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My research has focused on two inter-related questions. First, how do we model the impacts of terrorism and earthquake events on electric power systems? Second, how might we optimize investments in these systems when there are limited resources? For intentional attack we model the interaction between the offender and the operator of the network where both parties have limited budgets and behave in their own selfinterest. The problem was formulated as a multi-level mixed-integer programming problem and we implemented a Tabu search with an embedded greedy algorithm to find the optimum defense strategy. We model the regional earthquake hazard using a four step process that included an optimization problem to select a small collection of events from a candidate set, including a probability of occurrence for each event that matches the hazard. Since electric power systems are spatially distributed, their performance is driven by the joint distribution for damage of the components. Hence we estimated this distribution by constructing a collection of consequence scenarios for each earthquake scenario, where each consequence scenario identifies the level of damage to each component. For each consequence scenario, we used an economic dispatch model to predict the load shed and repair costs throughout the repair process. We expanded the analysis of the power network under the seismic risk by modeling the additional impact of cascading outages and the consequences on the air passenger transportation system due to the interdependency of both networks. We formulated the problem of selecting seismic mitigation strategies to increase resilience of electric power system to earthquake hazards as a two-stage stochastic program. We develop a custom solution procedure which we show to be computationally effective for extremely large problem instances.
The papers in this volume integrate results from current research efforts in earthquake engineering with research from the larger risk assessment community. The authors include risk and hazard researchers from the major U.S. hazard and earthquake centers. The volume lays out a road map for future developments in risk modeling and decision support, and positions earthquake engineering research within the family of risk analysis tools and techniques.
Presents various challenges faced by security policy makers and risk analysts, and mathematical approaches that inform homeland security policy development and decision support Compiled by a group of highly qualified editors, this book provides a clear connection between risk science and homeland security policy making and includes top-notch contributions that uniquely highlight the role of risk analysis for informing homeland security policy decisions. Featuring discussions on various challenges faced in homeland security risk analysis, the book seamlessly divides the subject of risk analysis for homeland security into manageable chapters, which are organized by the concept of risk-informed decisions, methodology for applying risk analysis, and relevant examples and case studies. Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions offers an enlightening overview of risk analysis methods for homeland security. For instance, it presents readers with an exploration of radiological and nuclear risk assessment, along with analysis of uncertainties in radiological and nuclear pathways. It covers the advances in risk analysis for border security, as well as for cyber security. Other topics covered include: strengthening points of entry; systems modeling for rapid containment and casualty mitigation; and disaster preparedness and critical infrastructure resilience. Highlights how risk analysis helps in the decision-making process for homeland security policy Presents specific examples that detail how various risk analysis methods provide decision support for homeland security policy makers and risk analysts Describes numerous case studies from academic, government, and industrial perspectives that apply risk analysis methods for addressing challenges within the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Offers detailed information regarding each of the five DHS missions: prevent terrorism and enhance security; secure and manage our borders; enforce and administer our immigration laws; safeguard and secure cyberspace; and strengthen national preparedness and resilience Discusses the various approaches and challenges faced in homeland risk analysis and identifies improvements and methodological advances that influenced DHS to adopt an increasingly risk-informed basis for decision-making Written by top educators and professionals who clearly illustrate the link between risk science and homeland security policy making Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions is an excellent textbook and/or supplement for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses related to homeland security risk analysis. It will also be an extremely beneficial resource and reference for homeland security policy analysts, risk analysts, and policymakers from private and public sectors, as well as researchers, academics, and practitioners who utilize security risk analysis methods.
Drawing on international, state and private sector case studies and a global survey, this book examines local engagement in disaster relief.
IFED is sponsored and organized by the Five-University Consortium on Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making in Engineering. Forums are held every 12-18 months, to provide an opportunity to share exciting developments, and to stimulate new initiatives in engineering decision making and risk analysis for engineering systems.