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In this partial and selective literature review of option implied risk-neutral distributions and of implied binomial trees, we start by observing that in efficient markets, there is information contained in option prices, which might help us to design option pricing models. To this end, we review the numerous methods of recovering risk-neutral probability distributions from option prices at one particular time-to-expiration and their applications. Next, we extend our attention beyond one time-to-expiration to the construction of implied binomial trees, which model the stochastic process of the underlying asset. Finally, we describe extensions of implied binomial trees, which incorporate stochastic volatility, as well as other non-parametric methods.
1. 1 The Area of Research In this thesis, we will investigate the 'market-conform' pricing of newly issued contingent claims. A contingent claim is a derivative whose value at any settlement date is determined by the value of one or more other underlying assets, e. g. , forwards, futures, plain-vanilla or exotic options with European or American-style exercise features. Market-conform pricing means that prices of existing actively traded securities are taken as given, and then the set of equivalent martingale measures that are consistent with the initial prices of the traded securities is derived using no-arbitrage arguments. Sometimes in the literature other expressions are used for 'market-conform' valuation - 'smile-consistent' valuation or 'fair-market' valuation - that describe the same basic idea. The seminal work by Black and Scholes (1973) (BS) and Merton (1973) mark a breakthrough in the problem of hedging and pricing contingent claims based on no-arbitrage arguments. Harrison and Kreps (1979) provide a firm mathematical foundation for the Black-Scholes- Merton analysis. They show that the absence of arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of an equivalent martingale measure. Under this mea sure the normalized security price process forms a martingale and so securities can be valued by taking expectations. If the securities market is complete, then the equivalent martingale measure and hence the price of any security are unique.
Highlights research in derivatives modelling and markets in a post-crisis world across a number of dimensions or themes. This book addresses the following main areas: derivatives models and pricing, model application and performance backtesting, and new products and market features.
This book covers the classical results on single-period, discrete-time, and continuous-time models of portfolio choice and asset pricing. It also treats asymmetric information, production models, various proposed explanations for the equity premium puzzle, and topics important for behavioral finance.
Decision-makers in business and economics face a staggering array of problems. For example, managers of growing firms have to decide when to expand their business, governments have to decide whether to undertake large infrastructure investments, and managers of oil firms must decide how rapidly to deplete their reserves. While these problems seem quite diverse, they all share many important features. In each case, the decision-maker must choose when to take a particular action that will be potentially impossible to reverse, and the consequences of taking (or not taking) that action are uncertain. Also, the timing and nature of these actions directly affect the cash flows generated by the entities they manage. This book explains how techniques originally developed to price financial derivatives can be used to analyze real-world decisions, and provides the tools necessary to put them into practice. The real options analysis approach to decision-making is built on strong theoretical foundations, and is widely discussed in practitioner literature, but often only at a fairly intuitive level. What practitioners need-and what this book delivers-is a structured approach to systematically applying real options analysis to the wide variety of problems they will meet in business and economics. Real Options in Theory and Practice focuses on building up a general approach to solving real options problems from the ground up. Rather than aiming to build a "black box" to solve a small set of standardized real options problems, it describes the building blocks of any successful real options analysis and shows how they can be assembled in a way that is appropriate to the problem being analyzed. For both practitioners and academics, Real Options in Theory and Practice will serve as an authoritative and invaluable resource for those looking for effective and practical solutions to complex, real-life problems.
Economists do more than merely describe an external economic world. They shape it in the image of their theories and models. This idea, following the philosophy of language, puts forward that economic theories are performative, and not only descriptive. This idea has become a powerful critique of the scientificity of economics since it removes the idea of an external world against which our description could be evaluated as truth. If any theory can become true, there are no true theories per se because there is no such thing as a pre-existing economy to describe. Is such a relativist stance a fatality? This is the question at stake in this book. Furthermore, the author asks if any theory is able to ‘perform’ the social reality, or are there actually some limits to performativity? For philosophers, a performative statement is a statement that cannot fail to mean something, but can fail to do what it calls for. The state of the world may or may not be changed; the performative statement may be happy or unhappy. In economic terms, this can be interpreted as: some theories change the world while some do not. This book argues that this possibility of failure, a perspective previously missing from discussions on the subject, should be at the heart of any definition of failure. Taking on the question of why some theories change the world while others do not, this volume will be of interest to those studying advances courses on the philosophy of economics as well as those studying and researching in the areas of the philosophy of sciences and sociology of science and economics.
This collection of original articles—8 years in the making—shines a bright light on recent advances in financial econometrics. From a survey of mathematical and statistical tools for understanding nonlinear Markov processes to an exploration of the time-series evolution of the risk-return tradeoff for stock market investment, noted scholars Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Lars Peter Hansen benchmark the current state of knowledge while contributors build a framework for its growth. Whether in the presence of statistical uncertainty or the proven advantages and limitations of value at risk models, readers will discover that they can set few constraints on the value of this long-awaited volume. - Presents a broad survey of current research—from local characterizations of the Markov process dynamics to financial market trading activity - Contributors include Nobel Laureate Robert Engle and leading econometricians - Offers a clarity of method and explanation unavailable in other financial econometrics collections
Risk measures play a vital role in many subfields of economics and finance. It has been proposed that risk measures could be analysed in relation to the performance of variables extracted from empirical real-world data. For example, risk measures may help inform effective monetary and fiscal policies and, therefore, the further development of pricing models for financial assets such as equities, bonds, currencies, and derivative securities.A Special Issue of “Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics” will be devoted to advancements in the mathematical and statistical development of risk measures with applications in finance and economics. This Special Issue will bring together the theory, practice and real-world applications of risk measures. This book is a collection of papers published in the Special Issue of “Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics” for Sustainability in 2018.
Who could have predicted that the S ́ eminaire de Probabilit ́ es would reach the age of 40? This long life is ?rst due to the vitality of the French probabil- tic school, for which the S ́ eminaire remains one of the most speci?c media of exchange. Another factor is the amount of enthusiasm, energy and time invested year after year by the R ́ edacteurs: Michel Ledoux dedicated himself tothistaskuptoVolumeXXXVIII,andMarcYormadehisnameinseparable from the S ́ eminaire by devoting himself to it during a quarter of a century. Browsing among the past volumes can only give a faint glimpse of how much is owed to them; keeping up with the standard they have set is a challenge to the new R ́ edaction. In a changing world where the status of paper and ink is questioned and where, alas, pressure for publishing is increasing, in particular among young mathematicians, we shall try and keep the same direction. Although most contributions are anonymously refereed, the S ́ eminaire is not a mathema- cal journal; our ?rst criterion is not mathematical depth, but usefulness to the French and international probabilistic community. We do not insist that everything published in these volumes should have reached its ?nal form or be original, and acceptance–rejection may not be decided on purely scienti?c grounds.