is addressed using two definitions. The first definition used the physical location of the resident (either Inner Banks or Outer Banks), while the second definition used the anticipated impacts from the hurricane (flooding, storm surge, wind damage). This created three locational factors that were tested for their association with risk perception. Hurricane Irene provides an interesting case study because of the change in track and intensity prior to landfall. Using the Chi Square Test for Association, the results show a significant difference in risk perception with location. Based on location on either the Inner Banks or Outer Banks, risk perception varies with respect to the issued advisories. Based on residing in one of the damage areas, risk perception varies with hazards associated with hurricanes. Results also show that track change and intensity change influence the perception of risk. Based on track change, Inner Banks residents believed they were at greater risk and had increases in their perceptions of personal risk. However, based on intensity change, Outer Banks residents perceived themselves to be at more risk than did Inner Banks residents. Overall, a majority of respondents believed that the track change increased the hazards associated with hurricanes, while the intensity reduction decreased them. While both location and damage area show their own associations with risk perception, combining location with damage area presents a broader picture of how risk perception varies with location.
Partial summary - his study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita... A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables’ effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness.
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Humanity is deeply committed to living along the world’s shores, but a catastrophic storm like Sandy—which took hundreds of lives and caused many billions of dollars in damages—shines a bright light at how costly and vulnerable life on a shoreline can be. Taking Chances offers a wide-ranging exploration of the diverse challenges of Sandy and asks if this massive event will really change how coastal living and development is managed. Bringing together leading researchers—including biologists, urban planners, utilities experts, and climatologists, among others—Taking Chances illuminates reactions to the dangers revealed by Sandy. Focusing on New Jersey, New York, and other hard-hit areas, the contributors explore whether Hurricane Sandy has indeed transformed our perceptions of coastal hazards, if we have made radically new plans in response to Sandy, and what we think should be done over the long run to improve coastal resilience. Surprisingly, one essay notes that while a large majority of New Jerseyans identified Sandy with climate change and favored carefully assessing the likelihood of damage from future storms before rebuilding the Shore, their political leaders quickly poured millions into reconstruction. Indeed, much here is disquieting. One contributor points out that investors scared off from further investments on the shore are quickly replaced by new investors, sustaining or increasing the overall human exposure to risk. Likewise, a study of the Gowanus Canal area of Brooklyn shows that, even after Sandy swamped the area with toxic flood waters, plans to convert abandoned industrial lots around the canal into high-density condominiums went on undeterred. By contrast, utilities, emergency officials, and others who routinely make long-term plans have changed operations in response to the storm, and provide examples of adaptation in the face of climate change. Will Sandy be a tipping point in coastal policy debates—or simply dismissed as a once-in-a-century anomaly? This thought-provoking collection of essays in Taking Chances makes an important contribution to this debate.
Findings are reported from two field studies that measured the evolution of coastal residents' risk perceptions and preparation plans as two hurricanes -- Isaac and Sandy -- were approaching the United States coast during the 2012 hurricane season. The data suggest that residents threatened by such storms had a poor understanding of the threat posed by the storms; they over-estimated the likelihood that their homes would be subject to hurricane-force wind conditions, but under-estimated the potential damage that such winds could cause, and they misconstrued the greatest threat as coming from wind rather than water. These misperceptions translated into preparation actions that were not well commensurate with the nature and scale of the threat they faced, with residents being well prepared for a modest wind event of short duration but not for a significant wind-and-water catastrophe. Possible causes of the biases and policy implications for improving hurricane warning communication are discussed.