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As a result of soaring energy demand from a staggering pace of economic growth and the related growth of energy-intensive industry, China overtook the United States to become the world's largest contributor to CO2 emissions in 2007. At the same time, China has taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity by setting both short-term energy intensity reduction goal for 2006 to 2010 as well as long-term carbon intensity reduction goal for 2020. This study focuses on a China Energy Outlook through 2050 that assesses the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its intensity reduction goals. In the past years, LBNL has established and significantly enhanced the China End-Use Energy Model based on the diffusion of end-use technologies and other physical drivers of energy demand. This model presents an important new approach for helping understand China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies through scenario analysis. A baseline ('Continued Improvement Scenario') and an alternative energy efficiency scenario ('Accelerated Improvement Scenario') have been developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to control energy demand growth and mitigate emissions. It is a common belief that China's CO2 emissions will continue to grow throughout this century and will dominate global emissions. The findings from this research suggest that this will not likely be the case because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, railways, fertilizer use, and urbanization will peak around 2030 with slowing population growth. The baseline and alternative scenarios also demonstrate that the 2020 goals can be met and underscore the significant role that policy-driven energy efficiency improvements will play in carbon mitigation along with a decarbonized power supply through greater renewable and non-fossil fuel generation.
This book seeks to model the possible emission trajectories and identify the feasible mitigation schemes for China to meet its climate commitments to peak emissions before 2030 and net zero emissions before 2060. In line with these ambitions, China has taken a number of measures to improve carbon efficiency and energy structure in recent years. The book first analyzes changes in the carbon footprint at the city level, identify the different pathways to peak emissions by province and industry, and develop a bottom-up approach to determining when and how China could reach peak emissions. It then illustrates how the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) reduces abatement costs, and examines the cost-saving effects under carbon intensity reduction and peak emissions targets. Based on the findings and the status quo in China, the authors propose a multicriteria allocation scheme for carbon emission allowances at the provincial level and quantify the impact of sectoral coverage on the abatement costs of the ETS by developing a cost-based approach to sectoral coverage in China. In addition, the co-benefits between CO2 and PM2.5 reductions as a result of the ETS operation are elaborated. The book will benefit researchers and policy-makers interested in environmental governance, climate policy, environmental economics, and sustainable development.
While China is on track to meet its global climate commitments through 2020, China's post-2020 CO2 emissions trajectory is highly uncertain, with projections varying widely across studies. Over the past year, the Chinese government has announced new policy directives to deepen economic reform, protect the environment, and limit fossil energy use in China. To evaluate how new policy directives could affect energy and climate change outcomes, we simulate two levels of policy effort -- a Continued Effort scenario that extends current policies beyond 2020 and an Accelerated Effort scenario that reflects newly announced policies -- on the evolution of China's energy and economic system over the next several decades. Importantly, we find that both levels of policy effort would bend down the CO2 emissions trajectory before 2050 without undermining economic development, although coal use and CO2 emissions peak about 10 years earlier in the Accelerated Effort scenario.
As a result of soaring energy demand from a staggering pace of economic expansion and the related growth of energy-intensive industry, China overtook the United States to become the world's largest contributor to CO2 emissions in 2007. At the same time, China has taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity by setting both a short-term energy intensity reduction goal for 2006 to 2010 as well as a long-term carbon intensity reduction goal for 2020. This study presents a China Energy Outlook through 2050 that assesses the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its intensity reduction goals. Over the past few years, LBNL has established and significantly enhanced its China End-Use Energy Model which is based on the diffusion of end-use technologies and other physical drivers of energy demand. This model presents an important new approach for helping understand China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies through scenario analysis. A baseline ('Continued Improvement Scenario') and an alternative energy efficiency scenario ('Accelerated Improvement Scenario') have been developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to control energy demand growth and mitigate emissions. In addition, this analysis also evaluated China's long-term domestic energy supply in order to gauge the potential challenge China may face in meeting long-term demand for energy. It is a common belief that China's CO2 emissions will continue to grow throughout this century and will dominate global emissions. The findings from this research suggest that this will not necessarily be the case because saturation in ownership of appliances, construction of residential and commercial floor area, roadways, railways, fertilizer use, and urbanization will peak around 2030 with slowing population growth. The baseline and alternative scenarios also demonstrate that China's 2020 goals can be met and underscore the significant role that policy-driven energy efficiency improvements will play in carbon mitigation along with a decarbonized power supply through greater renewable and non-fossil fuel generation.
