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This volume presents 115 options that would decrease federal spending or increase federal revenues over the next decade. The federal budget deficit in fiscal year (FY) 2016 totaled $587 billion or 3.2 percent (%) of gross domestic product (GDP), up 2.5 percent (%) in year 2015. The options cover many areas ranging from defense to energy, Social Security and provisions of the tax code. This edition reports the estimated budgetary effects of various options and highlights some of the advantages and disadvantages of those options. Students pursuing research for economic coursework in high school, community college, and university levels may be interested in this vision presented by the Congressional Budget Office, Additionally, economists, federal budget analysts, political science scholars, financial planners, and lawmakers may be interested in this official resource. Related products: Other products produced by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) are available here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/agency/237Economic Policy resources collection can be found here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/budget-economy/economic-policyEconomic Development publications are available here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/budget-economy/economic-development
The Congress faces an array of policy choices as it confronts the prospect of large annual budget deficits and further increases in the already-large government debt that are projected to occur in coming decades under cur-rent law. To help inform lawmakers about the budgetary implications of changing federal policies, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) periodically issues volumes of policy options and their effects on the federal budget, of which this is the most recent. The agency also issues separate reports that present policy options in particular areas. This document provides estimates of the budgetary savings from 79 options that would decrease federal spending or increase federal revenues over the next decade. The estimates are updates of many of those presented in Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2014 to 2023 (November 2013). The options cover a broad range of areas in the federal budget, including defense, energy, Social Security, health care programs, other benefit pro-grams, and provisions of the tax code (see Table 1-1). The budgetary effects identified for most of the options span the 10 years from 2015 to 2024 (the period covered by CBO's baseline budget projections in 2014), although many of the options would have longer-term effects as well. This document presents options in the following categories: Mandatory spending other than that for health-related programs Discretionary spending other than that for health-related programs, Revenues other than those related to health, and Health-related programs and revenue provisions. For each option, this document includes a brief description of the policy involved. For additional information, including discussion of advantages and disadvantages, see the version of that option in the November 2013 volume. This document also includes an appendix that lists options that CBO has analyzed previously but for which no budgetary estimates are presented. Those options are drawn from two sources. Some were analyzed in the November 2013 volume but would take considerable time to reanalyze; in order to make this document avail-able prior to the beginning of the 114th Congress in January 2015, those estimates were not updated. Others, taken from various reports issued by CBO, were listed in Appendix A of last year's report. Certain options from those two sources are omitted from this document's appendix for one of two reasons. Some have been superseded by subsequent legislation or administrative action. For others, CBO's previous estimates of budgetary savings are probably no longer useful because of changes that have been made by legislation or administrative action, economic developments, or changes in other aspects of CBO's analysis. The options included in this document originally came from a variety of sources. Some are based on proposed legislation or on the budget proposals of various Administrations; others come from Congressional offices or from entities in the federal government or the private sector. As a collection, the options are intended to reflect a range of possibilities, not a ranking of priorities or an exhaustive list. Inclusion or exclusion of any particular option does not imply approval or disapproval by CBO, and the report makes no recommendations.
From the Introduction: This volume presents 103 options that would decrease federal spending of increase federal revenues over the next decade. Those options cover many areas-ranging from defense to energy, Social Security, and provisions of the tax code. The budgetary effects identified for most of the options span the 10 years from 2014 to 2023 (the period covered by CBO's May 2013 baseline budget projections), although many of the options would have longer-term effects as well. Chapters 2 through 5 present options in the following categories: Chapter 2: Mandatory spending other than that for health-related programs; Chapter 3: Discretionary spending other than that for health-related programs, Chapter 4: revenues other than those related to health; Chapter 5: Health-related programs and revenue provisions. In addition to 11 options that are similar in scope to others in this volume, Chapter 5 includes 5 broad approaches for reducing spending on health care programs or revenues forgone because of tax provisions related to health care. Each would offer lawmakers a variety of possibilities for making changes in current laws. Chapter 6 differs from the rest of the volume; it discusses the challenges and the potential budgetary effects of eliminating a cabinet department.
High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.
This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.
Although the future extent and effects of global climate change remain uncertain, the expected damages are not zero, and risks of serious environmental and macroeconomic consequences rise with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Despite the uncertainties, reducing emissions now makes sense, and a carbon tax is the simplest, most effective, and least costly way to do this. At the same time, a carbon tax would provide substantial new revenues which may be badly needed, given historically high debt-to-GDP levels, pressures on social security and medical budgets, and calls to reform taxes on personal and corporate income. This book is about the practicalities of introducing a carbon tax, set against the broader fiscal context. It consists of thirteen chapters, written by leading experts, covering the full range of issues policymakers would need to understand, such as the revenue potential of a carbon tax, how the tax can be administered, the advantages of carbon taxes over other mitigation instruments and the environmental and macroeconomic impacts of the tax. A carbon tax can work in the United States. This volume shows how, by laying out sound design principles, opportunities for broader policy reforms, and feasible solutions to specific implementation challenges.
"A lively attack on politicians, voters and government. Bovard's indictment of an ineffective but ever-expanding federal government would make any libertarian proud." --New York Post Does the people's need to believe in the president trump their duty to understand, to think critically, and demand truth? Have Americans been conditioned to ignore political frauds and believe the lies perpetuated by campaign ads? James Bovard diagnoses a national malady called "Attention Deficit Democracy," characterized by a citizenry that seems to be paying less attention to facts, and is less capable of judging when their rights and liberties are under attack. Bovard's careful research combined with his characteristically caustic style will give "ADD" a whole new meaning that pundits, politicians, and we the people will find hard to ignore.