While China is on track to meet its global climate commitments through 2020, China's post-2020 CO2 emissions trajectory is highly uncertain,with projections varying widely across studies. Over the past year, the Chinese government has announced new policy directives to deepen economic reform, to protect the environment, and to limit fossil energy use in China. To evaluate how new policy directives could affect energy and climate change outcomes, we simulate two levels of policy effort--a continued effort scenario that extends current policies beyond 2020 and an accelerated effort scenario that reflects newly announced policies--on the evolution of China's energy and economic system over the next several decades. We perform simulations using the China in- Global Energy model, C-GEM, a bespoke recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model with global coverage and detailed calibration of China's economy and future trends. Importantly,we find that both levels of policy effort would bend down the CO2 emissions trajectory before 2050 without undermining economic development. Specifically, in the accelerated effort scenario, we find that coal use peaks around 2020, and CO2 emissions level off around 2030 at 10 bmt, without undermining continued economic growth consistent with China reaching the status of a "well-off society" by 2050.
The primary approach to address climate change in China has been the use of CO2 intensity targets coupled with targets for low carbon energy deployment. We evaluate the impact of extending similar targets through 2050 on China's energy use profile and CO2 emissions trajectory using the China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM). The C-GEM is a global computable equilibrium model that includes energy and economic data provided by China's statistical agencies, calibration of savings, labor productivity, and capital productivity dynamics specific to China's stage of development, and regional aggregation that resolves China's major trading partners. We analyze the combined impact of extending CO2 intensity targets, implemented via a cap-and-trade program, and low carbon energy policies (directives for nuclear power expansion and feed-in tariffs for wind, solar, and biomass energy) through 2050. Although with the policy, simulated CO2 emissions are around 43% lower in 2050 relative to a reference (No Policy) counterfactual, China's CO2 emissions still increase by over 60% between 2010 and 2050. Curbing the rise in China's CO2 emissions will require fully implementing a CO2 price, which will need to rise to levels higher than $25/ton in order to achieve China's stated goal of peaking CO2 emissions by 2030.
China’s future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of China’s future in the post-Mao era. This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains – political, economic, environmental, and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts, the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks. Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine China’s future direction, this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to readers in business and government.
This outlook highlights climate-safe investment options until 2050, policies for transition and specific regional challenges. It also explores options to eventually cut emissions to zero.
Climate change resulting from CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions poses a huge threat to human welfare. To contain that threat, the world needs to cut emissions by about 50 per cent by 2050, and to start cutting emissions now. A global agreement to take action is vital. A fair global deal will require the UK to cut emissions by at least 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. In this report, the Committee on Climate Change explains why the UK should aim for an 80 per cent reduction by 2050 and how that is attainable, and then recommends the first three budgets that will define the path to 2022. But the path is attainable at manageable cost, and following it is essential if the UK is to play its fair part in avoiding the far higher costs of harmful climate change. Part 1 of the report addresses the 2050 target. The 80 per cent target should apply to the sum of all sectors of the UK economy, including international aviation and shipping. The costs to the UK from this level of emissions reduction can be made affordable - estimated at between 1-2 per cent of GDP in 2050. In part 2, the Committee sets out the first three carbon budgets covering the period 2008-22, and examines the feasible reductions possible in various sectors: decarbonising the power sector; energy use in buildings and industry; reducing domestic transport emissions; reducing emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases; economy wide emissions reductions to meet budgets. The third part of the report examines wider economic and social impacts from budgets including competitiveness, fuel poverty, security of supply, and differences in circumstances between the regions of the UK.